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Daily stats, numbers, data thread 28 Dec

999 replies

PatriciaHolm · 28/12/2020 11:02

UK govt pressers Slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots imperialcollegelondon.github.io/covid19local/#table
School statistics Attendance explore-education-[statistics.service.gov.uk/find-statistics/attendance-in-education-and-early-years-settings-during-the-coronavirus-covid-19-outbreak]]
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHs England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSAO Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
CovidMessenger live update by council district in England www.covidmessenger.com/
Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, tests, ONS deaths [[public.tableau.com/profile/public.health.wales.health.protection#!/vizhome/RapidCOVID-19virology-Public/Headlinesummary
NI Dashboard app.powerbi.com/view?r=eyJrIjoiZGYxNjYzNmUtOTlmZS00ODAxLWE1YTEtMjA0NjZhMzlmN2JmIiwidCI6IjljOWEzMGRlLWQ4ZDctNGFhNC05NjAwLTRiZTc2MjVmZjZjNSIsImMiOjh9]]
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe Uk data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK read https_www.ecdc.europa.eu/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.ecdc.europa.eu%2Fen%2Fcases-2019-ncov-eueea
Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=gbr&areas=fra&areas=esp&areas=ita&areas=deu&areas=swe&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&byDate=1&cumulative=1&logScale=1&per100K=1&values=deaths
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/3869571-Studies-corner?msgid=99913434

We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these

OP posts:
Thread gallery
27
Chaotic45 · 31/12/2020 16:26

Slightly off topic but I know that many posters on this thread are wise and level headed and this feels important.

I'm convinced that there are graphics flying about on the BBC and elsewhere that have incorrectly interpreted the guidelines about isolating for members of a household living with a positive test.

Specifically what someone should do if, for example , they have not tested positive, and do it have symptoms, but are living with two people who have tested positive but are on different infection timelines.

I believe that the correct guidance is that under this circumstance a non-positive person who has not been positive during the incident should isolate for ten days beginning when the most recent case tested positive (or was symptomatic).

Track and trace also told me this more than once. Plus it makes good sense- otherwise a non infected person is leaving their house whilst living with an infectious person who is still isolating.

I've cut and Pasted the guidance from gov.uk below and I think it's quite confusing as unless you read it carefully it can be misconstrued. I know from two mumsnet threads that people are following this incorrect guidance and working whilst living with a positive Covid person having not had Covid themselves.

Graphics from the BBC and other places suggest something incorrect and dangerous.

I've got a bee in my bonnet as this could be causing people to leave home and go to work incorrectly. Is there anything I can do to bring this to the right people's attention? I hope I'm making sense!

Stay at home and self-isolate. Do not go to work, school, or public areas and do not use public transport or taxis.
Your isolation period includes the day the first person in your household’s symptoms started (or the day their test was taken if they did not have symptoms, whether this was an LFD or PCR test), and the next 10 full days. This means that if, for example, your 10 day isolation period starts on the 15th of the month, your isolation period ends at 23:59 hrs on the 25th and you can return to your normal routine.
If you do not have symptoms of COVID-19 yourself, you do not need a test. Only arrange a test if you develop COVID-19 symptoms or if you are asked to do so as part of a wider testing scheme. If for any reason you have a negative test result during your 10 day isolation period, you must continue to self-isolate. Even if you don’t have symptoms, you could still pass the infection on to others. Stay at home for the full 10 days to avoid putting others at risk.
If you develop symptoms while you are isolating, arrange to have a COVID-19 PCR testt_. If your test result is positive, follow the advice for people with COVID-19 to stay at home and start a further full 10 day isolation period. This begins when your symptoms started, regardless of where you are in your original 10 day isolation period. This means that your total isolation period will be longer than 10 days.
If other household members develop symptoms during this period, you do not need to isolate for longer than 10 days.
If you are identified as a contact and asked to self-isolate by NHS Test and Tracee, including by the NHS COVID-19 appp you may be entitled to a payment of £500 from your local authority under the Test and Trace Support Payment schemee_.
Failure to comply with self-isolation may result in a fine, starting from £1,000. Parents or guardians are legally responsible for ensuring that anyone under 18 self-isolates if they test positive for COVID-19 and are contacted by NHS Test and Trace and told to self-isolate.

Castiel07 · 31/12/2020 16:27

55892 and over 950 deaths, in my town our cases have gone up immensely.

meditrina · 31/12/2020 16:33

@Castiel07

55892 and over 950 deaths, in my town our cases have gone up immensely.
What I found odd is that the number admitted to hospital graph hasn't been updated since 22 Dec.

Now I know that complication of figures can be delayed in all sorts of ways when there are several public holidays and Sundays. But thus length of gap is unhelpful.

QueenStromba · 31/12/2020 16:36

I believe that the infographic you are talking about is the correct interpretation of the rules but it's one of those cases where the rules are bonkers.

Witchend · 31/12/2020 16:38

@Chaotic45

Are you referring to the picture where the 2nd family member gets it on about day 10, but the negative family member is released when the first positive gets to day 10?

Because I would agree with you, and that's confused me since I first saw it. Surely if another person gets it, and you have had contact, then it resets the isolation period?

Found it: Why can't child 2 have caught it from dad? Surely they should then isolate until dad has finished too.

Daily stats, numbers, data thread 28 Dec
MRex · 31/12/2020 16:39

@Chaotic45 - raise it with links to DHSC and BBC, they should each follow up to check.

MRex · 31/12/2020 16:40

But I do think the infographic correctly represents the advice "If other household members develop symptoms during this period, you do not need to isolate for longer than 10 days."

QueenStromba · 31/12/2020 16:41

meditrina - it seems to just be Scotland that hasn't reported on admissions, you can look at the data for the other nations, regions and trusts.

littleowl1 · 31/12/2020 16:44

The table of daily cases in councils is updated on www.covidmessenger.com

Daily cases still below what one would expect given the specimen date is Boxing Day.

TheSunIsStillShining · 31/12/2020 16:45

They go up till the 28th in England:

www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/

It is rising quite a bit.

herecomesthsun · 31/12/2020 16:49

From the D of E thread.

I can't see where this came from, but it covers the last couple of weeks, for which there has been little info.

The positivity rates are massive though - I wondered if anyone here can help me make sense of what is going on?

Daily stats, numbers, data thread 28 Dec
Aixenprovence · 31/12/2020 16:56

Is anyone able to do the positivity rate calculation from today's dashboard figures? (I know it's complicated....have to measure the specimen date against the date of test...but haven't yet worked out how to d it!)

Chaotic45 · 31/12/2020 16:57

@Witchend yes that's the one and that's the point that I am trying to make.

I believe the gov.uk guidance is different to the info graphic, but that it's not well written and can be misinterpreted as the meaning of 'you' gets a bit lost.

People know it's nonsensical but they are so used to things seeming to make little sense that they aren't questioning it.

It has the potential to spread infection....

Wakeupin2022 · 31/12/2020 16:58

@Castiel07

55892 and over 950 deaths, in my town our cases have gone up immensely.
I have literally just swore when I checked my city!

I am shocked. The 29th so only Wednesday and may not be complete yet and its the highest its every been by a long way, even when we had a big outbreak in a care home.

Aixenprovence · 31/12/2020 17:00

ah - cross posted with herecomesthesun. Positivity rates still going up?

Firefliess · 31/12/2020 17:02

@herecomesthesun I think the positivity rates are simply following infection rates. The number of people who get tested who don't have Covid isn't changing much (why would it? We don't routinely test Covid contacts, and the numbers who've got symptoms for other reasons (colds/flu/etc) is probably stable) So as cases rise, the positivity rate goes up too.

lonelyplanet · 31/12/2020 17:12

@herecomesthsun

From the D of E thread.

I can't see where this came from, but it covers the last couple of weeks, for which there has been little info.

The positivity rates are massive though - I wondered if anyone here can help me make sense of what is going on?

Its from todays surveillance report p.12 www.gov.uk/government/statistics/national-flu-and-covid-19-surveillance-reports
lonelyplanet · 31/12/2020 17:15

I apologise for the 2 missing apostrophes!

PatriciaHolm · 31/12/2020 17:31

@meditrina hospital admissions are updated for England, if you change the nation option. The UK number overall is not updated as the Scotland one hasn't been.

OP posts:
QueenStromba · 31/12/2020 17:36

Interesting. From today's data, most of Kent is now falling slightly along with the original worst London boroughs (I think - Havering and Waltham Forest) and the worst two East Sussex boroughs. I guess adjusting for Christmas and Boxing Day it's probably a slight rise but there's definitely something going on there. I assume it's behavioural since the rest of London went into tier 4 at the same time and haven't seen such a large effect.

meditrina · 31/12/2020 17:47

Many thanks those signposting other places with stats

I do hope they can get the main dashboard fully up to date soon!

LJC1234 · 31/12/2020 17:49

@littleowl1

The table of daily cases in councils is updated on www.covidmessenger.com

Daily cases still below what one would expect given the specimen date is Boxing Day.

@littleowl1 I just wanted to say a huge thank you! I find your data invaluable.

It looks like a few more green falling are appearing which is great although I know the huge increases in rising are causing huge numbers still

Truelymadlydeeplysomeonesmum · 31/12/2020 17:55

@QueenStromba

Interesting. From today's data, most of Kent is now falling slightly along with the original worst London boroughs (I think - Havering and Waltham Forest) and the worst two East Sussex boroughs. I guess adjusting for Christmas and Boxing Day it's probably a slight rise but there's definitely something going on there. I assume it's behavioural since the rest of London went into tier 4 at the same time and haven't seen such a large effect.
Can't speak for the rest but Waltham forest got very proactive since start of December.

Several mobile walk in test centres for the general public to use. Encouraged to go even if no symptoms or close contacts. Pop along no appointment needed. That is on top of regular test centres that are for people showing symptoms.

Some schools were closed a week or two before end of term.

covetingthepreciousthings · 31/12/2020 18:08

Is the 964 deaths today still expected from the backlog or should it have dropped after yesterday's higher figure?

InterfectoremVulpes · 31/12/2020 18:21

@covetingthepreciousthings

Is the 964 deaths today still expected from the backlog or should it have dropped after yesterday's higher figure?
A screenshot from RP131 showing graph by actual date of death.
Daily stats, numbers, data thread 28 Dec
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