Daily stats, numbers, data thread 28 Dec

[PatriciaHolm]

UK govt pressers Slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots imperialcollegelondon.github.io/covid19local/#table
School statistics Attendance explore-education-[statistics.service.gov.uk/find-statistics/attendance-in-education-and-early-years-settings-during-the-coronavirus-covid-19-outbreak]]
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHs England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSAO Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
CovidMessenger live update by council district in England www.covidmessenger.com/
Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, tests, ONS deaths [[public.tableau.com/profile/public.health.wales.health.protection#!/vizhome/RapidCOVID-19virology-Public/Headlinesummary
NI Dashboard app.powerbi.com/view?r=eyJrIjoiZGYxNjYzNmUtOTlmZS00ODAxLWE1YTEtMjA0NjZhMzlmN2JmIiwidCI6IjljOWEzMGRlLWQ4ZDctNGFhNC05NjAwLTRiZTc2MjVmZjZjNSIsImMiOjh9]]
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe Uk data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK read https_www.ecdc.europa.eu/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.ecdc.europa.eu%2Fen%2Fcases-2019-ncov-eueea
Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=gbr&areas=fra&areas=esp&areas=ita&areas=deu&areas=swe&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&byDate=1&cumulative=1&logScale=1&per100K=1&values=deaths
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/3869571-Studies-corner?msgid=99913434

We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these

@lunar but it’s an echo chamber!!!! Unlikely to come up with helpful insights at a personal or community level.

I think you probably have a better understanding than me. I don't feel capable of debating it.

You must all question at the v min if this thread is an echo chamber bullying out those who dare to question?!?!

Oak he's not really been saying to much other than he would be vaccinated. Our friends too.

Its definitely not a lucrative career, no matter how many years you spend at uni

That’s all I’m saying my 13 year old days are behind me but Ladies please think critically!

Is the positivity rate staying stable though?

Some of this is behavioural surely? Eg I had a test for a cold (Zoe request) as I was planning to see my parents, but was sure it wasn’t covid so may not have bothered otherwise. So lots more people testing in run up to Xmas = much more positives but actual rate isn’t much higher? I’m not sure where to find the info sorry I know it’s been posted somewhere on here before .

[quote Oaktree55]@lunar but it’s an echo chamber!!!! Unlikely to come up with helpful insights at a personal or community level.[/quote]
Given we are at thread 30-something now, I would politely suggest that those on these threads do find them useful. They were specifically set up for those of use who like dissecting and discussing statistics, including specific insights at community level since the dashboard has been enabling that.

If you would like to start a debate about the vaccines, by all mean start a thread on it - you are likely to get more opinions that way anyway, as many people won't see it here.

Oak, I find your points interesting. Do you think you could post links, even if just to Twitter feeds? I would like to see who these experts are. I am very pro vaccination, I am pro going in as hard as possible right now with the new variant (?strain) rampant, but like to understand the decisions made.

@PatriciaHolm you demonstrate my point very well. Only those who adhere to the mainstream view are welcome. I’m not saying I’m correct in my views, it’s as yet unknown, but views are very censored here. Shame.

[quote Oaktree55]@lunar but it’s an echo chamber!!!! Unlikely to come up with helpful insights at a personal or community level.[/quote]
Don’t be so rude!
Nobody here is claiming all the knowledge about every aspect of covid but these threads have been hugely informative about the data side of things.

@tootyfruitypickle

Is the positivity rate staying stable though?

Some of this is behavioural surely? Eg I had a test for a cold (Zoe request) as I was planning to see my parents, but was sure it wasn’t covid so may not have bothered otherwise. So lots more people testing in run up to Xmas = much more positives but actual rate isn’t much higher? I’m not sure where to find the info sorry I know it’s been posted somewhere on here before .

Looking at tests vs cases over the past 10 days or so, (with the big caveat that data is incomplete, plus we can't match tests with specimen dates exactly) - the percentage of tests proving positive has bumbled along between 8.5% and 9.1% over the past 11 days, with a high point actually on 19th/20th.

This week is, data wise, a funny one I think, given the unusual behaviour patterns over Christmas plus the impact of the school holidays. Any impact of the Christmas mixing won't have been felt yet either.

@Yummyoldbag

mobile.twitter.com/HelenBranswell/status/1343945261819813888

There’s plenty under Oxford. Obviously always search for credentials of poster.

How are you being censored? None of us are deleting your posts.

If you want to discuss vaccinations then no one is stopping you, but suggesting you may want to start a separate vaccine discussion thread is not "censorship"

Sorry, I was distracted by a message flashing up that a friend’s father has just died. He was 91 and she was able to see him.

Anyway, MRex’s points about vaccine fear (there are many lurkers) are important. Hence evaluation of sources re discussions is so very very vital. Just a list of links would be really helpful.

@Oaktree55

I'd say at some level this thread is about pure data and that brings with it a level of comfort. You might call it echo chamber, I'd phrase it more like un-emotional musings mostly. Which I think many of us need at one point or another.

On the other hand if no one else is, I'm always up for debate! :)
I like being out of my comfort zone and challenged to think things through from a diff perspective. And I'm totally find with admitting that I was wrong at any point.

Keep posting/questioning, some will reply, some won't.

[quote Oaktree55]@PatriciaHolm you demonstrate my point very well. Only those who adhere to the mainstream view are welcome. I’m not saying I’m correct in my views, it’s as yet unknown, but views are very censored here. Shame.[/quote]
I'm actively saying go start a thread to get more views! No-one is censoring you, just asking politely that if you want a wide ranging discussion, there are better places than this thread. I'm sure lots of people will engage if you post your own discussion thread.

@TheCountessofFitzdotterel to the contrary I’m not rude merely honest. Do your own reading (off Mumsnet) where posters are accountable.

@PatriciaHolm why? Because people on a data thread don’t want the truth?

"the percentage of tests proving positive has bumbled along between 8.5% and 9.1% over the past 11 days, with a high point actually on 19th/20th."

Thanks Patricia - really useful! I think it would be good for that info to be included (with all appropriate disclaimers about lags etc) along with the headline figures - it is interesting that broadcast news doesn't focus on the positivity rate which for me at least seems more informative than total case numbers. (or do they? have to admit I don't watch it very often!)

Oak, do you have any concrete information re efficacy? There are more questions than answers on that link. Do you follow scholars from outside of Oxford bubble that comment without data, or have access to more data than is in the public domain?

What counties do we think will change Tier tomorrow?

I am currently tier 2 but infections rates have increased quite substantially (interestingly on heat map not in children).

I would suspect we should definitely move to tier 3 although I would prefer tier 4.

Do you guys have any thoughts on the changes tomorrow?

@PatriciaHolm I’m only interested in data and I’m v pro vaccine hence hoping people here would be similarly minded. I think I have a very fair scientific point to my view.

I come here because I find the breakdown of the numbers calming. I have huge anxiety at times and don't always want to read the debate/discussion threads. This is literally the only thread that is for data.

@Aixenprovence

"the percentage of tests proving positive has bumbled along between 8.5% and 9.1% over the past 11 days, with a high point actually on 19th/20th."

Thanks Patricia - really useful! I think it would be good for that info to be included (with all appropriate disclaimers about lags etc) along with the headline figures - it is interesting that broadcast news doesn't focus on the positivity rate which for me at least seems more informative than total case numbers. (or do they? have to admit I don't watch it very often!)

They do sometimes, but it's not a number that, for example, is tracked on the Gov dashboard. I think it's been requested, but I suspect they are working through a backlog of required data! It's also quite a faff to get exactly, as you would need to be able to match the number of tests actually conducted on a given day to the number of positives from specimen dates that day, which is not quite what the dashboard gives.

Hence there being a lot of caveats to my conclusions, and using of 7 day averages!