Daily stats, numbers, data thread 28 Dec

[PatriciaHolm]

UK govt pressers Slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots imperialcollegelondon.github.io/covid19local/#table
School statistics Attendance explore-education-[statistics.service.gov.uk/find-statistics/attendance-in-education-and-early-years-settings-during-the-coronavirus-covid-19-outbreak]]
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHs England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSAO Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
CovidMessenger live update by council district in England www.covidmessenger.com/
Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, tests, ONS deaths [[public.tableau.com/profile/public.health.wales.health.protection#!/vizhome/RapidCOVID-19virology-Public/Headlinesummary
NI Dashboard app.powerbi.com/view?r=eyJrIjoiZGYxNjYzNmUtOTlmZS00ODAxLWE1YTEtMjA0NjZhMzlmN2JmIiwidCI6IjljOWEzMGRlLWQ4ZDctNGFhNC05NjAwLTRiZTc2MjVmZjZjNSIsImMiOjh9]]
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe Uk data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK read https_www.ecdc.europa.eu/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.ecdc.europa.eu%2Fen%2Fcases-2019-ncov-eueea
Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=gbr&areas=fra&areas=esp&areas=ita&areas=deu&areas=swe&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&byDate=1&cumulative=1&logScale=1&per100K=1&values=deaths
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/3869571-Studies-corner?msgid=99913434

We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these

Can anyone suggest where I can look at GW's schools speech please.

I got lost in the detail and I'm unclear if secondary pupils will have remote learning until 18th or just go back on 18th?

I realise that the situation for exam years, vulnerable children and children of key workers has been clearer- but for my Y9 DS I am still confused.

I suppose the real conclusion is that the 'truest' up to date figure for any day is the total 5 days earlier. Perhaps that should be the one reported 'headline', along with the (necessarily incomplete) figures for the last 4 days.

I wonder how many people reading the number are under the impression that it is the number of deaths that day. I would imagine quite a few. Perhaps it does not usually matter too much, as the trend will usually be broadly correct - but occasionally it is very relevant to know.

GW speech here I think

www.gov.uk/government/speeches/education-secretary-sets-out-school-contingency-plans-for-england

1 in 70 positive according to Prof van Tam in briefing.

(I think in England)

You can watch him on the "Parliament live.tv" website chaotic - I did have him on, but Im afraid I didn't keep up with the detail on secondary schools. (And the Hansard transcript will be available fairly soon, but not immediately.)

Ah! Peridito's solution is better!

@YuleAreBeingUnREASTIEable

Could anyone help me find the graph that shows cases in primary schools sharply rising before Christmas? I’ve looked and I can’t find it anywhere. I’m in the process of giving a list of data led points to dcs school explaining why I will be keeping her home at the start of term (and let them deregister her or fine us if they want, this is, for me, ridiculous).

You want the ONS survey.

www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/24december2020

@Aixenprovence and @peridito thank you

@Aixenprovence

You can watch him on the "Parliament live.tv" website chaotic - I did have him on, but Im afraid I didn't keep up with the detail on secondary schools. (And the Hansard transcript will be available fairly soon, but not immediately.)

Gav's speech is here

www.gov.uk/government/speeches/education-secretary-sets-out-school-contingency-plans-for-england

but it's (funnily enough) not entirely clear. It doesn't say explicitly whether non exam years should have online learning from 11th; I think it's clear there is nothing for them week of 4th, but it's not clear whether they expect online learning for 11-18th or not. I would suspect yes.

@PatriciaHolm I agree. I've read the speech and it really is not clear if any online teaching is expected for non exam years until they return on 18th.

Will more detailed guidance be provided to schools? Because if they are required to work only from the info in that speech then they will be as stumped as we are!

[quote Chaotic45]@PatriciaHolm I agree. I've read the speech and it really is not clear if any online teaching is expected for non exam years until they return on 18th.

Will more detailed guidance be provided to schools? Because if they are required to work only from the info in that speech then they will be as stumped as we are! [/quote]
There will be detailed guidance, but who knows when it will land. Sunday 11pm? (I'm only half joking. Previous schools guidance has previously landed about 10pm only a day or so before implementation.)

What is the rationale for areas where primaries are closing? Our London borough is one of the better ones in terms of numbers of case per 100k but schools will be closed, next door borough has higher numbers but not on list? Growth rate instead? Hospital beds available? Although closest hospital to us is in the borough not closing.

I took some screen shots:

assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/948580/Contingency_framework_implementation_guidance.pdf
This gives a list of affected boroughs

Did a quick basic comparison of boroughs that are closing for primary schools with those that are opening and it seems to be dependent on growth rates rather than numbers of cases per 100k. Our borough had an increase of 330+ cases last week, we’re on the closed list. Next door borough had an increase of 70+ cases last week, they’re not on the list. Next door borough has higher numbers per 100k and has done for some time.

My area had a 500% increase last week : primaries open.

My main worry, as a teacher, is this heavy trumpeting of,and reliance on Lateral Flow Testing as a way of avoiding SI. This really seems foolish and foolhardy.

I also think no one suggesting a bunch of teens will willingly and competently swab themselves has ever seen peer pressure/ health anxiety/ teenage silliness in action. Highly motivated and adult Birmingham Uni students couldn't do it properly!!

On not doing it properly can I ask if you do it incorrectly does it read as negative or inconclusive?

For PCR?
And LF

The PCR has an internal control for sufficient sample but the lateral flow does not.

Also v unreliable if asymptomatic... hummmmm.

So PCR comes out as Inconclusive, LFT results in a (false) Negative. Great.

The table of cases in each council is updated with today's data on www.covidmessenger.com

A word of caution - data relates to swab/specimen date of Dec 25th - a date many will be less likely to book a test and there may also have been less testing processing /capacity. I think it is fair to assume Dec 24/25/26 will be data anomalies for various reasons and we will see a drop in daily numbers on these dates which does not signify a drop in cases.

As such, unsuprisingly many councils see a significant (sometimes massive) "drop" in cases on this date. But preliminary data for 27th and onwards shows the pre-christmas-day trend picking back up - again unsurprisingly.

What is rather humbling, is that despite these large drops in cases on the 24th and 25th, these are still doing nothing to dent the weekly number of cases - we see huge rises week-over-week.

I think we will have a larger number of cases by specimen date feeding through for specimen dates of 27/28/29/30 - those individuals who held off going to be tested on 24/25/26

I fear keeping the primaries open in the rest of Tier 4 is going to end up being similar to the scandal of the care homes deaths.

I also expect they may be factoring in the lower ages (overall) of primary parents in their reasoning... which isn't very reassuring to those of us who left it all rather late....

Please does anyone know when the PHE and ONS surveillance reports are out this week? Will it be different with the bank holidays?

ONS is due on the 8th, so missing a week.

National flu reports (The PHE doc) didn't miss a week last Christmas, so who knows??