Daily stats, numbers, data thread 28 Dec

[PatriciaHolm]

UK govt pressers Slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots imperialcollegelondon.github.io/covid19local/#table
School statistics Attendance explore-education-[statistics.service.gov.uk/find-statistics/attendance-in-education-and-early-years-settings-during-the-coronavirus-covid-19-outbreak]]
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHs England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSAO Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
CovidMessenger live update by council district in England www.covidmessenger.com/
Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, tests, ONS deaths [[public.tableau.com/profile/public.health.wales.health.protection#!/vizhome/RapidCOVID-19virology-Public/Headlinesummary
NI Dashboard app.powerbi.com/view?r=eyJrIjoiZGYxNjYzNmUtOTlmZS00ODAxLWE1YTEtMjA0NjZhMzlmN2JmIiwidCI6IjljOWEzMGRlLWQ4ZDctNGFhNC05NjAwLTRiZTc2MjVmZjZjNSIsImMiOjh9]]
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe Uk data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK read https_www.ecdc.europa.eu/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.ecdc.europa.eu%2Fen%2Fcases-2019-ncov-eueea
Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=gbr&areas=fra&areas=esp&areas=ita&areas=deu&areas=swe&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&byDate=1&cumulative=1&logScale=1&per100K=1&values=deaths
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/3869571-Studies-corner?msgid=99913434

We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these

Ah - timely question - how does the increase in today's positive results figure compare with change in total tests done to generate that number, do we know?

The point may be more relevant at times when the number of tests done is increasing sharply - I'm not sure if that's the case at the moment (though I think in some areas testing has been opened to people without the main three symptoms?).

Cripes. 53K

I am eager to see the spread across councils - I will post as soon as the councils table is updated.

High number today, but by specimen date, and ignoring the 4k from today, since 21st, the last 7 days, and over the xmas period, we have averaged 35k a day, which is probably (in current terms) about right.

Does this now include the backlog of Scottish tests from the 24th?

53,135 cases
414 deaths

Isn't 414 'good', though? I thought deaths had reached 700 sometime last week

@Aixenprovence - coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/testing; if you scroll you can open a data tab for figures, last 7 days are up 0.5% on previous week (so roughly the same):
Date - Daily virus tests conducted - Cumulative
28-12-2020 - 357,238 - 51,289,157
27-12-2020 - 352,702 - 50,931,123
26-12-2020 - 269,876 - 50,509,650
25-12-2020 - 339,024 - 50,239,228
24-12-2020 - 463,123 - 49,899,989
23-12-2020 - 509,507 - 49,436,437
22-12-2020 - 453,903 - etc etc etc

@AKissAndASmile

*53,135 cases 414 deaths*

Isn't 414 'good', though? I thought deaths had reached 700 sometime last week

Unfortunately there are some delays in reporting deaths, so it's not an accurate figure.

@BigWoollyJumpers

High number today, but by specimen date, and ignoring the 4k from today, since 21st, the last 7 days, and over the xmas period, we have averaged 35k a day, which is probably (in current terms) about right.

I’m sure there is a lot of delay in the figure, thanks for this

@MRex

Ah yes, Basildon was definitely hitting 10-14 first, yes. Not leaving that age group either. It's disappointing to see 90+ infection clusters in each of these areas at different times too; those must be care home / hospital infections surely?

What concerns me is that parents who are carers could be unknowingly taking the virus into work, especially if it's more contagious, and then it spreads easily in care homes.

Thanks MRex - very useful!

Another question - should you (I) compare a) the increase in positive results for 7 days to 28th against b) the increase in total tests for 7 days to 28th - or should the (b) deonominator be a couple of days earlier to allow for, say, a 24/48 hr wait for test results? (I realise there isn't the same delay for lateral flow tests, which complicates the issue further!).

@Aixenprovence

Ah - timely question - how does the increase in today's positive results figure compare with change in total tests done to generate that number, do we know?

The point may be more relevant at times when the number of tests done is increasing sharply - I'm not sure if that's the case at the moment (though I think in some areas testing has been opened to people without the main three symptoms?).

You can calculate it, certainly, from the data.

In fact, 7 day average of cases by specimen date to 27th (which won't be complete though) is stable, whilst the 7 day average of Pillar 2 tests from 21-28th is up 11%. Including Pillar 1, it's up 3.5%.

So whilst the headline number is startling, there is a fair amount of backdating going on, as well as delayed testing from the 24/25/26th. Looking at it by specimen date and with testing in mind, the situation seems to have stablised a little at present.

@Aixenprovence

Thanks MRex - very useful! Another question - should you (I) compare a) the increase in positive results for 7 days to 28th against b) the increase in total tests for 7 days to 28th - or should the (b) deonominator be a couple of days earlier to allow for, say, a 24/48 hr wait for test results? (I realise there isn't the same delay for lateral flow tests, which complicates the issue further!).

I always drop a day back - it's pretty clear, for example, from the drop in test numbers on the 26th that that relates to specimens taken on 25th.

Graph from RP131 on Twitter which shows positives by specimen date and I think helps to see the backlog effect.

This week is likely to be pretty bad for reporting deaths - if you look at the all cause mortality charts there's always a dip in the last week of December and a peak in the first week of January.

Re the cumulative tests though, isn't a bit premature to even suggest things have stabilised? As there may be other results coming in over the next few days that pertain to today?

The cases in councils table is updated with latest data on www.covidmessenger.com

A word of caution - the swab sample date is 24th Dec so there is a notable drop in cases (and preliminary data suggest the same is true - unsurprisingly - for Dec 25th and then the upward trend picks up again).

For anyone curious, the daily figure reported (53K today) is by reporting date not by swab date. There are nuances to this deffering date reporting methods.

I know I am being hopefully optimistic - but is there a chance that there was a test result delay in turnaround for swabs taken 25th Dec so we have a bit of an "overflow" of results being recorded today on the reporting date?

It's possible although my gut says the surge in cases will dwarf that affect. Just trying to be hopeful.....

Thanks again Patricia -

"Looking at it by specimen date and with testing in mind, the situation seems to have stablised a little at present."
Not a message that I would necessarily have taken from the headlines about the 50k figure! - really interesting to have this perspective.

@Aixenprovence - to be strictly accurate it would be cases by specimen date after allowing a 5 day delay.

Thank you all for this afternoon’s data.

@herecomesthsun

Re the cumulative tests though, isn't a bit premature to even suggest things have stabilised? As there may be other results coming in over the next few days that pertain to today?

Oh yes - there will be more results in for the last few days still. But even so, looking at the interplay of increased tests vs increases cases, the positivity ratio isn't increasing and won't substantially unless the number of positive results rockets from backdated data.

I don't mean to suggest all is fine; far from it. But a headline of "51k" is much more complicated than it looks.

And FWIW, I wouldn't be surprised if we do see a little levelling off this week, as schools have now been closed for at least 12 days, and any impact of the Christmas mixing won't be felt for another 3-4 days probably.

Guys serious question. Why are you so comfortable debating stats that are easily debated or solvable on line but more tricky/interesting/debatable issues are off grid? I’m honestly interested. Is it more comfortable to debate stuff for which the answer is easy?

@Oaktree55

Guys serious question. Why are you so comfortable debating stats that are easily debated or solvable on line but more tricky/interesting/debatable issues are off grid? I’m honestly interested. Is it more comfortable to debate stuff for which the answer is easy?

Because this it the data thread, started so that it was easy to find the figures and explanations. There is a whole board for the other debates.

Thanks mrex, and that would have to be divided by the number of tests taken on each day as well, to be strictly accurate?

Presumably that figure is calculated somewhere - would be interesting to have it published along with the daily total headline figure.

@Oaktree55

Guys serious question. Why are you so comfortable debating stats that are easily debated or solvable on line but more tricky/interesting/debatable issues are off grid? I’m honestly interested. Is it more comfortable to debate stuff for which the answer is easy?

Because this is the data thread?

Oak quite simply i do not understand vaccines & don't like to pretend I know what I am talking about.

I live with a scientist & I don't think he would really understand it all & he has a lot more knowledge than me......

Thats not to say I can't read papers & research the opinions of others, but I don't feel qualified to know if they actually know what they are talking about!

Data, I can understand a bit more.