Daily stats, numbers, data thread 28 Dec

[PatriciaHolm]

UK govt pressers Slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots imperialcollegelondon.github.io/covid19local/#table
School statistics Attendance explore-education-[statistics.service.gov.uk/find-statistics/attendance-in-education-and-early-years-settings-during-the-coronavirus-covid-19-outbreak]]
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHs England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSAO Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
CovidMessenger live update by council district in England www.covidmessenger.com/
Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, tests, ONS deaths [[public.tableau.com/profile/public.health.wales.health.protection#!/vizhome/RapidCOVID-19virology-Public/Headlinesummary
NI Dashboard app.powerbi.com/view?r=eyJrIjoiZGYxNjYzNmUtOTlmZS00ODAxLWE1YTEtMjA0NjZhMzlmN2JmIiwidCI6IjljOWEzMGRlLWQ4ZDctNGFhNC05NjAwLTRiZTc2MjVmZjZjNSIsImMiOjh9]]
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe Uk data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK read https_www.ecdc.europa.eu/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.ecdc.europa.eu%2Fen%2Fcases-2019-ncov-eueea
Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=gbr&areas=fra&areas=esp&areas=ita&areas=deu&areas=swe&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&byDate=1&cumulative=1&logScale=1&per100K=1&values=deaths
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/3869571-Studies-corner?msgid=99913434

We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these

And neighbouring Bedford has aged 5 -9 at 360 and 10 -19 at nearly 900. MK admittedly is higher.

Can I change the subject for a minute or so?

Does anyone have any idea why Germany's deaths are so high when they were so low during the first wave?

When looking at the heat maps, it's worth noting that the last day's data they use is the 25th. For obvious reasons - the data after that isn't complete- but I suspect the Govt has access to later data, and some of those T4 areas are likely to have worsened in the last few days.

@PatriciaHolm
without in depth analysis it looks like cases/deaths have a very similar ratio now as in spring.

I think you mean @JamesAnderson, Sun!

@jamesanderson

I believe in the spring, Germany weren’t reporting any deaths outside of hospital settings. Perhaps this has changed?

[quote everythingthelighttouches]**@jamesanderson

I believe in the spring, Germany weren’t reporting any deaths outside of hospital settings. Perhaps this has changed?[/quote]
Would make sense. Thanks

At a glance it makes you wonder what's happened

www.google.com/amp/s/amp.theguardian.com/world/2020/dec/30/german-minister-urges-patience-over-vaccine-as-daily-covid-deaths-hit-new-high

It suggests that most deaths are happening in care homes.

Some of it is backlog over the Xmas period too. Will need to do a bit of digging but I guess when it gets in care homes then the deaths will be high no matter how good their healthcare system is.

@JamesAnderson

Can I change the subject for a minute or so?

Does anyone have any idea why Germany's deaths are so high when they were so low during the first wave?

I thought the general consensus at the time was that Germany's death rate in the first wave looked low compared to other European countries because they tested much more than most countries then, and so their case numbers were much closer to true number of infected than, say, the UK when we were only testing hospital patients? If so then I guess the death rates now suggest that they actually do have more cases now than they did in the spring, whereas in many other countries it looks like that but it's an artefact of increased testing.

Germany had a couple of "catch up" days yesterday and today but their 7-day rolling average is still +/-600. Their total population is 83mm so in relative terms they are still doing "better" than most other European countries.

In spring Germany did an admirable job managing to keep COVID out of care homes (in comparison to UK, France or Spain). I am not sure what the situation is now but the death numbers suggest that the virus might be spreading within the older population groups.

www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/publications-data/covid-19-testing

Their positivity rate also seems high! So possibly they are identifying as many cases as say the UK?

Although our explosion of cases does not mean good news for us in the next couple of weeks

@JamesAnderson

I’m worried that what I said before about Germany only recording in hospital deaths is wrong. It has been widely quoted but I can’t find an original source.

There is an article in HMU which says what Hardbackwriter has just said: they were much faster off the blocks with testing in March. They decentralised it, which made them more nimble.

So that means if there is a sustained increase now(is it sustained?), it is real. In that case, my guess would be this is driven by the new strain.

HMU = BMJ !!!!
Bloody autocorrect.

@MRex

Regarding primary schools, I've had a little look into how the list was chosen. The 5-9 age confirmed cases category in all the areas with closed primaries has rolling rate >300. Similar cases in neighbouring areas have 5-9 rolling rate 250 or less; it's actually a huge difference between some boroughs even where the cases are similar. I haven't checked them all, because I'm not on a laptop. If anyone's able to download the cases by age and filter just that category, then it could be interesting to see how many are close to that line because I think a few more areas might tip over it in the next week.

That's really interesting. I did wonder what his plan was when many other T4 areas move into the 'zone'. I guess it's easy now for him: he just adds the offending council to the list discreetly on a Sunday eve without fuss or announcement. We're already on our eleventy billionth iteration of the school guidance, so teachers are all used to it, now the parents need training up!

Germany recorded care home deaths, this was from back in May: www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/publications-data/surveillance-COVID-19-long-term-care-facilities-EU-EEA.
There was a lot of EU focus that care home deaths were in general being drastically underestimated by all countries, which I.think did include Germany but I can't find the article just this one. I recall the Spanish had a particularly crazy way of reducing their care home deaths. Mind you, Russia needed an autopsy to count them as a true covid death, so that steals whatever awards.

Food for thought about our regulatory system.....
www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-eu-astrazeneca/astrazeneca-vaccine-not-ready-for-quick-european-approval-watchdog-official-says-idUSKBN2930XC

"The dose interval for the Pfizer vaccine in Britain was changed from 21 days to “at least 21 days” on Wednesday, and for both vaccines, the second dose was advised to be given up to 12 weeks later."

"Pfizer, sounded more cautious on the prospect of shifting the schedule of the second dose of the vaccine, noting it had not been evaluated on different dosing schedules.*

“There are no data to demonstrate that protection after the first dose is sustained after 21 days,” it said in a statement, ..."

this is gov related, but shows lack of understanding

"The government said it would also not recommend one vaccine over another for different cohorts of the population, even though data on the Oxford/AstraZeneca vaccine’s efficacy in older people is currently limited."
---
I am not being paranoid and I don't have an agenda. I am just trying to highlight the issue that others have picked up on:

"Britain said on Wednesday it would prioritise making sure that more people receive their first dose of a COVID-19 vaccine quickly over giving a second shot to those who have already had one, a change in strategy as the country battles record numbers of new coronavirus cases."

*My comment: this is obviously a politically driven decision imo - as I could not find any legit data to back up why a regulatory body would change the schedule when there is no data behind it. And from this point on I think it is reasonable to question MHRA's motives.

Regarding Germany this article is interesting:
www.newstatesman.com/world/europe/2020/12/why-germany-s-long-admired-covid-19-response-trouble

@everythingthelighttouches no worries.

If I recall correctly Germany's first wave started in a younger age group than ours so possibly less care home deaths back then, yes.

Russia needed an autopsy to count them as a true covid death, so that steals whatever awards

I saw that. We'd have maybe 5000 deaths if we did this 😂😂

Thank you all.
I'll leave you to talk about schools again

[quote JamesAnderson]@everythingthelighttouches no worries.

If I recall correctly Germany's first wave started in a younger age group than ours so possibly less care home deaths back then, yes.

Russia needed an autopsy to count them as a true covid death, so that steals whatever awards

I saw that. We'd have maybe 5000 deaths if we did this 😂😂

Thank you all.
I'll leave you to talk about schools again[/quote]
Ha don’t do that. Prefer to take mind off it

[quote ElvisOperator]Regarding Germany this article is interesting:
www.newstatesman.com/world/europe/2020/12/why-germany-s-long-admired-covid-19-response-trouble[/quote]
This is very interesting thank you

This: Germans eye other countries’ Covid vaccine campaigns with envy - on.ft.com/3hCCgQ4
says that there is a lack of the Pfizer vaccine despite them developing it. I've wondered what other countries are doing about rollout if they are using one that needs super chilling.

How has Israel managed to get access so quickly to so much vaccine?

@MRex

Regarding primary schools, I've had a little look into how the list was chosen. The 5-9 age confirmed cases category in all the areas with closed primaries has rolling rate >300. Similar cases in neighbouring areas have 5-9 rolling rate 250 or less; it's actually a huge difference between some boroughs even where the cases are similar. I haven't checked them all, because I'm not on a laptop. If anyone's able to download the cases by age and filter just that category, then it could be interesting to see how many are close to that line because I think a few more areas might tip over it in the next week.

Ours is approximately 270 (not closed), but I don't think any Surrey ones have been told to close. Interestingly the 10-14yo one is lower, but I know that the secondaries in our area were either closed or at least half closed from end of November through to mid December, which explains that one to anyone with a inch of common sense. When the schools are shut the numbers in that age category goes down. Goodness, Holmes, how did you deduce that?

Do we think all primary schools will end up shutting eventually? We have just gone into Tier 3 and I’m anxious about schools going back.