Daily stats, numbers, data thread 28 Dec

[PatriciaHolm]

UK govt pressers Slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots imperialcollegelondon.github.io/covid19local/#table
School statistics Attendance explore-education-[statistics.service.gov.uk/find-statistics/attendance-in-education-and-early-years-settings-during-the-coronavirus-covid-19-outbreak]]
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHs England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSAO Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
CovidMessenger live update by council district in England www.covidmessenger.com/
Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, tests, ONS deaths [[public.tableau.com/profile/public.health.wales.health.protection#!/vizhome/RapidCOVID-19virology-Public/Headlinesummary
NI Dashboard app.powerbi.com/view?r=eyJrIjoiZGYxNjYzNmUtOTlmZS00ODAxLWE1YTEtMjA0NjZhMzlmN2JmIiwidCI6IjljOWEzMGRlLWQ4ZDctNGFhNC05NjAwLTRiZTc2MjVmZjZjNSIsImMiOjh9]]
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe Uk data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK read https_www.ecdc.europa.eu/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.ecdc.europa.eu%2Fen%2Fcases-2019-ncov-eueea
Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=gbr&areas=fra&areas=esp&areas=ita&areas=deu&areas=swe&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&byDate=1&cumulative=1&logScale=1&per100K=1&values=deaths
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/3869571-Studies-corner?msgid=99913434

We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these

I suppose soon we'll see a new colour scheme on the map. Red maybe?

London area anecdata increasing of people who believe they caught it at the supermarket or shopping centre just before Christmas; shopping centres were closed from 19th I think, so higher cases 29th may be them infecting their families. I think the coming days will look worse and can only hope that the worst is done already with them all getting tests.

I certainly know of people in SW London who must have caught it either in supermarkets or on the bus going into the supermarket for food.

Could it be partly due to people putting off testing over Christmas??

@MRex
I think UK ppl are suffering from some strange denial syndrome when it comes to anything school related. It has to be the shopping market where they spend 30 mins in huge areas and well ventilated space. Must be.....
(ok, I'm basing the 30 mins on my pattern. That's the long shopping. was before covid as well)

[quote ChateauMargaux]@Cornettoninja Tagging you in this thread[/quote]
You called?

@TheSunIsStillShining - I have stated multiple times now that the new variant appears to affect children more, but oddly enough, none of these are people with school age children and they all work from home. Unless they're lying, they haven't been anywhere else, and I have no reason to think they would lie.

From BBC report on the new strain increasing R:

Early data suggested that the virus was spreading more quickly among the under-20s, particularly among secondary school age children, but the latest results indicate that it is more infectious in all age groups.

Prof Axel Gandy, part of the research team, suggested that it may have appeared to spread more easily among school children simply because the early data was collected during the November lockdown, when adults' movements were restricted but schools remained open.

The table on www.covidmessenger.com with the govt. latest daily data release.

Unsurprisingly, cases and cases per 100k "dropped" (artificially) over 24th/25th/26th. That period is still being captured in the latest 7 day period.

So for the majority of councils, we would expect the 7 day cases (and per 100K) to step up once these 3 days are no longer being captured in the 7 day figures.

It still stuns me how quickly councils in the top 20 are being blown out off their top-20 positions, not because their situation is necessarily improving, but because cases in other councils are increasing so rapidly they are being overtaken.

...something we haven't seen occur with such speed before and presumably owing to this new variant's ease-of-transmission characteristics.

[quote MRex]@TheSunIsStillShining - I have stated multiple times now that the new variant appears to affect children more, but oddly enough, none of these are people with school age children and they all work from home. Unless they're lying, they haven't been anywhere else, and I have no reason to think they would lie.[/quote]
this wasn't actually based on anything specific, more like a generalized observation. Sorry to be misleading.

This is phenomenally depressing, but bears out what my sense of cases nearby is. I’m in Lancashire but work in Merseyside and have heard of more cases in the past few days than I have since we had our nightmare time earlier in October. I know the rates aren’t as bad as London, but the steepness of the curve and the fact that it’s only just tier 3. And with schools going back it’s like standing on the beach watching the tsunami coming in

A question - is it possible this new variant has a longer incubation period? It wouldn’t have to be dramatic but particularly since isolation was reduced to ten days it might make a big difference with the kinds of numbers we’re seeing now.

Or conversely an earlier one making our current testing times insufficient to notify contacts. If it finds it easier to infect then it makes sense to me that it could be transmitted earlier than the 48 hours our T&T are concentrating on.

I am coming to the convo a bit late and havent had a chance to go right back through all the posts. But @MarshaBradyo mentioning dips in data/charts.

When we look by specimen date over the last fortnight (this is the sum of all positive cases in all councils in England for each date)

18-Dec 31481
19-Dec 21497
20-Dec 28752
21-Dec 42095
22-Dec 40367
23-Dec 37224
24-Dec 28294
25-Dec 12553
26-Dec 36241
27-Dec 41378

You can see a really notable dip starting on 23rd until 26th. It's a much more significant drop than we would usually see over a weekend for example.

This drop will skew the 7-day data considerably and the week over week comparisons.

Sorry, that formatting is dreadful. Here it is laid out more clearly:

18-Dec: 31,481
19-Dec: 21,497
20-Dec: 28,752
21-Dec: 42,095
22-Dec: 40,367
23-Dec: 37,224
24-Dec: 28,294
25-Dec: 12,553
26-Dec: 36,241
27-Dec: 41,378

I’m going through data on Sun’s link but unless I’ve missed it I’m not able to get a sense of change in child admissions.

Unfortunately it’s early December too

It’s very low for children even in new variant areas but without change or more up to date hard to discern

@littleowl1 that's really interesting thank you. It's a shame that at such a critical time it's not possible to reliably interpret data due to time lags caused by the festive period.

Don't get me wrong, I absolutely don't begrudge people a few days off.

@MarshaBradyo anecdotal information from children and adolescent wards in Leicester and Nottingham suggest no increase in admissions.

In fact other wards have taken staff from these wards as they are so desperate for help.

I agree @Chaotic45 - it does feel like a critical time to have a data "gap".

Although I suspect its not only about data / lab resourcing issues over the festive period.

I suspect, its also owing to human behaviour. People with mild symptoms were probably less likely to get tested over 24/25/26 in the hope it was a false alarm and they might shake it off.

Regardless, it will mean that data can't be entirely taken at face value at the moment - you need to kinda dig into it a bit or make a mental adjustment to it.

I'm really keen to understand the transmission amongst school aged children so greatly welcome the discussion above. This thread has honestly been a godsend to me in 2020.

And happy new year to everyone

And thank you all for the measured debate and data analysis and discussion through 2020!

@MarshaBradyo there was an interview with a Paeds matron about this earlier on 5live, her perspective wasn’t very positive unfortunately (I realise this is anecdata sorry) twitter.com/bbc5live/status/1345006866829463552?s=21

Does anyone know whether case data is available at MSOA level? I.e. the number of cases that have been reported historically for a particular MSOA. On the coronavirus.data.gov.uk site I can see historic data for my city at LTLA level, but only daily figures for my MSOA. I want to see the long term figures for my small area - I seem to be in a pocket of unusually high cases within the city (eek) and am interested in the trend...

(Apologies if this has been answered already, I've tried to read back but the threads are incredibly long!)

Have you tried using the slider on the map? You can go back in time using that at the MSOA level

[quote TheDinosaurTrain]@MarshaBradyo there was an interview with a Paeds matron about this earlier on 5live, her perspective wasn’t very positive unfortunately (I realise this is anecdata sorry) twitter.com/bbc5live/status/1345006866829463552?s=21[/quote]
Thanks for this, a link to this prompted me to look at age related hospitalisation earlier

I don’t think the data is quite there yet to back up or not unfortunately

@TheDinosaurTrain

Have you tried using the slider on the map? You can go back in time using that at the MSOA level

Thanks but yes I've seen that you can do that. I was hoping for a graph of the number of cases (like you can get for the larger areas and regions) or, if not, a data set that I can graph myself in excel. The slider gives an idea of the progression but I do love a graph

@MRex interesting, would this be Aitumn 2021 or do you mean 2022?

I would expect child vaccines by next autumn.

I'm sick of seeing that the new strain 'raises R by 0.7' ( bbc I'm looking at you). New strain increases R by 70% so if R is around 1 then yes it does increase it by 0.7, but otherwise NO IT DOESN'T. I hate crappy science journalism.