Daily stats, numbers, data thread 28 Dec

[PatriciaHolm]

UK govt pressers Slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots imperialcollegelondon.github.io/covid19local/#table
School statistics Attendance explore-education-[statistics.service.gov.uk/find-statistics/attendance-in-education-and-early-years-settings-during-the-coronavirus-covid-19-outbreak]]
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHs England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSAO Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
CovidMessenger live update by council district in England www.covidmessenger.com/
Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, tests, ONS deaths [[public.tableau.com/profile/public.health.wales.health.protection#!/vizhome/RapidCOVID-19virology-Public/Headlinesummary
NI Dashboard app.powerbi.com/view?r=eyJrIjoiZGYxNjYzNmUtOTlmZS00ODAxLWE1YTEtMjA0NjZhMzlmN2JmIiwidCI6IjljOWEzMGRlLWQ4ZDctNGFhNC05NjAwLTRiZTc2MjVmZjZjNSIsImMiOjh9]]
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe Uk data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK read https_www.ecdc.europa.eu/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.ecdc.europa.eu%2Fen%2Fcases-2019-ncov-eueea
Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=gbr&areas=fra&areas=esp&areas=ita&areas=deu&areas=swe&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&byDate=1&cumulative=1&logScale=1&per100K=1&values=deaths
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/3869571-Studies-corner?msgid=99913434

We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these

Regarding primary schools, I've had a little look into how the list was chosen. The 5-9 age confirmed cases category in all the areas with closed primaries has rolling rate >300. Similar cases in neighbouring areas have 5-9 rolling rate 250 or less; it's actually a huge difference between some boroughs even where the cases are similar. I haven't checked them all, because I'm not on a laptop. If anyone's able to download the cases by age and filter just that category, then it could be interesting to see how many are close to that line because I think a few more areas might tip over it in the next week.

hmmm... wonder how they sorted that for areas with middle schools.

I think a few more areas might tip over it in the next week.
yes I've been noticing some areas that have high spots in those ages in Dec that doesn't occur in other ages.

I've also wondered if they've been able to identify higher rates of the new variant in age groups?

And not forgetting that grandparents often take a larger role when their grandchildren are young.

@MRex

Regarding primary schools, I've had a little look into how the list was chosen. The 5-9 age confirmed cases category in all the areas with closed primaries has rolling rate >300. Similar cases in neighbouring areas have 5-9 rolling rate 250 or less; it's actually a huge difference between some boroughs even where the cases are similar. I haven't checked them all, because I'm not on a laptop. If anyone's able to download the cases by age and filter just that category, then it could be interesting to see how many are close to that line because I think a few more areas might tip over it in the next week.

That’s interesting

Our London borough is not on list, but surrounded by those who are. We’ve not had interruption so far (I’m aware it can change)

@Piggyinblankets - not necessary, 10-14 is always higher so any primary restriction needed would automatically mean middle school is an issue.

Yes, that's what I meant mrex but the areas next to Milton Keynes have been left out of the 'contingency zones' and yet rates are very high.

Ah. This is where my laziness may have let us all down in looking at the stats, sorry. Milton Keynes has 421/100,000 for the 5-9s. What are the surrounding boroughs?

I missed what the mechanism was for re-opening contingency schools

Not sure how hard this is going to be

And do kids travel into Milton Keynes for middle school, or out, or both?

@MRex

Regarding primary schools, I've had a little look into how the list was chosen. The 5-9 age confirmed cases category in all the areas with closed primaries has rolling rate >300. Similar cases in neighbouring areas have 5-9 rolling rate 250 or less; it's actually a huge difference between some boroughs even where the cases are similar. I haven't checked them all, because I'm not on a laptop. If anyone's able to download the cases by age and filter just that category, then it could be interesting to see how many are close to that line because I think a few more areas might tip over it in the next week.

Very interesting. Strange that it doesn't match recent reports that schools cases reflect community cases. I wonder how much of it at the fine level will simply be noise? If cases for an individual Borough for a 5 year age range are being looked at, this can't be many cases I'd imagine.

Do you know for sure that this is how they came to the decision? Or just noticed that the data explains the choice?

Where did you find that data?

Can you point me to a table I can check that on MRex?

They travel out of MK to schools in Beds,and there are also Middle schools in the MK authority which feed into Central Beds Upper Schools!

We weren't told of a mechanism marsha which is a concern...

Buses are shared between MK and Central Beds schools too....

@PatriciaHolm

ONS is due on the 8th, so missing a week.

National flu reports (The PHE doc) didn't miss a week last Christmas, so who knows??

25/26 December were Wednesday/Thursday in 2019. 2020 leap year pushed them to Friday/Monday so may explain a missed week?

Re London Boroughs and primary closures - on another thread LB Redbridge has tweeted it was 'left off the list' and their primary schools will be closed. Wonder if any more have been 'left off'.

@Piggyinblankets

We weren't told of a mechanism marsha which is a concern...

Eep...

Tg we have a vaccine

Those asking where it comes from; in the gov cases detail page, when you search on a specific area you get a heatmap. Click on the cases by an age range for the details. I only spotted the pattern from looking at 10 areas plus some not selected, to see why there was variation.

I think they've set themselves up for some arguments with the few remaining London boroughs they've said the primaries can open in. Even at primary age, it's not uncommon to cross borough boundaries to go to school, especially for private and faith schools - which there are quite a lot of. Plus they'll be teachers whose own children are off school because they live/school in a borough that's closed. I'd place money on there being sufficient uproar from anxious teachers and parents (or further rise in cases over the coming days) that they manage to find all remaining London boroughs have been "left off the list" and they all end up closed.

It also seems a bit odd to be looking at case rates among 5-9 year olds to decide where to close, rather than overall case rates. Given there's been at least 2 weeks of Christmas holidays, the primary aged children who have Covid by early January are likely to have caught it from the family, or wider community rather than each other. So it's the overall case rates that would matter most.

@Firefliess

I think they've set themselves up for some arguments with the few remaining London boroughs they've said the primaries can open in. Even at primary age, it's not uncommon to cross borough boundaries to go to school, especially for private and faith schools - which there are quite a lot of. Plus they'll be teachers whose own children are off school because they live/school in a borough that's closed. I'd place money on there being sufficient uproar from anxious teachers and parents (or further rise in cases over the coming days) that they manage to find all remaining London boroughs have been "left off the list" and they all end up closed.

I hope not

Me too @Marsh But having most of London closed and just a few areas open I think we add to the pressure from the open areas

@Firefliess - there may be some other formula, it's just my speculation. If cases had remained low in that age group then closing primaries looks like an over-reaction, but if cases are high for that age group then it's dangerous.

I am looking for these heat maps and can't find them. Sorry, being useless but does anyone have a link?

Ignore me : found it...

The rolling rate for 5 - 9 in C Beds is 254. For ages 10-19 is 765! Which is certainly fascinating in that middle school authority...