Announcement tomorrow what are youre predictions?

[Amira19]

PM is due to make an announcement tomorrow what are youre predictions. I suspect larges area of the North moving from tier 3 to tier 4 and potentially tier 5 (closing schools) in London. Personally I think a full lockdown like March is required too many are mixing between the tiers and thats all those posting in social media.

Our local ice rink put out an announcement telling people not to book and travel from outside the area as they would not honour the bookings. Apparently people from tier 3 were booking for a trip out.

It’s not about cases tho it’s abkut cases in over 60s and capacity

Perhaps Manchester is in better situation - like Liverpool right now

I think they will have to have a curfew or something on NyE?

It’s not true that Hospitals don’t test for Covid. My DF was tested on the way in and negative, then on discharge he was positive so was sent back up!

This was London hospital and back in June.

@Pastanred

Well I can tell you there are

Even Liverpool right now has covid beds 1:3 that they had last month

There’s a lot of people in hospital for conditions other than covid. If the covid numbers rise they have extra surge beds and stop admitting people for other reasons. They also discharge much sooner or use step down beds in intermediate care/ nursing homes. We have minimal hospital beds per head of population, beds are not left empty.

So DS lives in Birmingham. He works from home but why is Birmingham rates so high?

Yes, I was admitted over the summer and had to have a test before they'd send me to a ward.

@PurpleDaisies

Tier 4 approved for parts of the SW and Cumbria according to the Times (must be noted here that Cumbria is currently still only T2).

Cumbria has a higher proportion of the new variant and their cases have been shooting up. They really ought to have been in tier 3 (at least) last time.

Is that tier 4 for all Cumbria or just Eden?

So don’t know why someone would say something like this re testing in hospital for CV19. Scaremongering?
I know there wasn’t tests at the beginning but that was months and months ago. Could you imagine a hospital not testing someone now on discharge?

AstraZeneca vaccine approval, and maybe school closure.

Tier 4 greatly extended.
Secondary schools except yr11 and 13 shut in Tier 3/4
Uni's return but switch to on-line learning. If uni's can't return there will have to be a bail out over the acco fees this time (adjustments to student loans).

What time will the announcement be tomorrow?
And do we know when tier changes come into effect?

I am in tier 2, almost like normal here, but more people wearing masks outdoors,
I think we will at least be moved to tier 3, but I think a total lockdown is needed
Afew people trying to come in from tier 3 lots of fines for those caught , £200 in most cases

@Pastanred where do you find what capacity local hospitals are at?

Re Manchester and T4.

Manchester is currently doing ok for the new strain - very few cases indeed, however the MP for Warrington north tweeted last week that there was a problem in the town that was concerning the government and had caught their attention.

Warrington has close ties with its neighbour Trafford for work and schools and its my suspicion that if Warrington has a problem with the new strain as suggested, then so does Trafford. And that does seem to be consistent with the figures coming out of Trafford - they are following the pattern of Warrington, Cheshire West and Cheshire East closely (which are also known to have a higher number of the new strain than the city) and this seems to differ slightly from the pattern of the rest of the city.

Add to this, if anyone who has seen pictures of the Trafford Centre this week should be a real cause for concern. The reports of the overcrowding and lack of compliance wearing masks are alarming. The centre attracts people from all over the North West.

So my suspicion is that the cat is well and truly out of the bag for Manchester, but the government will make a point of trying to keep it out of T4 as long as possible.

From the current figures there is a compelling case for Birmingham and the West Midlands to go into T4. But no so much for Manchester. Yet. But thats half the point... It probably should be to stop the problem even happening at this point.

I personally think there is little to justify not putting the whole country into T4 tomorrow. And i dont say that lightly.

The situation is just too critical at this point and we still have a couple of weeks at least before we hit a peak.

@Armi

Exactly! Well said!.. ita all about keeping parents working so that tax is being paid into system.. dont give a shit about teachers or school staff 😠 worst part is.. they wont admit it .. all this bullshit of kids dont spread it... laughable

OP where did you see there will be announcement by PM tomorrow? All I can see being reported is Matt Hancock due to make planned statement to HoC in the afternoon.

@Bathroom12345

So DS lives in Birmingham. He works from home but why is Birmingham rates so high?

Because people aren't complying.

Because we are densely populated.

Combine the two and it's a recipe for disaster.

I think it is Matt Hancock in Commons tooo, like just before Christmas when he announced most recent tier changes

Universities were never going back in early Jan, they were on a five week gradual reintroduction plan, with students only fully returning, if safe, in the last week in Jan/Beg of Feb, so our plans are not dramatically altered, we were doing online exams then two weeks online, then seeing what was happening after that. You are right whoever said it that this will affect accommodation fees for some in uni halls, private landlords can do what they like but they may not fancy taking their chances in the courts anyway, as there's a huge backlog.

T1 into T2
T2 into T3
T3 into T4
T4 upgraded to T5
All T4 &T5 areas will see school closures, and T3 and above will probably see a tightening of which businesses are allowed to open. I think that many of the "essential" retailers will be told to shut.

The plan for unis 2021 was decided last term, so the government can think ahead when they try, unlike for schools which appears to be a head in sand situation.

3 o'clock apparently

My prediction is secondaries closed til end January but primaries open. Then primaries also closed in another couple of weeks.

I'm not sending my primary aged DC back regardless.

3 o'clock apparently

So that'll be 7.30