Do you think we will see worse numbers than April?

[hettyhooverdoover]

I remember early April, deaths from Covid peaked to nearly 1k a day for a couple weeks. Is it going to get as bad again do you think? There wasn't much testing then but I wonder how many cases they had before the peak...:-(

Worse

Unfortunately I think it will. If the new strain is more transmissible, the weather colder and people have been mixing closely with family, then yeah, the numbers will probably increase.

Yes, worse, which is terrifying when you think how much better we have got at treating it. I can't believe they will be able to avoid a full lock down and schools will need to close...

Yes, worse. Hopefully not in deaths/day. But lots more people very ill and struggling with after-effects.

Yes I do. I think schools should offer remote learning for those whose parents can support it.

If people really have been mixing at Christmas then it will be bad.

I am hoping that a large enough percentage of the population either decided not to take the risk or isolated before mixing. Most the people I know did this.

We can only live in hope.

I don’t know. The best sensible estimate for April is that we were at 100k cases a day. People have mixed but in much smaller numbers than they were in March when they were in bars/nightclubs/tube etc. And most people I know have had very modest christmases - lots of outdoor shivery distanced gift exchanges and just one family for dinner etc. and we’re in Tier 2 so fewer restrictions.

Were those cases people that died of covid or with covid - the numbers are skewed.

At the moment the numbers we have in hospitals is close to at the peak earlier in the year. On that basis, I’d say we are now almost comparable to them and I think it will get worse. The second wave is usually worse than the first.

I don't think so because the country hasn't been as open for the past 9 months. Admittedly I've been wrong about absolutely everything to do with the virus so far but I just think it is unlikely that we will have as many deaths as we did in April.

I think it's possible, but I hope only briefly so.

Because the death rate typically lags at least two weeks behind the increase in case number, and at least one week after hospital admission .

The huge increase in new infections has only been with us for a week or so, so I think we could see rises in the coming weeks, lasting until a fortnight or so after we get the rate of new infections down.

But I am still hoping that better treatments will indeed reduce the numbers somewhat

If they go ahead with schools opening in January as planned then in my opinion cases, hospitalisations and deaths will be much worse than April. Particularly with these new strains.

Once we reach the spring the warmer weather coupled with the vaccine roll out should hopefully put us in a much better position. Keeping schools closed over the rest of the winter could save many many lives.

I think actually despite Christmas mixing, kids have been home, offices closed, uni students at home, very few pubs and restaurants open and probably the majority chosing to only have family over if they've been able to isolate etc, cases might start to fall off again. We all know the score with masks, social distancing etc now and tho some ignore it I think enough comply to have an impact especially with 2 weeks off school plus a phased return plus vaccine rolling out.

covid19.healthdata.org/united-kingdom?view=total-deaths&tab=trend
This is interesting.

In the current situation, with free mixing, lack of mask wearing (we're way below the 95% level needed for impact) and general lackadaisical approach, plus the NHS being stretched more now than before, even with Lower corresponding rates of flu and norovirus (as a result of improving hygiene), an increasing death rate looks like the only logical conclusion, and that's before we add in these 2 new strains.

Out for a walk today, an awful lot of extra cars parked up. Quite a few taken advantage of covid’s apparent day off today.

Were those cases people that died of covid or with covid - the numbers are skewed.

Why must people trot this one out to suggest people aren’t dying of Covid.

What about those dying who haven’t been tested. You know they exist too.

I know but I think Ive seen that poster challenged on this before. (Or someone like them!) If some in their 30s/40s dies with covid (diabetic/asthmatic/obese etc) all things that may shorten life but still not expect to die at 30/40. Who cares about the semantics. People are ill and dying who shouldn't be yet. Diabetes/asthma etc are things you normally live with not expect to die with so yes definitely it would be due to catching covid.

We’re on over 500 already and cases are doubling within a week.

If nothing changes, that’s 1000 total next week, 2000 the week after, 4000, 8000 by the end of Jan. Then 16000, 32000, 64000, 128000 deaths a day by end of Feb.

So definitely yes unless something significant changes ASAP.

In short yes.
Feb half term probably the peak.

It’s difficult to know as we weren’t testing as much back in March/April so dint know how many had the virus back the . I too have been wrong about everything virus related so far though so who knows 🤷🏼‍♀️

I think it'll get worse. Hoping schools will close for a few weeks in January to get the numbers right down. My kids are at primary school and will miss it but it seems the only faintly possible way of containing it.
Thank god the vaccine is underway.

Well given that 2 days ago there were 744 deaths recordered, add in xmas mixing, pubs breaking the rules, people saying fuck it it’s xmas, yes i do think we will see numbers as bad, possibly worse than in April, especially as schools are open and round my way it seems to be rife in schools, so even if the kids don’t get sick, theyre most probably passing it to family members. If schools are kept open I don’t think they’ll get a handle on it like last summer, enough to bring numbers right down.

I think the only thing keeping death rate down now is that we know a lot more about how to treat CV than in the spring. We are also better set up to protect care homes, otherwise I expect we would already have reached the 1k mark

I don’t think it will get much worse

There’s the vaccine
Tier 4
Schools not returning straightaway

Maybe those are enough to keep numbers down.

I think schools should offer remote learning for those whose parents can support it

If school have to go in - and it is therefore considered safe to have staff in schools - why shouldn’t students?