[quote TheSunIsStillShining]@PrincessNutNuts
Rishi is an idiot.
Vaccines have an effect on how sever the virus will be within the host (from no symptoms to very mild). It does jack about transmission as far as we know now.
What that idiot is spouting is basically vaccinate those who are most likely to be seriously ill/die and let the rest of the population acquire natural herd immunity. This will lull the population into a false sense of
normalcy. People will stop SD and masks and any precautions.
And this has been proven to be the wrong approach over and over again. And yet they still do it but more subtly this time.
But it doesn't work like that. Long covid and hospitalization potentially effects all ages.
We also don't know how long the vaccine is boosting our immune system. We don't know if we will have enough doses for a potential next year mass vaccination. We don't know how those getting the Pfizer now will react to subsequent AZ vaccine. We don't really know how effective
There are so many unknowns that at this point we should be playing it safe and not playing russian roulette.
So far Rishi's gun was loaded and we are paying the price of his stupidity.[/quote]
You know, respectfully, I think you're wrong about him being an idiot in this instance. I absolutely agree herd immunity as you're thinking of it is the wrong strategy in that ideally you want to be vaccinating everyone but life's messier than that.
15 million of the most vulnerable are due to get vaccinated by Jan/Feb under this government's plan. They are supposed to be targeting the most vulnerable strategically so as to minimise deaths as far as possible. That strategy is aiming to cut 80-99% of deaths, I keep reading, and reduce the strain on the hospitals. Drastically lower deaths will minimise fear considerably leading naturally to lower compliance with social distancing, as you say.
But you have nearly 12 million children who aren't going to be vaccinated and mostly aren't seriously affected by the virus.
By the spring, several million people also will have had the virus already - how many exactly, I don't know but this new strain is so contagious, we can comfortably say several million. The vast majority of them will thus have also a degree of immunity as a result even if it's not long term (but it could be c.17 years). They need to be vaccinated, ideally, but not urgently.
All in all, that adds up to a significant reduction in the damage this virus can do to us as a society. I seriously don't believe large numbers of people would want to sit in/social distance beyond that on the basis they might get Long Covid or might feel pretty unwell when they do pick it up. No it's not ideal but people are chomping at the bit to be set free even now. You can't argue with the fact many will want to make their own risk assessments and get on with life.
And I honestly think we have enough data to say that most people with Long Covid do pick up by about the 12 week mark - it's a v small minority who will have bigger problems long term. No, that's not certain and those people matter too, it's just I very much doubt it's going to be a big issue for many. Certainly it's not something to shut society down for.
We have to be realistic. This virus is NOT a threat to most beyond making some feel really rotten. People are absolutely desperate to get on with life. I really can't see deaths falling hugely and large numbers of people under 60 sitting at home voluntarily and keeping apart on the basis they aren't vaccinated and they are at risk of Long Covid.
Rishi isn't stupid, on that basis. He knows we need people out and about working and living to prop the economy up. It would cause greater harm to shut everyone away and damage the economy more past a certain point. Sorry, but that's reality.