Daily stats, numbers, data thread 28 Dec

[PatriciaHolm]

UK govt pressers Slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots imperialcollegelondon.github.io/covid19local/#table
School statistics Attendance explore-education-[statistics.service.gov.uk/find-statistics/attendance-in-education-and-early-years-settings-during-the-coronavirus-covid-19-outbreak]]
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHs England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSAO Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
CovidMessenger live update by council district in England www.covidmessenger.com/
Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, tests, ONS deaths [[public.tableau.com/profile/public.health.wales.health.protection#!/vizhome/RapidCOVID-19virology-Public/Headlinesummary
NI Dashboard app.powerbi.com/view?r=eyJrIjoiZGYxNjYzNmUtOTlmZS00ODAxLWE1YTEtMjA0NjZhMzlmN2JmIiwidCI6IjljOWEzMGRlLWQ4ZDctNGFhNC05NjAwLTRiZTc2MjVmZjZjNSIsImMiOjh9]]
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe Uk data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK read https_www.ecdc.europa.eu/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.ecdc.europa.eu%2Fen%2Fcases-2019-ncov-eueea
Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=gbr&areas=fra&areas=esp&areas=ita&areas=deu&areas=swe&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&byDate=1&cumulative=1&logScale=1&per100K=1&values=deaths
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/3869571-Studies-corner?msgid=99913434

We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these

50,023

981 deaths.

150,000 vials a day already being produced in Wrexham

981 deaths.

Is this due a lag in reporting? This seems horrific

Maybe this was obvious to everyone but me:
on the gov map view -you know, the colorful thingy- the rates are up until 24th of Dec.
Totally makes sense, but I wasn't even looking at it so bit surprised now when it caught my eye.
Thought I'd highlight it if someone else is as blind as me :)

OH Lord. How much of that is backlog?

I feel awful referring to people as a backlog.

@littlestpogo

Did anyone else watching Matt Hancock think he said we have 510 000 doses of the vaccine ( assume he meant Oxford) available with more in February?

I’m assuming ( hoping?) that can’t be correct.

I'm pretty sure he said 'by February' not 'in February' - which I've taken to mean that these additional vaccinations will be available before February ie during January.

I may be mistaken though. I find it very interesting how easy it is for different people to interpret things differently- it just shows how important it is that these speeches are written in a way to reduce the opportunity for misinterpretation.

I think someone said yesterday that today would be around 1,000 because of the delay in reporting deaths, like happens on a normal Tuesday after the dip in reporting at weekends.

I hope this is the backlog.

@Chaotic45 yes, I put a link to an article that has the rate the Oxford vaccine has been being manufactured in Wrexham

The deaths look bad, but actually over the whole week they're pretty flat/down a little (-1%) I don't think we'll get a proper picture until after the festive period.

[quote schimmelreiter]@Chaotic45 yes, I put a link to an article that has the rate the Oxford vaccine has been being manufactured in Wrexham[/quote]
Apologies @schimmelreiter , I missed that link. The thread is moving so fast! I'll go back and find it. Thank you.

@lunar1

I hope this is the backlog.

Doesn't look like it

twitter.com/RP131/status/1344314296935870465/photo/1

@TheSunIsStillShining

I have 1 question (ok, a million, but I'll just go for one now)

I'm happy that sec schools will be delayed until the 18th (if all goes well). But what do they expect to happen after the 18th if they:

• send kids back to the same environment as before*
• no mass vaccinations is going to happen by then
• even if a miracle happened and our numbers were in the 100s not 50k+ there is still no effective ttr....

*- even worse because no isolation but flawed lateral flow test idea

What will prevent us from being in almost exactly in the same position as now in 2 months?

Did anyone with at least one brain cell thought this through?
There's kicking the can down the road and then there's this.

But isn't that just what happens with rolling lockdowns? The choices are delay the rise in cases but see it again later, do nothing or keep people in strict lockdown and schools closed for, what, six months?, if we're waiting on mass vaccination. They're all bad options but only the first one is viable.

@Hardbackwriter
I'll go out on a limb and suggest:

1. suppress numbers to below 5k. 1 month almost full lockdown, schools online (except KW)
2. in the meantime create a ttr system that works
3. start easing up with rotas in school, no hospitality but other retail open, etc. Keep ttr going and MONITOR the numbers. Local intervention at clusters
4. in the meantime start vaccinating.
5. create a strategy and plan for what happens when 50% of the population is vaccinated, so effective protection is in only 65% of the 40% (can't be bothered).

The only thing we see from the data is that there needs to be harsh actions taken. Gaslighting the pop with vacc and other shit is useless when it will take many-many month to achieve even a min. level of safety on a gen pop scale.
And even then -given we don't know the transmission suppressing capability (of lack of) of the vacc- there will still need to be other measures.

Atm what I see is everyone being happy over something that will not happen within a year and simply deciding not to deal with the actual reality of today and january and the coming months.

Lovely data ladies, would any of you be able to take a punt on which primaries will be impacted by the latest announcement? Case rate over 500? 1000?

@Hardbackwriter
also: I'd rather plan ahead for 4-6 months than have to re-plan every 3 weeks. We know that this is not going away. We know that schools are the biggest drivers. We know that travel is not a good thing. And nothing indicates that these will change in the next 3 months.
Why would it be so hard to have a strategy for a quarter?
Every company on earth operates on forecasting for Qs, it's not that hard. I've done it for years. Surely there must be enough employees in gov to be able to do it

Could anyone help me find the graph that shows cases in primary schools sharply rising before Christmas? I’ve looked and I can’t find it anywhere. I’m in the process of giving a list of data led points to dcs school explaining why I will be keeping her home at the start of term (and let them deregister her or fine us if they want, this is, for me, ridiculous).

From Richard on Twitter

“Important to note how all of today's huge 981 deaths number is shown in orange below. Can you see a spike? No - it's just filling in the gaps due to xmas reporting backlogs. In fact it even looks to be going down a little.“

Sorry, graph here

Yule there are the Heat Maps on the gov.uk site.

My area doesn't show this but I think a lot of areas would. But a good way to visualise it? Good Luck. My kids will return but completely different circumstances I suspect.

Thanks @Chaotic45 that makes sense am I assumed I’d misheard ( do agree it’s why the written record is so important )

I’d guess over 1000 per 100k, 15 local authorities currently, or over 900 per 100k that’s an extra 7. He said ‘in a small number of areas where infection rates are highest’. If you include all LAs over 500 your looking at 70+ areas, is that a small number? I don’t know, I’m in an area with over 600 per 100k, not sure if I want primary schools to close or not. I thought they would be, have two kids year 4 and year 6 but also struggle to run our family businesses while homeschooling, fall between the gaps of financial help as we’re both company directors so working longer hours already just to keep afloat and paying the mortgage ...

The twitter clarifying that they've been told that the 530k is not 'the lot' for january, and there will be "many more" (how many?) over the month. Perhaps a question for the press con in a few minutes?

Others pointing out that there was a report a few weeks ago that 4mn would be delivered by the end of this year.

Thanks for the Richard chart everything - extremely informative.

It would be interesting to know if the dashboard could have an additional headline item presenting it in this way - or does it already?

@Aixenprovence

Thanks for the Richard chart everything - extremely informative.

It would be interesting to know if the dashboard could have an additional headline item presenting it in this way - or does it already?

The dashboard does have a graph by date of death, as well as date reported, but not one that illustrates "when today's deaths actually happened" which makes the point more clearly in days of big numbers, I think!