Do you think we will see worse numbers than April?

[hettyhooverdoover]

I remember early April, deaths from Covid peaked to nearly 1k a day for a couple weeks. Is it going to get as bad again do you think? There wasn't much testing then but I wonder how many cases they had before the peak...:-(

I'm not sure I'm reassured by the lower numbers not taking up ventilator beds. Obviously it's good they don't need ventilation but this may well be due to the fact we've learnt that ventilation may make things worse and really needs to be a last resort. Bef it was used much earlier. I'd like to see a comparison of inpatient numbers as I think that would be more valid and give a clearer indication of the pressure on the nhs.

Yes, it will be worse. Numbers are already in a steep incline and instead of a nationwide lockdown (as we did in March) hundreds of thousands of families have just spent Christmas together and today people have gone shopping in the Boxing Day sales.

@JacobReesMogadishu

I'm not sure I'm reassured by the lower numbers not taking up ventilator beds. Obviously it's good they don't need ventilation but this may well be due to the fact we've learnt that ventilation may make things worse and really needs to be a last resort. Bef it was used much earlier. I'd like to see a comparison of inpatient numbers as I think that would be more valid and give a clearer indication of the pressure on the nhs.

@JacobReesMogadishu the gov website does show the data of hospital admissions and people in hospital - and can be at national level or broken down to hospital trust. Completely agree this is one of the more relevant stats to look at!

@hettyhooverdoover

It doesn't bare thinking about does it...I've been looking at the USA and their figures after thanksgiving were truly awful.

Very concerning

Worse, which makes one wonder the point of the measures, when the 1000 deaths a day willl have come about with non NHS/economy/education destroying measures. So we now have all this restriction on people’s lives to have more deaths. Really seems worth it.

@MadameBlobby

Worse, which makes one wonder the point of the measures, when the 1000 deaths a day willl have come about with non NHS/economy/education destroying measures. So we now have all this restriction on people’s lives to have more deaths. Really seems worth it.

The point was to try to prevent the 1000 deaths a day, how many do you think we would have if there were no restrictions?

We will see higher case numbers but only as testing has improved and there is the new variant as well.

Hoping we don't see higher death rates.

Yes I think so, sadly. I hope the schools don't open in January!'

So when looking at inpatient numbers we’re pretty much matching April figures, and climbing.

@Crunchymum

We will see higher case numbers but only as testing has improved and there is the new variant as well.

Hoping we don't see higher death rates.

This is why I think the hospital inpatient data is the important one to watch.

@MadameBlobby

Worse, which makes one wonder the point of the measures, when the 1000 deaths a day willl have come about with non NHS/economy/education destroying measures. So we now have all this restriction on people’s lives to have more deaths. Really seems worth it.

Well it would be even worse. But yes if you are going to do something do it properly

We have a good chance of seeing lower death figures, due to improved treatments now. But that depends on hospitals not being overwhelmed.

Do i think we will see worse figures than April?

Yes, I do.

I run Covid Messenger ( www.covidmessenger.com ). I monitor and analyse the data every day. I have just had 2 days off for Xmas Eve and Xmas Day and have just poured over the latest govt data release for England (Scot, Wales and N. Irl are not reporting fully over the Xmas period).

I am stunned by how quickly things have moved in 2 days. Look at the table of cases in each council on www.covidmessenger.com. Click in to any council and scroll down to see the 20 worst affected councils in England. A few days ago this was dominated by Kent councils where cases were astonishingly high

Cases are still rising across Kent, and yet cases are increasing so quickly elsewhere that Kent councils have been pushed out of the top 20.

And this is during a period when schools are out.

Unless they can make astonishingly smart and strategic decisions on who to vaccinate (and roll it out fast- not sure it is even logistically possible), I cannot see any way to avoid the death toll we had last Spring.

Our cases are racing up.

Our deaths are below normal range.

If you have higher deaths what are your cases like? And how long have they been high

So cases are up on a week ago but death rates are 50% of last Saturday. I am clinging to the hope that the new variant is less dangerous but they just don’t want to admit it to the public yet

I'm on Teesside and, partly because we locked down earlier relative to our case load back in March, the death rates in my area have already begun to exceed that in the first wave. Hopefully that will drop soon because the cases/100k has dropped significantly since the tier 3 restrictions kicked in following the second lockdown but now they are creeping up again. Who knows?

@Ninbus

So cases are up on a week ago but death rates are 50% of last Saturday. I am clinging to the hope that the new variant is less dangerous but they just don’t want to admit it to the public yet

I think it's because we are seeing the bedded in deaths from case numbers towards the end of the last lockdown...

@Missfelipe

I think judging by how empty our street has been the last couple of days that there is an awful lot of mixing going on which is concerning. Almost non one is home. The usual crowd who post anything and everything about their Christmas Day on social media are suspiciously quiet as well. For us personally, we have some family who have travelled from all ends of the UK for Christmas (not at our home I should say!) despite a ban on overnight stays, all work in jobs where they have contact with the public, some in healthcare settings...so yes, unfortunately I think we are all in for a shock in a few weeks time ☹️

Ooh that's worrying

"
Unless something happens to shorten the doubling time, that’s where we are heading. That’s scary but not scaremongering.".
Surely we want to lengthen the doubling timenot shorten it!

@Lumene

We’re on over 500 already and cases are doubling within a week.

If nothing changes, that’s 1000 total next week, 2000 the week after, 4000, 8000 by the end of Jan. Then 16000, 32000, 64000, 128000 deaths a day by end of Feb.

So definitely yes unless something significant changes ASAP.

Is that you Mr neil ferguson?

[quote Lumene]@WouldBeGood I don’t have a ‘methodology’. It’s just basic maths. With exponential growth, the numbers go up frighteningly quickly.

Unless something happens to shorten the doubling time, that’s where we are heading. That’s scary but not scaremongering.[/quote]
Which would have 2 million deaths a day by the end of March and 16 million by the end of April which pretty much wipes out the entire population of the world!

But it isnt going to work like that - it might with cases (and I suspect without vaccination and/or further intervention we might reach a point of most people having it by then sadly.

Deaths I think will (sadly) reach a peak of around 1000-2000 a day and we will probably see that throughout January before it drops. This will be worse than April sadly

Yes.

The peak was 1445 deaths on April 8th.

I hope we won't replicate that because we're better at treating covid now, and I hope the government will take effective action with days.

They've let the virus run pretty hot all autumn with 3000 deaths a week for ages. With the too late second lockdown, farcical tier system, the useless pantomime that is test and "trace", plus Christmas, and the new variant those covid chickens are about to come home to roost

With hospital admissions at April levels deaths must be in a similar ballpark within the next few weeks.

And there's bugger all we can do about it now. It's the next few weeks after that we have the power to affect.

P.S. No one's vaccinated yet. The second doses should begin on the 29th. If we have any vaccine.

@Lumenenits scaremongering to make out that everyone will die from Covid, which is the logic of your numbers