Do you think we will see worse numbers than April?

[hettyhooverdoover]

I remember early April, deaths from Covid peaked to nearly 1k a day for a couple weeks. Is it going to get as bad again do you think? There wasn't much testing then but I wonder how many cases they had before the peak...:-(

@Isthatitnow

I think schools should offer remote learning for those whose parents can support it

If school have to go in - and it is therefore considered safe to have staff in schools - why shouldn’t students?

Is this a serious question?

@Lumene by your reckoning everyone will be dead of Covid shortly.

I think your methodology is flawed.

Scaremongering is really unhelpful

Hopefully we won’t reach the same number of deaths a day although the cold weather is not in our favour. Treatments are better than they were in April. My main hope is that the Oxford vaccine comes really soon and there is a massive national vaccination drive.

Yes, this new strain is spreading like wildfire. While it might not be more deadly, the more people who have it means hospital admissions go up proportionately.

Unless they close schools and pull their finger out their arse with the vaccinations I think it will be a lot worse. I think Sage have said they need to increase daily vaccination 4x in order not to have worse numbers than the first peak.

No I don’t. We also know better how to treat it. We have quickly put in restrictions.

People seem to enjoy the chat of doom.

If schools don’t return it will be a crying shame for kids though. The long term effects of this are the worst thing we are facing IMHO

A lot depends on vaccines being approved and deployed ASAP.

The ones believes 1 in 85 currently have the virus and as many as 1 in 50 in London. Yes, I think it could get as bad as last March.

@tobee

A lot depends on vaccines being approved and deployed ASAP.

And deployed with no or few hitches.

We really need to get the vaccines out to the most vulnerable. That would make a huge difference. If we could immunise the most elderly 2m people, that alone could reduce the mortality rates by up to 40%, that would make a huge difference.

I really don’t understand why they’re not putting the army in charge of the vaccination roll out, logistics is their thing.

Instead it’s all a bit disjointed, ccgs doing some, individual GP surgeries doing others, each surgery when it’s a surgery doing it having to work out where to do it, when to do it, trying to recruit staff, sort out patient lists, etc.

Were those cases people that died of covid or with covid - the numbers are skewed.

I really hate reading this. It is like once you have a pre existing medical condition you no longer matter. Let's face it most people pick up at least one medical condition once they hit their 50s. These medical conditions could be mild and non life threatening but once you pick up one and you catch COVID than of course people minimise and blame the well controlled asthma or auto immune condition etc etc.
In terms of OP I hope they won't get as bad but with so many people minimising the issue compliance is at an all time low party of course because people are fed up and our Govt is incompetent I am not hopeful.

I predict it will be worse. Even though treatment is better. Dm local hospital stopped planned operations. Nhs needs more funding and the full nursing bursary should be reinstated, at least temporary.

I would have fined test and trace for their woeful performance. But I’m not the prime minister.

If school have to go in - and it is therefore considered safe to have staff in schools - why shouldn’t students

Let's face it you would have to live under a rock to believe schools are safe. Clearly they are not due to the large bubbles. However they gave been prioritised for the benefits they bring fir the children and to a lesser degree the parents.
Allowing remote learning for those who can will naturally reduce the risk as less numbers in school. It would also offer additional protection foe ECV or CV families and teaching staff.

@Frouby

I think actually despite Christmas mixing, kids have been home, offices closed, uni students at home, very few pubs and restaurants open and probably the majority chosing to only have family over if they've been able to isolate etc, cases might start to fall off again. We all know the score with masks, social distancing etc now and tho some ignore it I think enough comply to have an impact especially with 2 weeks off school plus a phased return plus vaccine rolling out.

I’d like to think that was the case but so many won’t wear masks, use them around their necks, aren’t SD etc. Plus the mount of cars I’ve seen suggests people are meeting indoors as they can’t go out.

Plenty of posts on here where people are are ignoring the rules and hosting play dates, seeng friends and family, dating, letting teens out to socialise so whilst some are complying many aren’t so cases will continue to rise.

I think we will see an increase over the next few weeks, I hope it won't be as bad as April for deaths but think we will hit the same or higher cases, based on the estimates of where we were in April as obviously we don't have actual case numbers for then because of testing.

I hate this government for a multitude of reasons, but am always confused about what people are expecting when they say that the government needs to do better with the vaccination programme.

• vaccines have been created and approved at a record rate
• the government have ordered as much stock as they can
• as soon as the stock has been made available it's been deployed and issued out
• a vaccination programme has been created with new hubs, training and priority groups.

What more does anyone think the government could do right now that they haven't? They can't give what they don't have and can't get supplies of something that hasn't been approved or manufactured.

I think if they keep schools closed, lock us down quickly and if people heeded the warnings and cut Christmas right down and if they managed to roll out vaccines quickly then there's still a chance we can peak at a slightly lower level of deaths than April. That's a lot of ifs though and I'm not sure the current govt are capable of being that decisive.....we'll soon see!

I they won't as have far greater knowledge how to treat covid

Numbers are already high, so sadly worse with the new variants. On top of that household mixing yesterday, alongside many seeing more people this week outside (there's still a small risk), Xmas and sales shopping. Also, if more younger people are catching it, it's go to be a nightmare when schools go back with no ppe for staff/students.

I think judging by how empty our street has been the last couple of days that there is an awful lot of mixing going on which is concerning. Almost non one is home. The usual crowd who post anything and everything about their Christmas Day on social media are suspiciously quiet as well. For us personally, we have some family who have travelled from all ends of the UK for Christmas (not at our home I should say!) despite a ban on overnight stays, all work in jobs where they have contact with the public, some in healthcare settings...so yes, unfortunately I think we are all in for a shock in a few weeks time ☹️

In April the ratio was 1 in 30 so as they pulled Xmas away at last min we just possibly will have prevented that.

We have better treatments

Half a million over 80 already vaccinated

It's mainly younger people testing positive at the moment

I'm in tier 4 There is no sale shopping and nearly everyone I know has scaled down Xmas plans since the announcement or they were planning a small one already. I think in hindsight crap as it was it was the right thing to cancel the 5 days binge.

I think January and February will be bad. i think potentially worse that April, yes, because of the Christmas mixing. There has been some mixing allowed in some areas (for example, Brighton could mix on Christmas days but tier 4 today, which is a bit ridiculous) and I assume there has been some mixing as well in tier 4, even if not allowed.
I think it will get better in March, after the Christmas mixing and more people vaccinated.

Half a million over 80 already vaccinated

That's great. I must have missed the reporting on the split between the elderly and health care workers - half a million is a relief.

I think even in our full lockdown in summer the r number never got below 0.7. So if this variant increases r by 0.4 to 0.9. Then regardless what they do we will have exponential growth. This must be why sage have said they need to increase vaccination rates to head off huge number of deaths. I think with this new strain we cannot expect case numbers to fall even with schools closed they will grow as some work places and supermarkets etc cannot shut and the virus will spread there