Daily stats, numbers, data thread 28 Dec

[PatriciaHolm]

UK govt pressers Slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots imperialcollegelondon.github.io/covid19local/#table
School statistics Attendance explore-education-[statistics.service.gov.uk/find-statistics/attendance-in-education-and-early-years-settings-during-the-coronavirus-covid-19-outbreak]]
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHs England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSAO Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
CovidMessenger live update by council district in England www.covidmessenger.com/
Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, tests, ONS deaths [[public.tableau.com/profile/public.health.wales.health.protection#!/vizhome/RapidCOVID-19virology-Public/Headlinesummary
NI Dashboard app.powerbi.com/view?r=eyJrIjoiZGYxNjYzNmUtOTlmZS00ODAxLWE1YTEtMjA0NjZhMzlmN2JmIiwidCI6IjljOWEzMGRlLWQ4ZDctNGFhNC05NjAwLTRiZTc2MjVmZjZjNSIsImMiOjh9]]
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe Uk data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK read https_www.ecdc.europa.eu/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.ecdc.europa.eu%2Fen%2Fcases-2019-ncov-eueea
Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=gbr&areas=fra&areas=esp&areas=ita&areas=deu&areas=swe&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&byDate=1&cumulative=1&logScale=1&per100K=1&values=deaths
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/3869571-Studies-corner?msgid=99913434

We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these

But yes the government has crap all strategy and has over promised and under delivered.

@TheSunIsStillShining more eloquently out than my emotive posts but basically my fear. If we use Oxford (especially on vulnerable) and it’s not good enough that’s our one chance over (without more trials/data)

The go ahead for Oxford isn’t base on what is best for our country it’s based on safety/>50%. That’s not good enough to get us out of this. Are our Government scientifically minded enough to choose the right vaccines for right people? I’m jaded enough to say in this crisis no.

TheSun I don't think its nationalistic as such.

If I could chose Pfizer or Moderna I probably would.

Its more a case of being realistic.

Do I think it will prevent us getting future vaccines - no I don't.

Do I think any of the vaccines will give us lasting immunity - probably not

Do I believe that if its approved by the MHRA then I should get it when it's my turn - yes i do.

Would i encourage my parents to get it - yes I would.

[quote Oaktree55]@Wakeupin2022 your whole argument is based on fact that Oxford will work. Data doesn’t yet support that. What would I do? I’d wait given Novavax (one dose) around corner. There’s no going back once people had Oxford. Novavax seems far superior and we’ve orders 60m.[/quote]
Novavax is two shots isn't it? Johnson and Johnson the only single dose vaccine in stage 3 trials so far, I think? www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/11/will-small-long-shot-us-company-end-producing-best-coronavirus-vaccine

@AnyFucker

Does anyone know what time any announcements are to be made tomorrow re. areas being moved into new tiers please

I believe 3pm However that assumes that the Brexit debate and vote is all wrapped up by 230pm. So could be subject to some delay

@AnyFucker

Does anyone know what time any announcements are to be made tomorrow re. areas being moved into new tiers please

Given the PM's meeting is tonight, I'd guess a leak to the press about, say, 11? ;-)

The house of commons has to debate the EU deal first tomorrow morning, before Hancock addresses it, in which he will lay out the plan. Then I would imagine a Press Conference at the normal 5pm, but of course it's asking way too much for them to actually say that today....

@CoffeeandCroissant I’m probably wrong you’re normally right so I stand corrected. I still want it though 🤣

@lunar1 I’m sorry you’re stressed but debate is important and I personally can’t see how data indicative of people dying is less stressful. Numbers are lives.

[quote Oaktree55]@TheSunIsStillShining more eloquently out than my emotive posts but basically my fear. If we use Oxford (especially on vulnerable) and it’s not good enough that’s our one chance over (without more trials/data)

The go ahead for Oxford isn’t base on what is best for our country it’s based on safety/>50%. That’s not good enough to get us out of this. Are our Government scientifically minded enough to choose the right vaccines for right people? I’m jaded enough to say in this crisis no.[/quote]
Why is it our one chance over?

@midgeghost there aren’t trials yet for “mixing” vaccine types.

@Wakeupin2022
Again, I'm not saying it's shit.
What I am saying is that many people -not you specifically, but looking into a wider void on the internet- hail it as our savior when in reality there are a lot of questions around it.

Given that data is not public domain - it may as well be that it is our savior. But we are not allowed to know. Which is never a good sign. And worse is that there are no peer reviews. We should trust a gov body solely because they say so.

Exactly my point it’s a disgrace the U.K. is in this position on so many fronts. Yet the majority seem grateful for any scraps of normality we get thrown. That’s what I’m struggling to understand.

So....?

A bit of light relief

@midgeghost so if Oxford proves ineffective we can’t just shove another vaccine in the arm

And there was me thinking that the whole point of the regulation was to see if it was effective or not before giving it?

If you don't believe that the MHRA are right to approve AZ then we can't trust anything they do approve.

We don't know with any certainty whether another vaccine can be used or not after Oxford has been given (if it is) although I see no particular reason to assume it would definitely not be possible. Plenty of vaccines are given repeatedly without incident.

The fact remains that we do not have any other options available to us in the immediate future. That is the reality. We are not in a hypothetical world with unlimited access to Pfizer and Novavax also requires two doses and has not yet concluded stage 3 trials (indeed the US arm of the stage 3 trial only commenced on 28th December).

We are at the edge of tolerance for restrictions, the status quo cannot be maintained indefinitely whilst we wait for a perfect solution.

It's likely we'll have lots of different Covid vaccines given to us over the years.

[quote Oaktree55]@midgeghost so if Oxford proves ineffective we can’t just shove another vaccine in the arm[/quote]
This worries me too. The Oxford can’t be boosted in the future without changing the vector, right?

Hopefully it wouldn’t pose problems for taking an mRNA vaccine in the future, but we don’t know.

I think I’d prefer the MHRA held off on authorising the Oxford vaccine until they’ve got the dosage combination/gap between dosage details properly verified in a larger trial. The standard dose/standard dose results are not great, particularly given they excluded atypical symptomatic Covid cases (like gastro-dominant Covid) in calculating the 62% efficacy rate.

(Presuming they haven’t been able to give MHRA a significant new chunk of data from cases over the past month).

@Em777 hopefully it will be fine but as yet there’s no trial /data.

See guys this is the data thread I’m getting there 🤣

Re the approval I’m not sure why people aren’t understanding. The process is to approve a safe and efficacious vaccine. The bar was set at 50% globally. Will a 50%+ efficacious vaccine get U.K. out of current hole without restrictions. No even with 100 uptake.

That’s my point. The approval bar isn’t “please choose a vaccine to get U.K. back to normal”

Do people think the flu vaccine is the same provider each year? That there are restrictions based on who made it? Here's just the FDA's list of manufacturers:
www.fda.gov/vaccines-blood-biologics/lot-release/influenza-vaccine-2020-2021-season.
It's a straw man. Many of these arguments have been, but unfortunately emotions are heightened and it's easy to spread anxiety.

@MRex they won’t be allowed to shove an mRNA or different type of vaccine in peoples arms after Oxford without a trial!

Another sleight of hand. MHRA's job is to approve safety with minimum efficacy at 50%. JCVI's job is to confirm which groups get which vaccine out of all the candidates now and coming down the line. These are skilled people who will be judged on what they do, they are still deciding what to do. It makes no sense to criticise decisions when they haven't actually made them and will issue the details behind those decisions to explain them at the time when they do.

@mrex it’ll be judged on supply too. If there’s no Pfizer available the vulnerable may well get Oxford.