Daily stats, numbers, data thread 28 Dec

[PatriciaHolm]

UK govt pressers Slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots imperialcollegelondon.github.io/covid19local/#table
School statistics Attendance explore-education-[statistics.service.gov.uk/find-statistics/attendance-in-education-and-early-years-settings-during-the-coronavirus-covid-19-outbreak]]
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHs England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSAO Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
CovidMessenger live update by council district in England www.covidmessenger.com/
Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, tests, ONS deaths [[public.tableau.com/profile/public.health.wales.health.protection#!/vizhome/RapidCOVID-19virology-Public/Headlinesummary
NI Dashboard app.powerbi.com/view?r=eyJrIjoiZGYxNjYzNmUtOTlmZS00ODAxLWE1YTEtMjA0NjZhMzlmN2JmIiwidCI6IjljOWEzMGRlLWQ4ZDctNGFhNC05NjAwLTRiZTc2MjVmZjZjNSIsImMiOjh9]]
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe Uk data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK read https_www.ecdc.europa.eu/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.ecdc.europa.eu%2Fen%2Fcases-2019-ncov-eueea
Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=gbr&areas=fra&areas=esp&areas=ita&areas=deu&areas=swe&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&byDate=1&cumulative=1&logScale=1&per100K=1&values=deaths
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/3869571-Studies-corner?msgid=99913434

We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these

I can see why they're doing it - desperate times - but it makes me feel very nervous, they're going to be so reliant on the second doses arriving as scheduled if they're no longer holding them in storage and I can just see some terrible headlines in 9 weeks' time if that goes wrong.

I still find their upping the efficiency percentage of their jab two days after announcing it dodgy. The second American jab announcement they were 5% more efficient than Pfizer. Then suddenly it is oh sorry we made a mistake and ours is this efficient too. A very competitive company me thinks.

I'm afraid after my experience with American medical industry I tend to look at them sideways. There's too much money riding on things for them not to fudge stats-and that's easy enough to do, as we all know here.

@Hardbackwriter

I can see why they're doing it - desperate times - but it makes me feel very nervous, they're going to be so reliant on the second doses arriving as scheduled if they're no longer holding them in storage and I can just see some terrible headlines in 9 weeks' time if that goes wrong.

I'm wondering if they're doing it because they didn't keep back the second doses and haven't had a shipment they were promised. Wasn't there a problem at the factory in Belgium recently?

Some data! 786k vaccinated up to 27 December. 243k in the last week.
Did I read somewhere that it was/would be 1mn by the end of the year?

www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2020/12/COVID-19-total-announced-vaccinations-31-December-2020.pdf

Aix that is England only

Ah - very good point - actually says so in the link! i wonder if the rest of UK also announces figures today - it would make sense. I think the plan is to produce them every Thursday (for England, at least)

I think the US can mess about a bit with specific stats and doing down competitors, but MHRA have seen all their trial findings so I'm quite sure that Pfizer works, which is what matters.
I'm confused about what happened to the 4m doses from Belgium. Did something happen to them that hasn't been fully declared like incorrect storing? Did they go out of date because it took so long between authorisation and opening the French border? Did someone steal them? Did the factory just not make them? Or have they quietly decided to pop the new strain in as well, hence existing supplies being useless?

Ah, the twitter says NI, Scotland and Wales also announce vaccination figures later today.
Re the 4mn pfizer, I think I read that there's a shortage of one of the ingredients - or is it the vials - which means production is less than planned? Though I thought they were still aiming to deliver 3mn to UK by the end of the year - ie today! so we'll know fairly soon....

How on earth are they short of vials? It's not like nobody could have predicted that vaccines might get a bit popular to have created and stored a load in advance. What have Pfizer been doing for the last year as their side of the prep?

The factory in Wrexham is putting the Oxford vaccine into vials, and it says this:
The Wrexham plant is able to produce around 300 million doses of the vaccine each year, and has been producing 150,000 phials a day for months in readiness to roll out the vaccine across the UK.'

All I've ever read about BioNThek preparation has focussed on storage, e.g. they built loads of suitable refrigeration at various airports to be able to ship it to the US

This article talks about Pfizer manufacturing issues , and has some numbers in it about how many doses were/ are projected to be made (and info on all the efforts to solve the problems)
www.dhakatribune.com/health/coronavirus/2020/12/17/us-officials-pfizer-having-manufacturing-issues-with-covid-19-vaccines

They have have been so focused on storage they forgot about vials? Or they counted stock then used them for flu? Or broke some? It seems very odd not to have prepped the bits that clearly could be prepped (and easily sold to another manufacturer if that vaccine failed).

[quote schimmelreiter]This article talks about Pfizer manufacturing issues , and has some numbers in it about how many doses were/ are projected to be made (and info on all the efforts to solve the problems)
www.dhakatribune.com/health/coronavirus/2020/12/17/us-officials-pfizer-having-manufacturing-issues-with-covid-19-vaccines[/quote]
This is making the Oxford vaccine look very attractive

Thanks for that info Elvis

@MRex

How on earth are they short of vials? It's not like nobody could have predicted that vaccines might get a bit popular to have created and stored a load in advance. What have Pfizer been doing for the last year as their side of the prep?

Wasn't that what Matt Hancock's mate stopped running his pub to do? Produce vials in his basement? So much more rewarding, and clearly suited to the same kind of character and personality as a pub landlord.

The PHE surveillance report is out
www.gov.uk/government/statistics/national-flu-and-covid-19-surveillance-reports

Can anyone explain why the graphs on community surveillance pages only go up to week 50? Am I missing something?

PHE graphs. I looked very hard at them to see if there were clues as to decision on schol closures etc but it's hard to unravel:

assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/948529/Weekly_COVID-19_and_Influenza_Surveillance_Graphs_w53.pdf

@MRex

How on earth are they short of vials? It's not like nobody could have predicted that vaccines might get a bit popular to have created and stored a load in advance. What have Pfizer been doing for the last year as their side of the prep?

Certainly education setting has now overtaken the dreaded shopping as the most commonly visited place for those who test positive. No surprise there.

Sorry lonely X post. I wondered that too. A lot of hatched lines and guesses on graphs , therefore!

@Piggyinblankets

Sorry lonely X post. I wondered that too. A lot of hatched lines and guesses on graphs , therefore!

Not even that. They have repeated the same graphs from last week and only included info up to week 50. The report is for week 53.

Aaargh. I just lost a link-filled set of info about vials.

Basically, I think globally they didn't consider actual 2-doses for 8 billion. This article suggests they were thinking 1bn would be enough; that's 2.5bn doses.
www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-schott-exclusive-idUSKBN23J0SN
Then they moved to 2bn, BUT a mix including single dose vials: www.marketplace.org/2020/10/23/coronavirus-vaccine-distribution-storage-vials/.

UK in-sourced manufacture of the vials as well, so hopefully Oxford vaccine won't have as much of an issue (at least initially): www.epmmagazine.com/news/dwk-life-sciences-to-supply-glass-vials-for-uk-vaccine-devel/. (PPE lesson learned by UK helping here?)

Got this from a friend: list of studies. Haven't read them yet, but if someone's interested:

ora.ox.ac.uk/?utf8=%26%2310003%3B&per_page=100&q=covid+vaccine&search_field=all_fields

RE Scotland vaccination figures:

• the first vaccines against COVID-19 were administered on Tuesday 8 December
• in the latest week to 27 December, 33,381 individuals received their first dose of COVID-19 vaccination
• from 8 December to 27 December 2020, 92,188 individuals received their first dose of COVID-19 vaccination
• these figures are sourced from a management information system and reflected the latest data reported up to 8:30 am on 30 December

• the number of individuals vaccinated is included in the weekly PHS COVID-19 statistical report
• there was no weekly PHS COVID-19 Statistical report on 30 December. Therefore, on 30 December we published a figure here for the number of individuals vaccinated by 27 December.

www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/

conkers Scotland are definitely leading the way!

Which is good news for my parents & in laws