Daily stats, numbers, data thread 28 Dec

[PatriciaHolm]

UK govt pressers Slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots imperialcollegelondon.github.io/covid19local/#table
School statistics Attendance explore-education-[statistics.service.gov.uk/find-statistics/attendance-in-education-and-early-years-settings-during-the-coronavirus-covid-19-outbreak]]
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHs England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSAO Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
CovidMessenger live update by council district in England www.covidmessenger.com/
Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, tests, ONS deaths [[public.tableau.com/profile/public.health.wales.health.protection#!/vizhome/RapidCOVID-19virology-Public/Headlinesummary
NI Dashboard app.powerbi.com/view?r=eyJrIjoiZGYxNjYzNmUtOTlmZS00ODAxLWE1YTEtMjA0NjZhMzlmN2JmIiwidCI6IjljOWEzMGRlLWQ4ZDctNGFhNC05NjAwLTRiZTc2MjVmZjZjNSIsImMiOjh9]]
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe Uk data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK read https_www.ecdc.europa.eu/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.ecdc.europa.eu%2Fen%2Fcases-2019-ncov-eueea
Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=gbr&areas=fra&areas=esp&areas=ita&areas=deu&areas=swe&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&byDate=1&cumulative=1&logScale=1&per100K=1&values=deaths
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/3869571-Studies-corner?msgid=99913434

We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these

So, still no massive spike (although this could change over the next few days)

As Truelymadlydeeplysomeonesmum says, Waltham Forest has been very pro-active.

According to a colleague 3 walk-ins for LFTs and 6 PCR sites - some have both tests available on the same site so if you get a positive LFT you can get the PCR done very quickly. Daily email reminders.

Neighbouring Redbridge, vying with Havering for worst borough since November, has 1 LFT (they advise you to book rather than walk in) site and 3 PCR sites. Worth noting also Waltham Forest has smaller population than Redbridge.

Just shows what can be done with additional testing.

I’m hoping someone on this thread can help me with some data to confirm or disprove my thoughts on the speed at which vaccinations will ease the burden on the NHS.

As we all know the bulk of deaths falls on the elderly and very elderly, so vaccinating the over eighties and care home residents should slash the death toll very quickly.

But as I understand it the age of people in hospitals skews significantly younger, partly (mostly?) because patients, families, and doctors often take the view that hospital admission is not in the best interests of very old and/or sick people with severe Covid.

I would therefore draw the conclusion that if the object of lockdowns is to protect the NHS, they’ll have to continue a few more months than they would if the object were to prevent deaths because you’ll need to vaccinate at least down to the over 65s, and probably further, before you can see a big impact.

Has anyone seen any useful graphs comparing the age distribution of deaths via hospitalisation or will I have to dig out Excel and do it myself?

@QueenStromba I have been following the Essex figures closely and they are also interesting. The “top of the leader board” areas have levelled out or are decreasing but other areas are still increasing. A big jump for the week ending 27 December in the area that I live in despite the schools being closed for a week.

@LearnedResponse

I’m hoping someone on this thread can help me with some data to confirm or disprove my thoughts on the speed at which vaccinations will ease the burden on the NHS.

As we all know the bulk of deaths falls on the elderly and very elderly, so vaccinating the over eighties and care home residents should slash the death toll very quickly.

But as I understand it the age of people in hospitals skews significantly younger, partly (mostly?) because patients, families, and doctors often take the view that hospital admission is not in the best interests of very old and/or sick people with severe Covid.

I would therefore draw the conclusion that if the object of lockdowns is to protect the NHS, they’ll have to continue a few more months than they would if the object were to prevent deaths because you’ll need to vaccinate at least down to the over 65s, and probably further, before you can see a big impact.

Has anyone seen any useful graphs comparing the age distribution of deaths via hospitalisation or will I have to dig out Excel and do it myself?

It will depend a lot on how well the vaccine blocks transmission. My feeling is that we're going to need to vaccinate everyone willing over 30 and that still might not be enough in places like London if uptake is low in the BAME community. And then there's the question of whether it's wise to just let it run rampant in the young and give it a chance to mutate to escape the immune response from previous infection and vaccination.

@QueenStromba
Since kids are not going to be vaccined it'll never be close even....

Interesting. From today's data, most of Kent is now falling slightly along with the original worst London boroughs (I think - Havering and Waltham Forest) and the worst two East Sussex boroughs. I guess adjusting for Christmas and Boxing Day it's probably a slight rise but there's definitely something going on there. I assume it's behavioural since the rest of London went into tier 4 at the same time and haven't seen such a large effect.

We are in this neck of the woods. We have gone from very low to catostrophic really quickly. I think we have a "Liverpool effect" and yes lots of schools closed in that last week.

@TheSunIsStillShining - Oxford AstraZeneca is doing a trial, possibly others too. I would expect child vaccines by next autumn. We all, or just vulnerable, might all need a booster for mutations then or later, but it becomes more like flu them and working vaccines will eventually bring us through this.

Twitter thread re a dr having their second pfizer dose rescheduled: twitter.com/farrell_katrina/status/1344610377565405184?
"Just received this email cancelling my 2nd dose of the Pfizer vaccine. On the basis of UK government guidance yesterday. This means that the vaccine is not being delivered as licensed. I DID NOT consent to receive an off-label drug with NO evidence of benefit with a single dose.

This means that tens of thousands of Scottish & UK health & social care workers have rolled their sleeve up for a vaccine unlicensed at this dose schedule. For which they did not consent. This is a scandal."

This really does seem odd that they're allowed to do this?

On another note, I'm starting to get quite anxious about schools going back as I am reading more about transmission in children (such as this
twitter.com/dgurdasani1/status/1344774555718590464

). Despite having always been more on the cautious side I wasn't too worried re schools as they were closed, then opened when cases were low in our area. However I'm starting to second-guess my own decisions now and hate that I'm having to work out what to do. I'll keep my toddler off pre-school for at least a week or two, I think.

Quarnantino its hard isn't it. I am still planning to send my 2 but we are Tier 3 and their school not affected so far. I would have been OK if they closed though, which is a change for me. My kids are both primary age but I have been preparing them that schools may close/ reopen in the future. Its weird - cases are so bad in some places (rising fast here) & we have all the extra curricular activities starting again next week

Yes that is concerning Quarnatino.

I've been keeping a close eye on local LEAs. The picture is mixed and apparently we had lower levels of the new variant. Our numbers had gone right down by early December in the whole region, tier 3 helped.

However, (obviously delayed data) there's been sudden sharp spikes in 2 nearby LEAs. And the heat maps show dark purple in those age groups, that's not in the other ages. Not my own LEAs yet though. So it does make me query what's happening there.

I've also just found out that the whole region is doing targeted LF community testing too so that will also be interesting to watch.

(Personally I feel fairly sick going back into the classroom next week, and sending the kids to preschool and school though rates are thankfully much lower than post half term, at the moment.)

Is there anywhere to find out the proportion of new variant covid in an area?

There's been a detailed ONS paper I think, about a week ago.

@JellyBabiesSaveLives

Is there anywhere to find out the proportion of new variant covid in an area?

www.gov.uk/government/publications/investigation-of-novel-sars-cov-2-variant-variant-of-concern-20201201

Thank you

@Cornettoninja Tagging you in this thread

Happy new year to everyone here and thanks as always for the data.

I hope we won’t need to be on this thread in a year’s time.

@JellyBabiesSaveLives there’s a good Twitter thread on it from yesterday

twitter.com/dgurdasani1/status/1344774555718590464?s=21

53285 and 613

The specimen date case number for the 29th is over 60K!

Does anyone have hospitalisation by age range data by region?

I’m not sure if it’s available but just wondering if anything has changed on age data

@MarshaBradyo
www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/

Thanks Sun

@Barbie222

The specimen date case number for the 29th is over 60K!

I saw that. Is it a bit soon for Christmas mixing or about right?

We had a dip on our local chart then up again. I did wonder if Christmas mixing was kicking in. Although tier 4 and were not meant to except support.