Daily stats, numbers, data thread 28 Dec

[PatriciaHolm]

UK govt pressers Slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots imperialcollegelondon.github.io/covid19local/#table
School statistics Attendance explore-education-[statistics.service.gov.uk/find-statistics/attendance-in-education-and-early-years-settings-during-the-coronavirus-covid-19-outbreak]]
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHs England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSAO Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
CovidMessenger live update by council district in England www.covidmessenger.com/
Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, tests, ONS deaths [[public.tableau.com/profile/public.health.wales.health.protection#!/vizhome/RapidCOVID-19virology-Public/Headlinesummary
NI Dashboard app.powerbi.com/view?r=eyJrIjoiZGYxNjYzNmUtOTlmZS00ODAxLWE1YTEtMjA0NjZhMzlmN2JmIiwidCI6IjljOWEzMGRlLWQ4ZDctNGFhNC05NjAwLTRiZTc2MjVmZjZjNSIsImMiOjh9]]
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe Uk data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK read https_www.ecdc.europa.eu/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.ecdc.europa.eu%2Fen%2Fcases-2019-ncov-eueea
Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=gbr&areas=fra&areas=esp&areas=ita&areas=deu&areas=swe&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&byDate=1&cumulative=1&logScale=1&per100K=1&values=deaths
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/3869571-Studies-corner?msgid=99913434

We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these

I think it is infecting younger children more AND more infectious for older age groups.

Absolutely agree.

Re talking about vaccines, there is an argument for discussing them and the positive aspects of how they work, if people have questions.

An atmosphere in which questions can't be raised for fear of "spreading anxiety" isn't very healthy, and could cause more anxiety in itself.

I guess if people on this thread don't want to discuss vaccines in a scientific way, here it would be possible to start another thread, though.

Though a few places I looked at for the heat maps just in December had clear very high rates in 10-14 year olds that no one else had. The other age groups have since started to go purple.

My interpretation is that 10-14s were all in very close daily contact. Then it's spread to homes and it looks like it's that particular variant.

It's happened in Gateshead, slightly in Durham for example; weirdly not happened in Newcastle. But compare over all rates and Newcastle hasn't shot up as sharply as Gateshead and Durham etc.

Short of mass testing for all, how can we get a positivity rate less than 3%?

By actually stopping the spread maybe?

I agree that in general these kind of questioning is detrimental re:vaccines. But here it is a self-selected few who discuss it from a more data/science perspective. So I think it's good.
Having it in the daily fail would be terrible

Images of Gateshead

www.wired.com/story/test-positivity-is-a-bad-way-to-measure-covids-spread/

This is interesting re. positivity rate monitoring; it suggests that the idea of trying to keep it to 3-5% was really just a reaction to having little other data to go on, and as a measure now isn't very helpful, as it is clearly hugely skewed by different approaches to testing and can differ even through a local area.

For example, I think the postivity rates for the lorry drivers heading back over the channel has been less than 1%...

In terms of vaccine roll-out, I’ve been sent an update email for my London borough saying that since Tuesday 15 December they have vaccinated over 2000 residents and workers (1% of the population). They plan to open another centre next week (making two community vaccination centres, but excluding the local hospitals which are nearby but out-of-borough). I don’t know if this is replicated across the country, but thought the data-minded people on this thread might find this data point interesting.

@NeurotreeWenceslas - ah, I hadn't realised we could zoom until you did that. It's helpful, here's a view of Richmond upon Thames so expected to be the new variant; it seems to just zoom into every age group almost at once.

I had a text from our surgery today which sounds like a good step forward:

Dear Patient: Many clinicians and staff from Xxx Surgery will be involved in COVID-19 vaccinations at Care Homes this week. This will adversely affect our normal services. Please use your discretion when contacting the surgery.

Just seen a report in the Guardian saying that the new strain has been in Germany since November.

GuardianLink

NHS England have announced 356 deaths today, and just a heads up that either today or tomorrow (more likely) we are likely to get a big chunk of PHE deaths - bigger than normal, because of the lack of reporting over the last 4 days. It could be a very big number, but should be looked at with caution, as it will relate to multiple days.

@NeurotreeWenceslas - here it is hitting Swale a month earlier and then just hitting Eastbourne last week. Each case if we ignore the noise of bits of other infections, the main set of infections seems to be going in hard and fast.

Every area is different. Basildon is the other one to look at.

It obviously makes a difference what tier the area was in post lockdown #2.

Basildon zoomed in (bloody hard on a phone.)

Just managed to log in - still have broadband issues from Storm Bella - total headache. Am I right in thinking there has been no govt data release yet today? Is there a press conf later? I know that sometimes delays it - although I didnt think there is press conf today....

Ah yes, Basildon was definitely hitting 10-14 first, yes. Not leaving that age group either.
It's disappointing to see 90+ infection clusters in each of these areas at different times too; those must be care home / hospital infections surely?

Asked this question this morning but at a ridiculously early hour so sorry for repeating the question! - is there a quick way of comparing the recent increase in positive results with the equivalent increase in testing numbers?

Most up to date dashboard shows that the increase in positive results was around 25% over 7 days yesterday, but the figure for the testing numbers increase is for a 7 day period ending 4 days earlier, so you can't tell what the 'real' increase is, iyswim (which you will, as you're the data people!)

@littleowl1

Just managed to log in - still have broadband issues from Storm Bella - total headache. Am I right in thinking there has been no govt data release yet today? Is there a press conf later? I know that sometimes delays it - although I didnt think there is press conf today....

I'm still waiting and refreshing the page.

@Aixenprovence

Asked this question this morning but at a ridiculously early hour so sorry for repeating the question! - is there a quick way of comparing the recent increase in positive results with the equivalent increase in testing numbers? Most up to date dashboard shows that the increase in positive results was around 25% over 7 days yesterday, but the figure for the testing numbers increase is for a 7 day period ending 4 days earlier, so you can't tell what the 'real' increase is, iyswim (which you will, as you're the data people!)

Until we get more up to date testing data, no not really!

Testing data isn't being updated on non-working days, hence we are somewhat behind, but hopefully there will be an update today.

Ouch! Over 50k today.

53,135 cases
414 deaths

Ouch

Hahaha Barbie! Cross-posted

Has the hospital datat updated? Still same when I try.

Thanks Patricia! - do you know if you can go back and get the increase in positive cases from the dashboard for previous days? So eg, retrieve the increase in positive results for the 7 days to 23 Dec, to compare against the currently shown 25.6% increase in total tests done to 23 Dec? (As you can tell I haven't really delved into the dashboard functionality!)
It does seem like the critical other side of the equation - the increase in positive results has to be set against the number for the increase in total tests to derive meaning from it? (I appreciate it's not the only thing people are looking at, obviously)