Daily stats, numbers, data thread 28 Dec

[PatriciaHolm]

UK govt pressers Slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots imperialcollegelondon.github.io/covid19local/#table
School statistics Attendance explore-education-[statistics.service.gov.uk/find-statistics/attendance-in-education-and-early-years-settings-during-the-coronavirus-covid-19-outbreak]]
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHs England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSAO Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
CovidMessenger live update by council district in England www.covidmessenger.com/
Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, tests, ONS deaths [[public.tableau.com/profile/public.health.wales.health.protection#!/vizhome/RapidCOVID-19virology-Public/Headlinesummary
NI Dashboard app.powerbi.com/view?r=eyJrIjoiZGYxNjYzNmUtOTlmZS00ODAxLWE1YTEtMjA0NjZhMzlmN2JmIiwidCI6IjljOWEzMGRlLWQ4ZDctNGFhNC05NjAwLTRiZTc2MjVmZjZjNSIsImMiOjh9]]
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe Uk data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK read https_www.ecdc.europa.eu/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.ecdc.europa.eu%2Fen%2Fcases-2019-ncov-eueea
Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=gbr&areas=fra&areas=esp&areas=ita&areas=deu&areas=swe&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&byDate=1&cumulative=1&logScale=1&per100K=1&values=deaths
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/3869571-Studies-corner?msgid=99913434

We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these

FGS - I’m very partial to an excel graph too! Isn’t it a requisite for being on these threads The chief data bloke for the dashboard is quite active on Twitter, you could always ask him if there’s a way of getting the raw data if no one on here knows?

@RugsEverywhere

I'm sick of seeing that the new strain 'raises R by 0.7' ( bbc I'm looking at you). New strain increases R by 70% so if R is around 1 then yes it does increase it by 0.7, but otherwise NO IT DOESN'T. I hate crappy science journalism.

It usually says it is 70% more transmissible, which I took to be an increase in the secondary attack rate, which is only one of the components of R.

try putting in postcode. It gives you a diff set of results

The R rate puzzles me, the link at the top of the thread says it was 1.1 to 1.3 on 23rd December but surely it was higher than that or why is there such growth in cases?

I've been thinking about this 12 week vaccination schedule.

They say natural re-infection is possible after 12 weeks. When will we know whether people are catching it for a third time?
I'm talking properly confirmed PCR tested and sequenced not just "well I think"
It can't be that far away surely.
If this doesn't happen often then 12 weeks is ok from that point of view.

I guess I'm thinking about chicken pox as an example. A few people have it twice but I don't know anyone having it 3 times

Breaking news of u turn on primary closures in London boroughs not on the list.

I saw that on another thread. Although I’m over the u turn phrase. We all know this is fast changing yes?!

Not you Piggy just the media

I don't think this is in response to a changing picture in this case, though. It's after a challenge to already existing data so, in this case, I do think it is a u turn. About to be one on mask wearing too, apparently.

In general, an overused phrase though.

@Piggywaspushed

Breaking news of u turn on primary closures in London boroughs not on the list.

I can't see this on the news sites @Piggywaspushed, where is it mentioned?

Schools week, Guardian, Twitter via Pippa Crear. Sadiq Khan.

schoolsweek.co.uk/all-london-primaries-will-now-remain-closed-after-another-chaotic-government-u-turn/

Bucks will be next and Herts, I suspect... possibly all Tier 4.

What a mess.

@Piggywaspushed thank you.

@Piggywaspushed

I don't think this is in response to a changing picture in this case, though. It's after a challenge to already existing data so, in this case, I do think it is a u turn. About to be one on mask wearing too, apparently.

In general, an overused phrase though.

This new variant is a major consideration and its fast. I do think people are moving incredibly quickly on this. It probably involves collation review and repeat. I’m willing to bet this is as agile as pretty much anything else. Given the amount of people involved.

At some point the media should stop swine swiping and inform but it’s probably too much to ask!

Swiping no swines

Page 11 of this European CDC report on new variant discusses R, someone more numerate scientific than me will understand it:

www.ecdc.europa.eu/sites/default/files/documents/COVID-19-risk-related-to-spread-of-new-SARS-CoV-2-variants-EU-EEA.pdf

The blue lines on this slide will be v out of date now. They can't take chances.

That's good news on the schools, necessary. I also don't think "u-turn" is a helpful phrase if it risks ministers being deterred from changing their minds when new evidence or even persuasive arguments come along. We need them to try to do the right thing, regardless of how it "looks" or knowing they will be criticised for it.

On new variant. Just read this thread and the imperial paper which has just come out.

Commentary on Twitter from Deepti Gurdasani, who I’d never heard of before but recommended by Helen Branswell who is an excellent science journalist.

mobile.twitter.com/dgurdasani1/status/1344774930748071936

www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/mrc-gida/2020-12-31-COVID19-Report-42-Preprint-VOC.pdf

FGS the map did used to have exportable msoa data as i have a download, but i think they stopped doing it quite some time ago...

I’m also not a fan of “u-turn” I just want them to do the right thing rather than play politics or power plays

On schools, I’m grateful for a U-turn if it means the government are reacting to changing circumstances.

Better late than never.

Personally, reading the terrifying commentary from well regarded scientists today, I think they all need to close.

@MRex

That's good news on the schools, necessary. I also don't think "u-turn" is a helpful phrase if it risks ministers being deterred from changing their minds when new evidence or even persuasive arguments come along. We need them to try to do the right thing, regardless of how it "looks" or knowing they will be criticised for it.

It's honestly pathetic that the can't just do the right thing in the first place. It's actually terrifying. 🥴

What baffles me is what do they expect to happen by the 18th? I think it's irrational to think any huge change by then. Why not come clean and say all of January at least? and even that is a very optimistic scenario....

It's honestly pathetic that the can't just do the right thing in the first place. It's actually terrifying. 🥴

Data that shows harm will be incredibly strong - up to a point. It’s two opposing pressures. The right thing is muddier than represented on here.

@MarshaBradyo

It's honestly pathetic that the can't just do the right thing in the first place. It's actually terrifying. 🥴

Data that shows harm will be incredibly strong - up to a point. It’s two opposing pressures. The right thing is muddier than represented on here.

Possibly but still don't think it would make a difference to some of them.