Daily stats, numbers, data thread 28 Dec

[PatriciaHolm]

UK govt pressers Slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots imperialcollegelondon.github.io/covid19local/#table
School statistics Attendance explore-education-[statistics.service.gov.uk/find-statistics/attendance-in-education-and-early-years-settings-during-the-coronavirus-covid-19-outbreak]]
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHs England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSAO Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
CovidMessenger live update by council district in England www.covidmessenger.com/
Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, tests, ONS deaths [[public.tableau.com/profile/public.health.wales.health.protection#!/vizhome/RapidCOVID-19virology-Public/Headlinesummary
NI Dashboard app.powerbi.com/view?r=eyJrIjoiZGYxNjYzNmUtOTlmZS00ODAxLWE1YTEtMjA0NjZhMzlmN2JmIiwidCI6IjljOWEzMGRlLWQ4ZDctNGFhNC05NjAwLTRiZTc2MjVmZjZjNSIsImMiOjh9]]
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe Uk data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK read https_www.ecdc.europa.eu/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.ecdc.europa.eu%2Fen%2Fcases-2019-ncov-eueea
Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=gbr&areas=fra&areas=esp&areas=ita&areas=deu&areas=swe&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&byDate=1&cumulative=1&logScale=1&per100K=1&values=deaths
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/3869571-Studies-corner?msgid=99913434

We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these

Can we please just ignore the hysterics, there is an oxvax thread now where that discussion can happen. I'm rather sad we lost bigchocfrenzy, I dont want to lose anyone else

@laudemio mmm I’m not shutting up I’m afraid when I have valid points

[quote Oaktree55]@Wakeupin2022 Jesus they only have to approve > 50% not what’s best for U.K. Thats entire point of my rants. Then approving means v little for U.K. situation all we can glean is it’s >50% efficacious and safe.[/quote]

50% is a hell of a lot better than what we have got today!

We had >50k infections today and the virus is spreading incredibly fast. Many areas of the country are locked down and more to follow tomorrow. Schools Will possibly not reopen which is devastating for the children, many people are being hospitalised and many are dying.

What do you want us to do? Shout from the rooftops that Oxford is flawed? Demand more Pfizer? When everyone else is doing the same?

As for Sputnik? Or one of the Chinese vaccines you were raving about yesterday- where no data has been published (yes I know you rowed back on that)

What is the alternative? Give me an alternative that we can start rolling out next week and i may come around to your way of thinking.

At the moment though, all I see is someone who really is against the Oxford vaccine & thinks the UK doesn't deserve 2nd best, but isn't offering an alternative.

Give me a suitable alternative and I will write to my MP.

@Wakeupin2022 your whole argument is based on fact that Oxford will work. Data doesn’t yet support that. What would I do? I’d wait given Novavax (one dose) around corner. There’s no going back once people had Oxford. Novavax seems far superior and we’ve orders 60m.

@laudemio

Can we please just ignore the hysterics, there is an oxvax thread now where that discussion can happen. I'm rather sad we lost bigchocfrenzy, I dont want to lose anyone else

I agree. A certain poster here is basically just ranting in between taking shots at her Sarah Gilbert dartboard. Best leave it be and see what the MHRA decide.

@IcedPurple for the umpteenth time their decision is to approve anything >50% not approve what’s best for U.K.

Read up on Novavax data. Compare to Oxford. See what you’d do considering Phase 3 started early Nov and likely completing soon. It’s a one shot vaccine far superior in animal trials etc. It’s an interesting data debate.

Oak that one does sound promising but its not ready yet!

We need something now. I do believe that Oxford will make a positive difference yes, from my basic understanding of the results published.

It may not be as good a Pfizer but its easier to rollout so even if it doesn't give as good results we can get it in arms faster.

Thats where I am at the moment. And I think its where many others are at the moment too. My critical thinking has taken me there!

And I don't think any of us believe that even the Pfizer will give lasting immunity!

Yes I read loads of other information about Covid 19.

I do not live in a fantasy world where I think I'll be able to pay for my choice of jab any time soon.

@Wakeupin2022 Oxford is unlikely to be robots enough for vulnerable. The trials demonstrate that. You watch out Government use it in desperation and us pay the price.

Robust

I think this ire is misdirected.

It’s not misdirected. Yes I agree I’m venting here as it’s a representation of how Society feels which is let’s get a quick fix. I’m trying to point out the error in that.

"Re Positivity Rates: these were added to the dashboard about a week ago. Available for England down to regions and local authority levels
See attached link for England and screenshot
coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/testing?areaType=nation&areaName=England"

Thanks ceeveebeegeedeehee (sorry can't remember precise name so just throwing in a few extra syllables) - this is just what I wanted - how did you know?!! So that is up to 24th Dec - presumably because after that the data is still very incomplete?

Anyway I’m done. I do think there benefit to wider reading off this forum and a benefit from not taking too much from here. I wouldn’t be so dogmatic in my views were I not confident in my points. I think there’s a danger we’re all looking for a quick fix and unfortunately it doesn’t exist in our predicament. Anyway until this plays out no one knows but it’s good to consider the realistic alternatives even if they’re not what we hope for.

Am I missing something, or does that graph suggest that the increase in 7 day average positive results to 24 December is not particularly sharp (realise the position to 28th may be, by the time the complete figures are available).

coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/testing?areaType=nation&areaName=England

@Aixenprovence
Thanks mrex, and that would have to be divided by the number of tests taken on each day as well, to be strictly accurate?
Yes, though thinking further the test tally is minus 1 day and cases can only be tallied after 5 days to ensure the majority are in.

If you look up by region or local area on this page there is positivity in a graph. Which makes me deeply unhappy to see London at 17%. However, it is doing today's identified cases (usually from the last 5 days) against today's tests (usually yesterday's). In the grand scheme of things, it rarely makes much difference but it can be thrown out by bank holidays, backlogs etc.
coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/testing?areaType=region&areaName=London.

Sorry if someone else already answered, I just came back to 6 pages and working my way through from where I left off.

> 50% is a hell of a lot better than what we have got today!

Actually this is my problem.
No, it's not necessarily.
IF:
get oxford/AZ jab=YES then other jab in the future=NO

From a strategic helicopter view I understand why "better than nothing" is a valid(ish) view.
BUT when running a country it's not good enough. It's short sighted.

1. I don't believe MHRA will approve based on what is needed for the UK. They will approve against a checklist where some key numbers (efficacy) have been selected by politicians rather than healthcare professionals. I can't prove it, but the last 10 months makes me quite confident in saying this.

1. I feel -again subjective- that there is a hint of populist nationalism behind the AZ vaccine which prohibits rational debate.

1. Non-transparency is the hugest issue. I don't like it when regulatory bodies hide bodies in the cupboard. I think that all standards, trial data, methodology -especially in this case- should be made public domain. I won't be ever in a position to actually question on a formal level anything (lack of skill and position), but at least I can also form my opinion and I can do my comparison.

When you buy a big item (eg sofa for 10k) you meticulously compare all aspects. Even the details of where the leather comes from. At least that's what I do.

1. Back to my IF statement. Treat the below as assumptions. Imagine that the MHRA approves AZ. Efficacy=50%. 80% of the population get vaccinated. Roughly 40% population will be actually safer. And in 3 months time we P (or someone else) ramps up capacity do make 1m doses/day of something where efficacy=95%. We will be left in a position where we cannot give P to 80% of the population as there have been no trials to test what happens if AZ first, then P (or other). I don't even see this being discussed.

And that leaves us on an island where mutation is a very clear possibility. Which in turn could put us in a position of being fenced off in order to not endanger the rest of the world.

My point is: I do not see any indication from this government that they have been thinking about a strategic plan for the country. 10 months in and there is no clear exit strategy. It's "let's go where the wind blows us". Which is more than frightening.
What I see is extreme short term scrambling instead of planning and weighing up risks and possibilities.
This also yield unfounded optimism in many groups, where these hopes will be crushed because they are not realistic in the first place. And that can lead to more anxiety, unrest, distrust.....

Sorry, one more clarification to my IF statement.
Atm this is what we know to be true simply because no trials have been conducted. If this is nullified than it's again a totally new ballgame.

[quote Aixenprovence]Am I missing something, or does that graph suggest that the increase in 7 day average positive results to 24 December is not particularly sharp (realise the position to 28th may be, by the time the complete figures are available).

coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/testing?areaType=nation&areaName=England[/quote]
As you say, I think they don't use the data from the last 5 days as it is deemed incomplete, so it is a bit behind. The other data they have published suggests % rate might go down then up again slightly this week but the data is too incomplete really to draw any conclusions really.

Does anyone know what time any announcements are to be made tomorrow re. areas being moved into new tiers please

I'm not biased due to AZ being British. Couldn't give a toss where my vaccine comes from. Long as it's safe and works.