Daily stats, numbers, data thread 28 Dec

[PatriciaHolm]

UK govt pressers Slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots imperialcollegelondon.github.io/covid19local/#table
School statistics Attendance explore-education-[statistics.service.gov.uk/find-statistics/attendance-in-education-and-early-years-settings-during-the-coronavirus-covid-19-outbreak]]
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHs England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSAO Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
CovidMessenger live update by council district in England www.covidmessenger.com/
Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, tests, ONS deaths [[public.tableau.com/profile/public.health.wales.health.protection#!/vizhome/RapidCOVID-19virology-Public/Headlinesummary
NI Dashboard app.powerbi.com/view?r=eyJrIjoiZGYxNjYzNmUtOTlmZS00ODAxLWE1YTEtMjA0NjZhMzlmN2JmIiwidCI6IjljOWEzMGRlLWQ4ZDctNGFhNC05NjAwLTRiZTc2MjVmZjZjNSIsImMiOjh9]]
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe Uk data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK read https_www.ecdc.europa.eu/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.ecdc.europa.eu%2Fen%2Fcases-2019-ncov-eueea
Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=gbr&areas=fra&areas=esp&areas=ita&areas=deu&areas=swe&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&byDate=1&cumulative=1&logScale=1&per100K=1&values=deaths
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/3869571-Studies-corner?msgid=99913434

We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these

@PatriciaHolm thank you . That’s reassuring. It does seem to me that the positivity rate should be reported also and I know Vallance (or Whitty) has always been quite keen to mention it . So if you test with symptoms you have about a 91pc of being negative. And then even within that 9pc the chances of being very ill are very low, even for the ECV and very elderly. Something to hold onto.

@Yummyoldbag yes I wouldn’t be so confident in my views otherwise. Oxford has huge holes. I’m very humble in my own views. Expert opinion in the real world costs £’sssss hence I appreciate it when it’s free. Guys don’t believe me? Google my “opinions” it’s all there.

The sensible media does seem to be focusing on hospital capacity. Which is where the issue is of course. PM prog today had a compelling piece about this.

@Oaktree55

The difficulty is that this is the data thread and as yet there isn't sufficient data about the Oxford vaccine to do anything other than make hypotheses without anything substantive to back anything up or establish anything. That will probably change in due course but for now it is what it is.

Is there a general average of cases that are likely to end up with someone being hospitalised?

This comment on the Oxford groups findings published in the Lancet 8/12 is interesting. These two experts from John Hopkins conclude it is safe and efficacious, whilst noting that different contexts might require different priorities as regards vaccine.

www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)32623-4/fulltext

One huge benefit of Oxford vaccine, I comparison with others, is that the effects on asymptomatic Covid were evaluated. I hope MHRA give it the green light, although will be happy to accept their expert opinion based on more data if they decline to go with this right now.

@Sunshinegirl82 come on seriously?!? You know there’s enough data to know it’s a total pigs ear of a trial. You cannot in good faith deny that. Crikey this thread is like denial thread 🤦🏽‍♀️

Also, what might be helpful is if the numbers of people being discharged could be published too. I know you can work it out from the admissions and in hospital numbers but actually having it as an already calculated figure would keep a sense of perspective.

@Yummyoldbag in case it’s passed posters by, the U.K. is in the midst of a catastrophe. We’re mid new variant and sorry to break up your party but a 62% efficacious vaccine ain’t going to cut it, nor is a 3 month delayed dosing vaccine. 🤦🏽‍♀️

The denial stuff being lobbed about is wearing thin. By all means set up a new thread.

If the data is good enough the MRHA will approve it.

Sorry if the annoys the denialism but hey 🤷🏽‍♀️

One of the huge advantages of this thread is that people generally cite sources rather than say, go google it! Too many rabbit holes in the Wild West of google!

Hospital capacity is vital to decision making...on that basis I would vote for a tight lockdown, sadly including schools. It will be interesting to see what Rates are like for the new strain north of London over the next few days. Having been battered so badly over the past few months I am sure they can not face another explosion in cases right now.

@MarshaBradyo what needs to get through your head that their approval is >50%. What gets U.K. out if this mess is likely different.

@Oaktree55

Sorry if the annoys the denialism but hey 🤷🏽‍♀️

You're just deliberately goading posters now.

No need to be rude Oak.

No, @Oaktree55 I don't know that because there has been significant data provided to the regulator which is not in the public domain. I accept that the data currently available has holes but whether those holes have been filled by subsequent data we don't know, because we don't have the data!!

All we can do is ask questions that at present cannot be answered. That's not to say that asking questions is a bad thing but the reason there will be resistance to those type of discussions on the data thread is that there just isn't the data to look at to go anywhere with it.

I don’t know why anyone would frustrate themselves by hanging around if they didn’t think people on here knew what they were talking about.

I do think they do in the main, it’s a good thread, so happy to hang around,

I've been lurking a while now. I definitely want to be vaccinated, having lived a very lonely life over 2020 - started shielding in Feb & advised to do so through lockdown.

I am worried about the Oxford vaccine, but quite honestly, there doesn't seem much point in getting too involved in the pros and cons until a reasoned decision is made by the MHRA, and we have a lot more data.

In the end, will I even get a choice of vaccine?

If I get the Oxford one in March, and continue to be super careful, the better vaccines will hopefully be purchased in future years. Hopefully.

That's a very micro viewpoint, but data is made up of lots of micro behaviours, many of which simply aren't measured/measurable.
Data, for me, is calming.

Oak not you posting at me that’s for sure ;

@MarshaBradyo I’ll tell you why, because yes the majority of the U.K. is in denial of the exact situation we are in. Yes I’m likely venting here because there’s so much denial it’s unreal and as you know I’ve been here since March and watched it play out.

@InterfectoremVulpes it’s so frustrating how disjointed from reality most people are. This seems like a therapy thread from some of the posts 🤦🏽‍♀️

Huh - crossposted a lot.
Will retreat to lurkerdom, whilst hoping that this thread continues helpfully.

@Sunshinegirl82 you can anticipate surely when the data is released it’ll be more or less as I’ve described. (Not me btw pretty much everyone I follow)

In simple terms I object to a thread which is in denial of what an absolute hash the Oxford Trial has been. You cannot sensibly calm yourselves a data thread and not at least acknowledge that 🤦🏽‍♀️. Please!!

Oak do you have any confidence in the MHRA?

Bearing in mind they haven't actually approved it yet!