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Original poster

Do you think we will see worse numbers than April?

165 replies

hettyhooverdoover · 25/12/2020 22:13

I remember early April, deaths from Covid peaked to nearly 1k a day for a couple weeks. Is it going to get as bad again do you think? There wasn't much testing then but I wonder how many cases they had before the peak...:-(

OP posts:
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5
IndecentFeminist · 27/12/2020 10:35

Viruses can't achieve exponential growth indefinitely. Herd immunity will hit first and lack of suitable hosts will slow it. We are not going to see 128,000 deaths per day 😂🤦‍♀️

WouldBeGood · 27/12/2020 12:20

It’s this kind of bollocks being spouted that scares the shit out of people.

TheDrsDocMartens · 27/12/2020 12:25

S Wales NHS put a call out for ICU trained staff as they’re struggling now.

PrincessNutNuts · 27/12/2020 12:41

We don't know how long the deaths would keep doubling for.

Almost 30,000 people died in April but the spread was was stopped by lockdown, so it was fewer in May.

What if it hadn't been? Would 60,000 people have died in May if we hadn't locked down?

Aren't there about 20 million people who are Extremely Clinically Vulnerable to the coronavirus?

We've been "Protecting the Vulnerable" since March but the deaths kept happening don't they?

I mean, who in March thought 30,000 people would die in April?

www.google.co.uk/amp/s/amp.theguardian.com/world/2020/jun/19/over-1000-deaths-day-uk-ministers-accused-downplaying-covid-19-peak

IndecentFeminist · 27/12/2020 13:37

🤦‍♀️

FourTeaFallOut · 27/12/2020 13:41

Aren't there about 20 million people who are Extremely Clinically Vulnerable to the coronavirus?

2.5 million in the UK.

MarshaBradyo · 27/12/2020 13:43

@FourTeaFallOut

Aren't there about 20 million people who are Extremely Clinically Vulnerable to the coronavirus?

2.5 million in the UK.

Where did 20m come from? A long way off

Yes it’s this 2.5m

midgebabe · 27/12/2020 13:43

Think it been calculated that there are 25 to 30 million vulnerable or older than average people need to be vaccinated to protect the nhs /enable society to go back to normal

FourTeaFallOut · 27/12/2020 13:45

20 million sounds about right to cover phase 1 of the vaccine roll out.

bumbleymummy · 27/12/2020 13:47

No. I think there will be fewer hospitalisations and deaths.

TheAdventuresoftheWishingChair · 27/12/2020 13:55

128,000 potential deaths a day is absolute rubbish. That's where websites like this are not great - you will get someone very vulnerable reading that and panicking. It's not even the smallest possibility that will happen, if anyone is worrying.

I do think deaths are going to rise and potentially pretty considerably sadly. I am very much laying low now and bracing myself. But I am very much focusing on the fact we will come out the other side of that - there is lots of hope with new treatments still being trialled, with spring around the corner and with the vaccines. We will be ok, we just have to get through this bad patch.

PrincessNutNuts · 27/12/2020 14:00

@FourTeaFallOut

Aren't there about 20 million people who are Extremely Clinically Vulnerable to the coronavirus?

2.5 million in the UK.

2.5 million in the fourth group to get the virus, yes, but I meant all the groups. I can't remember how many I total but it's about 10 million in the first 2 groups isn't it?
PrincessNutNuts · 27/12/2020 14:00

4th group to get the vaccine! Blush

FourTeaFallOut · 27/12/2020 14:03

Hold on, I think I might have a link with that kind of info...

www.newstatesman.com/science-tech/coronavirus/2020/12/how-covid-19-vaccines-could-rapidly-reduce-uk-s-death-rate

So the above is just a numbers game based on the age categories and doesn't include the front line staff nor the cev not included in the top age tiers.

PrincessNutNuts · 27/12/2020 14:12

@FourTeaFallOut

Hold on, I think I might have a link with that kind of info...

www.newstatesman.com/science-tech/coronavirus/2020/12/how-covid-19-vaccines-could-rapidly-reduce-uk-s-death-rate

So the above is just a numbers game based on the age categories and doesn't include the front line staff nor the cev not included in the top age tiers.

That's very interesting. Thank you. I guess that's why Rishi Sunak is in all the papers saying things will be better by the end of February.
TheSunIsStillShining · 27/12/2020 14:30

@PrincessNutNuts
Rishi is an idiot.
Vaccines have an effect on how sever the virus will be within the host (from no symptoms to very mild). It does jack about transmission as far as we know now.
What that idiot is spouting is basically vaccinate those who are most likely to be seriously ill/die and let the rest of the population acquire natural herd immunity. This will lull the population into a false sense of
normalcy. People will stop SD and masks and any precautions.
And this has been proven to be the wrong approach over and over again. And yet they still do it but more subtly this time.
But it doesn't work like that. Long covid and hospitalization potentially effects all ages.
We also don't know how long the vaccine is boosting our immune system. We don't know if we will have enough doses for a potential next year mass vaccination. We don't know how those getting the Pfizer now will react to subsequent AZ vaccine. We don't really know how effective
There are so many unknowns that at this point we should be playing it safe and not playing russian roulette.
So far Rishi's gun was loaded and we are paying the price of his stupidity.

PrincessNutNuts · 27/12/2020 14:36

I was wondering about all that @TheSunIsStillShining

PrincessNutNuts · 27/12/2020 14:39

The Telegraph has this. I must admit I thought the Clinically Vulnerable were in with the over 70s?

www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/12/27/pfizer-vaccine-priority-list-who-first-covid-when/amp/

Do you think we will see worse numbers than April?
FourTeaFallOut · 27/12/2020 14:48

The extremely clinically vulnerable who aren't children and who aren't already immunised due to age are in group 4, and who are not excluded because of issues around immunity, but I think that nobody has any idea about how many of us there are after all those caveats. Grin

Kazzyhoward · 27/12/2020 14:59

[quote TheSunIsStillShining]@PrincessNutNuts
Rishi is an idiot.
Vaccines have an effect on how sever the virus will be within the host (from no symptoms to very mild). It does jack about transmission as far as we know now.
What that idiot is spouting is basically vaccinate those who are most likely to be seriously ill/die and let the rest of the population acquire natural herd immunity. This will lull the population into a false sense of
normalcy. People will stop SD and masks and any precautions.
And this has been proven to be the wrong approach over and over again. And yet they still do it but more subtly this time.
But it doesn't work like that. Long covid and hospitalization potentially effects all ages.
We also don't know how long the vaccine is boosting our immune system. We don't know if we will have enough doses for a potential next year mass vaccination. We don't know how those getting the Pfizer now will react to subsequent AZ vaccine. We don't really know how effective
There are so many unknowns that at this point we should be playing it safe and not playing russian roulette.
So far Rishi's gun was loaded and we are paying the price of his stupidity.[/quote]
I agree - Rishi is an idiot. He's the fool who came up with the "eat out to help out" stupidity in August. And the reduced VAT rate on hospitality/accommodation. Yes, brilliant ideas - encourage people to go out and spread covid!

He's also the fool who has excluded nearly 3 million self employed from covid support by not understanding self employment and bringing in pretty stupid rules as to who qualifies and who doesn't. He created a two-tier society of self employed - the haves and the havn't (excluded). It's possible (and likely) that 3 people doing exactly the same work get different grants - one gets nothing, one gets a shed load of cash whether they're still working or not, and a third gets a pittance - what kind of lunatic would preside over that kind of system? Not only did he think it up, 10 months on, he refuses to listen to reason and is in denial about the arbitrary stupidity of the rules.

PrincessNutNuts · 27/12/2020 14:59

@FourTeaFallOut

The extremely clinically vulnerable who aren't children and who aren't already immunised due to age are in group 4, and who are not excluded because of issues around immunity, but I think that nobody has any idea about how many of us there are after all those caveats. Grin
Grin
Kazzyhoward · 27/12/2020 15:00

[quote PrincessNutNuts]The Telegraph has this. I must admit I thought the Clinically Vulnerable were in with the over 70s?

www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/12/27/pfizer-vaccine-priority-list-who-first-covid-when/amp/[/quote]
That doesn't say where the ECV stand at all.

PrincessNutNuts · 27/12/2020 15:04

I know @Kazzyhoward. I had to go back to the gov.U.K. Site and check I hasn't imagined them being in group 4 or missed a change! Shock

TheSunIsStillShining · 27/12/2020 15:16

[quote PrincessNutNuts]The Telegraph has this. I must admit I thought the Clinically Vulnerable were in with the over 70s?

www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/12/27/pfizer-vaccine-priority-list-who-first-covid-when/amp/[/quote]
Nope. I have a compromised immune system. A flu gets me out of commission for 2 months. I'm 45 and have had this condition since I was 23.
My son has a 50% chance of developing the same issue in his early 20s.
I am not willing to risk adding to that % number.