London School of Hygiene & Medicine states that all schools need to be closed

[SoscaredforJan]

Pre-print of the new B.1.1.7 lineage published 23rd Dec 2020.

“Our estimates suggest that control measures of a similar stringency to the national lockdown implemented in England in November 2020 are unlikely to reduce the effective reproduction number Rt to less than 1, unless primary schools, secondary schools, and universities are also closed.

We project that large resurgences of the virus are likely to occur following easing of control measures.

It may be necessary to greatly accelerate vaccine roll-out to have an appreciable impact in suppressing the resulting disease burden.”

cmmid.github.io/topics/covid19/uk-novel-variant.html

I'm not patting myself on the back.

I'm correcting you from spreading an incorrect conclusion from a vital piece of new research.

@DfEisashambles

Are people honestly moaning about their children not having play time with friends for a month or so TO SAVELIVES????

A) it's not just play time with friends. B) it's not going to be just a month just as it wasn't last time. C) will it save lives or will it just delay deaths since that is in fact what lockdowns are designed to do?

It kind of is tough shit for all of us in many ways. It's not an ideal world right now. We have hundreds of people a day dying again from a novel virus. Business' have had to close their doors. People aren't seeing their families. The economy is tanking etc! Unfortunately 4 yos might not get the socialisation they normally would but in the grand scales of things it IS a minor issue and a temporary one.

No one is saying small children don't matter or education doesn't matter just that everything has to change and everyone has to do the best they can in the changed circumstances. No one gets a free pass where it won't effect them in some way.

Surely everyone understands that? Can people really be so self interested that they can't bear the idea of anything effecting them and being less than the ideal way they would like it?

@Noellodee

I'm not patting myself on the back.

I'm correcting you from spreading an incorrect conclusion from a vital piece of new research.

I did not ‘spread an incorrect conclusion’. I pointed out a modelling assumption. I didn’t say that said modelling assumption was incorrect.

But please continue to argue with whatever it is the version of me in your head to be saying, I’m sure she’s looking very ashamed of herself right now.

@TrustTheGeneGenie not sure if you’ve heard there’s a vaccine on the horizon?

We are in the worst part. DC can be with their families or parents for a while to contain it and yes, save many lives. Honestly, it is very simple if people were willing to stop whinging for the greater good.

Yes it’s shit, yes it’s sad, no I don’t like it and yes I’ll suffer too but you have to see the bigger picture here and get a fucking grip.

No one gets a free pass where it won't effect them in some way

Really? Pretty sure some people are totally happy in lockdown because they don't have kids or unstable jobs or whatever else.

Let's pretend everyone's making massive sacrifice if that makes you feel better.

Are people really so self interested that they expect us to care more about their well-being than that of our own fucking children? It seems they are. Well newsflash, like most parents, my child is more important to me than anyone else on the world. That isn't new and it's not unusual so stop fucking trying to make it something shameful.

Proper forward thinking back in the summer

Those of us working in universities have been planning since March 16, when it was clear that we'd have to do something (a week before national lockdown). And we haven't stopped planning scenarios A, B, C, on to Z.

Pity the government doesn't seem bothered by anything except popularity ratings.

But we all know Michael Gove doesn't believe in experts, anyway, does he?

@bendmeoverbackwards

Your sick of it! Imagine how sick I feel constantly hearing only problems with going on line when my own setting, which has a high % fsm, children with sen and sn. Did an audit.... Before lock down to see who had a device to listen or see or type on. As most dc have at least smart phones, then they could follow lessons, we also did further tech audit the proactively (not wait for gov) ask around our staff community and parents to see if anyone had older tech they could give in.

Then we had short training on Google and went on line in 2 days.

We followed the time table as per normal. Students who didn't log on were chased with ten mins then their dp.

It was business as usual. The students with higher needs, vulnerabilities were kept monitored, occupied and busy, moving forward with their education.

If someone didn't turn up and it was an on going issue, welfare were alerted. We could also see the students, gage their moods etc as time went on.

My own dc school however did none of that, still no audit done, lots of excuses and no work done.
My dd was left bereft.

I am trying my hardest to get moved for the rest of her education into a school that went on line within 2 day of lock down.

[quote DfEisashambles]@TrustTheGeneGenie not sure if you’ve heard there’s a vaccine on the horizon?

We are in the worst part. DC can be with their families or parents for a while to contain it and yes, save many lives. Honestly, it is very simple if people were willing to stop whinging for the greater good.

Yes it’s shit, yes it’s sad, no I don’t like it and yes I’ll suffer too but you have to see the bigger picture here and get a fucking grip.[/quote]
They're rolling it out and still saying we won't have normal until 2022. Excuse me if I am not overjoyed.

Peter Horby comes along and demands schools close.
www.icnarc.org/DataServices/Attachments/Download/8ddf0460-5f41-eb11-912c-00505601089b
Yet ICU figures do not and have never empirically represented what he amongst the voice of experts has been predicting.

Critically vulnerable figures for parity:
www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronavirusandshieldingofclinicallyextremelyvulnerablepeopleinengland/9julyto16july2020
'In England, 2.2 million people were identified as being clinically extremely vulnerable (CEV) to severe impact from the coronavirus.'
'An estimated 328,000 CEV people (15%) live in a household with children aged under 16 years; 3%.'
'Approximately three-quarters (74%, 1,645,000) of clinically extremely vulnerable (CEV) people live with other people.'

However the economic impact is empirically well documented:
cdn.obr.uk/CCS1020397650-001_OBR-November2020-EFO-v2-Web-accessible.pdf
UK GDP has dropped by an estimated 11.3% vs previous year - the worst recession since 1709.
For some perspective in the UK this is worse than:
-2008 Financial crisis
-WW2
-1930s depression (although combined drop in GDP in 1930-1932 was bigger)
-Flu pandemic of 1918/19 (no effect on growth)
-WW1
-Cholera outbreaks of 1849, 1831/32
-Napoleonic wars

Pent up demand, will not erase those forecasts, we'll still be below pre covid levels until 2026, at least. And that is optimistic.

The issue is most people have no idea what the OBR forecasts mean, we can qualify and quantify the impact of covid deaths. Attempts have been done to quantify and qualify the impact of Brexit, tiny comparatively to the viral impact, apparently ('We're all going to starve').
Yet the effects of government measures on the economy have been strangely silent or dismissed in favour of 'We must save lives.' Of which Horby is an evangelical priest.

My DD is in year 11, she has additional needs so home schooling her is hard, I really struggled with it during the first lockdown but she’s also in a group of higher risk of health complications and death from Covid. So I would rather have her school closed for a few weeks and me crying over materials when DD is in bed but her being alive and well.
Her school doesn’t have space to distance students properly and to put them one at a table in all lessons. The PE changing rooms are very small. There are no enough resources to control mask wearing, lunch time and break time interactions, staggered time arrival, etc. Also students do what they want on the way to and from school.
I’ve also got feeling from social media and real life that some parents of primary children think that they can mix with their classmates outside of school hours as “ they are in a bubble anyway”. it’s wrong approach imo contributing to the spread greatly.
So I can’t see what to do with all these issues other than to close schools and move to online learning at least for some time. And keep schools open for some children like it was in spring.

@TrustTheGeneGenie

You aren’t getting my point

I'm assuming your point is tough shit, deal with it.

Yes that's what ill have to do and then I'll pick up all the pieces again with fuck all support, again.

We are all in a similar situation. Some have to pick up the pieces with DC, some jobs/careers, MH, loss of loved ones, long covid. It’s impacted almost everyone in way or another. The only thing we can do is try to minimise that impact and start again once this is over. For me I’ve had a high risk pregnancy and complicated delivery during the first lockdown. Baby was premature, in hospital for weeks. I had to deal with that without any support despite having a caring and loving family network around me. It’s hit me hard emotionally, but I know it could’ve been worse, there’s no point in me getting angry as the truth is no one can help me, it really is what it is. I’m trying to be positive and hoping to make up for all that lost time once this shit show is over.

@TrustTheGeneGenie

You are so so wrong in your assumptions. It is shit for the great majority, whether working from home or finding emergency childcare. So please stop thinking you’re the only victim in this and playing the martyr because YOUR Dc won’t get their play date. So entitled to think you’re the only one suffering or your children. You in fact are the selfish one who needs to cop on!!

Most people realise and have the common sense to realise what needs to happen.

Is there any evidence that part time rotas are effective? It’s difficult to compare but it appears that a lot of other countries with more measures in place are now closing schools? I think the issue last time was that the closure went on for so long-4 months. That was really detrimental even to the kids in a good family set up. I wonder if a shorter period would work at the same time as lateral flow tests and increasing vaccination and natural immunity

[quote DfEisashambles]@TrustTheGeneGenie

You are so so wrong in your assumptions. It is shit for the great majority, whether working from home or finding emergency childcare. So please stop thinking you’re the only victim in this and playing the martyr because YOUR Dc won’t get their play date. So entitled to think you’re the only one suffering or your children. You in fact are the selfish one who needs to cop on!!

Most people realise and have the common sense to realise what needs to happen.[/quote]
I don't think I'm the only victim.

Why are you continuously downplaying education and vital socialization as play dates??

I'm selfish for wanting what's best for my child. Yes, I'll take that. I mean who doesn't want that? Do you not? Or do you care about everyone else more than your own kids?

will it save lives or will it just delay deaths since that is in fact what lockdowns are designed to do?

The first lockdown absolutely did save lives. It brought cases right down, and they stayed low all summer, and people who would have got ill and died didn't.

Even the second lockdown had a noticeable impact on the hospitalisation figures.

It is nonsense to say that lockdowns don't save lives.

will it save lives or will it just delay deaths

It will save lives, if it reduces transmission at the same time the vaccine is being rolled out.

I'm glad your kids understand you putting them

You are just being nasty at this point.

The Twitter discussion is saying that closing schools is not a huge help to controlling the new variant, according to the not peer-reviewed modelling article from LSHTM.

@TrustTheGeneGenie

How am I downplaying socialisation and education you daft woman. You do realise it’s temporary?

This affects so many people in horrible ways who get on with it and do the best they can for the greater good. You are unbelievably dramatic saying your children’s lives comes first when their lives aren’t even at stake. It’s temporary and necessary.

My DC have done their best to learn online and cope, they hate it but they understand.

@TrustTheGeneGenie

Do people really have no clue about the reality of the developmental stage their own children are at? Did they think a 4 or 5 year old needs, or is capable of, 5 hours of structured lessons?

No, we know they don't do this at school, but we also know a couple of worksheets at home is nowhere near what school offers.

I'm sick of hearing small kids dont matter. Their education doesn't matter. Their friendships and development don't matter. Because they are only 4 or 5.

I’m also fed up of secondary being viewed as some sort of optional extra as well or that the kids can just stay home. I wfh thankfully but there’s no way on gods green earth I could reasonably leave my autistic just turned 12 year old home alone (or even with his brother) 10 hours a day and expect him to power through his work. As usual people who parrot on about secondary kids don’t have any comprehension about the challenges of kids with special needs.

And older kids how on earth am I meant to help a kid with Nat 5 graphics, chemistry or computing science when I have done none of these? Not to mention a lot of high school subjects need taught in school, “online” doesn’t cut it.

I have no issue with closures or part time for the shortest period possible as I already said but I am aware it’s easier for me to deal with than others. The problem is that once schools are shut that will be it for many months as it was before. Since when have any restrictions only ever been for the initial period mooted?

@RigaBalsam

I'm glad your kids understand you putting them

You are just being nasty at this point.

Oh I am? I mean I've been called selfish and disgusting, and I'm being nasty? Well if you can't take it don't fucking give it eh?

Horby isn't the author of the research?