London School of Hygiene & Medicine states that all schools need to be closed

[SoscaredforJan]

Pre-print of the new B.1.1.7 lineage published 23rd Dec 2020.

“Our estimates suggest that control measures of a similar stringency to the national lockdown implemented in England in November 2020 are unlikely to reduce the effective reproduction number Rt to less than 1, unless primary schools, secondary schools, and universities are also closed.

We project that large resurgences of the virus are likely to occur following easing of control measures.

It may be necessary to greatly accelerate vaccine roll-out to have an appreciable impact in suppressing the resulting disease burden.”

cmmid.github.io/topics/covid19/uk-novel-variant.html

I agree the gov needs MUCH stronger messaging about WFH. They ahve been very vague about that since October. I think again that is about them pleasing some influential business lobbies who want commuters out and about and also a culture of presenteeism.

They could buy every child in the country a top of the range Mac plus mobile dongle for what they are wasting on Brexit and the upcoming Festival of Brexit🤮

The message needs to be that schools need to 'move online or to provision alternative to the classroom' not they should be 'closed'.

Schools weren't completely closed in the spring.

And absolutely yes to whoever suggested that this was so obviously going to happen in the winter and how the govt pissed away the planning time they had in the summer.

If you read the paper, they are modelling a scenario where children are as infectious as adults to the new variant. This might be true, or it might not be true, or it might be partly true. But we don’t actually know. They’re not saying it is - they’re saying “if it is, then this is what we think the consequences are.”

They could equally ahve modelled a scenario where they are more infectious golden. I believe they mention this.

TheHoneyBadger completely agree with your proposals. From first hand experience as both a teacher and a parent, a lot of anxiety is driven by the uncertainty and unpredictability of when and if isolation is going to land on students. A few days before the end of term, my classroom door opened and as soon as the students saw the Head of Year with her sheet of paper and heard her read out the names of those who needed to leave immediately, I saw first hand the relief on the faces if those whose names weren't read out.

Teenagers are much more resilient than we give them credit for, but it would be made so much easier if they knew that they would have certain days in school and at home completing their learning. Rota would definitely facilitate this rather than the ad hoc education that is happening at the moment.

The ONS data would suggest that the scenario that children are as or more infectious as adults with the new variant needs to be taken as true unless it is proved otherwise.

Cases amongst children are sky rocketing. Unless we can rule out schools being super-spreader environments (we can't, they are) it would be madness to even consider re-opening schools in the way they were before Christmas.

I am so fed up of people insisting that we can't possibly provide good online education, at least at secondary level.
We can. Many of us did it during the first lockdown. My pupils actually got ahead because they didn't have anything else to do!
Primaries I accept are trickier and need parental supervision, and of course in secondaries vulnerable/SEN pupils would need to be able to go in, science experiments etc - but this could be done actually safely if most learning was online like we did in June.
All it needs is for the government to give us some warning for planning and to actually provide the tech for low income families like they promised months ago.

Part-time rotas are needed. Some school will be better than no school!

@Remmy123

Kids are more affected if they have to stay home away from schol / friends etc then occasional 10 days of isolation.

Let's face it, kids do not learn as much as they would in a classroom being online!!

Kids don’t learn when they isolate for 10 days at a time and return to a cover teacher who hasn’t the foggiest about the subject they are covering. You do realise that schools that have a lot of cases aren’t really teaching anymore, they are just baby sitting? Just so you get an idea of what it’s like for us in areas where infections are high: my primary kids have isolated on 4 occasions now since September. When they are present in school their teacher isn’t. We have had a partial closure at the secondary school and kids that have to attend because they are key worker kids have been doing posters and PE all day. In terms of staffing. The primary isn’t that bad, but the secondary has many teachers off isolating (30+ back in October) and many off long term “stress” or genuinely ill and recovering.

Lots of people will need to make sacrifices for the greater good of our country.

This is such bollocks. People have been doing this for 9 bloody months already! Since when is it our responsibility let alone our kids to shore up an NHS that is not fit for purpose.

I’m actually not opposed to school going online or part time but it should be for the shortest period possible. But I am lucky as I have 2 kids both in secondary with their own IT and I wfh.

Get the vaccine rolled out ASAP and make it mandatory except for medical reasons. To fuck with people wanking on about microchips, conspiracies, Bill Gates and their bodily autonomy.

@SchrodingersUnicorn

Not all kids managed well with online education.

Not all schools provided good online learning.

So to say that all kids can get a good education online is untrue.

You can't compare with the last lockdowns home learning. The government suspended the curriculum. This time all schools are ready to deliver proper online learning. All teaching staff have had training and are ready.

I'd really love to know how my child will get a good online education when he is 4 years old and me and his dad both work ft. I can work from home but I cannot switch off to teach him because I have an actual job to do. There is no way that he will get am equivalent education of that he would get in a classroom.

Nevertheless, the increase in transmissibility is likely to lead to a large increase in incidence, with COVID-19 hospitalisations and deaths projected to reach higher levels in 2021 than were observed in 2020, even if regional tiered restrictions implemented before 19 December are maintained. Our estimates suggest that control measures of a similar stringency to the national lockdown implemented in England in November 2020 are unlikely to reduce the effective reproduction number Rt to less than 1, unless primary schools, secondary schools, and universities are also closed. We project that large resurgences of the virus are likely to occur following easing of control measures. It may be necessary to greatly accelerate vaccine roll-out to have an appreciable impact in suppressing the resulting disease burden

@TrustTheGeneGenie

I'd really love to know how my child will get a good online education when he is 4 years old and me and his dad both work ft. I can work from home but I cannot switch off to teach him because I have an actual job to do. There is no way that he will get am equivalent education of that he would get in a classroom.

To be fair at 4 years old it really won’t matter if he misses education for a couple of months. It’s much more worrying for the older kids but if schools need to close then that’s what has to happen.

Field - but not many dc actually do well in a classroom and many of our more fragile, vulnerable students did really well under lock down, without the anxieties of the classroom.

Its not a black and white situation and on line can work very well where there is a will to do it.

but not many dc actually do well in a classroom

Rubbish.

Lots of children are struggling with mental health by being in a school and constantly isolating, the worry for their parents and carers, the GCSE unknown worry, Sick teachers in hospital. Some struggle with school pre pandemic. Then there's the mental health of the staff which is important as they have to run the school.

This. The mental health line is used to try and browbeat people into submission and it's clear those using it have no idea of the stress repeated isolations cause, and the uncertainty of not knowing when it will happen again.

During isolation you CANNOT LEAVE YOUR HOUSE. Many, many children in this country have essentially been locked in their houses for 8 weeks or more. It's worse than the school being closed when you can go out for exercise.

My DD said it is 'far far worse than lockdown' when we could at least get out and plan our lives. And we've hardly had to isolate at all compared to many.

Maybs it is time we actually looked at the exam system with critical eyes and made proper changes.

And if unis/schools/childcare need to close because it’s the only way to control this until the vaccine numbers go up, then so be it. So before someone piles on to my next paragraph with “well people DYING is WORSE!”, I’m not saying that.

But - people do tend to talk about working parents having to ‘make sacrifices’ like the only impact is to us and our bank balances. But a lot of the services that the country needs are provided by working parents too. Who do you think provides furlough, universal credit, business support? I did lots of last lockdown trying to do complicated things about managing hospital admissions with a baby on my lap. If everyone in my position this time round says that we can’t cope and hand in our notices, it’ll not just be us who that impacts.

To be fair at 4 years old it really won’t matter if he misses education for a couple of months. It’s much more worrying for the older kids but if schools need to close then that’s what has to happen

Ah ok. My child doesn't matter. I see. I'll just watch all his reading and counting skills slowly fade away over the next 6 month's and well start again a year late. Seems like a brilliant idea.

@PandemicPavolova

Field - but not many dc actually do well in a classroom and many of our more fragile, vulnerable students did really well under lock down, without the anxieties of the classroom.

Its not a black and white situation and on line can work very well where there is a will to do it.

Kids who don't do well in a classroom always have the option of homeschooling. Kids who struggle at home have no plan b if schools are closed again do they?

Ok a reception teacher may be along to correct me but....

A 4yo doesn't need full time remote education. An hour or so a day in small bursts (which doesn't have to be between 9 and 3) of counting buttons, sounding out words, reading together, some drawing, some using scissors etc is surely fine? The vast majority of people surely don't need full time input for this from professionals?

I'm not belittling the work of reception teachers but no one is asking you to teach your children rocket science just to keep up reading, sounding out words, playing games like I spy with my little eye something beginning with puh... Some colouring in to help with the development of fine motor skills etc. Just the normal parenting you surely do with young children anyway? Some baking at the weekend using scales and introducing the concept of measuring and some units. Did people really want full time education remotely for 4yo???

So very sick of the ‘well I don’t care who dies my child is entitled to an education’

No one absolutely no one denies in normal circumstances a child needs an education.

Wake up to what we’re in and stop being so bloody selfish and single minded, life is before everything and people shouldn’t die because you think education comes before their lives.