Is the new strain very serious?

[MerinoFroggie]

I'm thinking the new strain must be very serious and governments are withholding the information for now until after Christmas so we can have somewhat of an OKish Christmas day. I feel they will drop a bombshell after Christmas and maybe even introduce a harder and harsher lockdown like in wuhan.

It must be serious for the government to implement a quick lockdown, and cancel travel and ban Christmas. It must be serious for the eu countries to start closing of the UK where the new strain is higher. A lot of the eu never closed off from each other earlier in the pandemic when it was kicking off. Some places did close off and some had travel restrictions and as soon as possible there was travel red, orange, green light map within the eu and Europe.

It must be serious.

If its very serious why don't they tell us now and screw Christmas. There will be people breaking guidelines all around but it might shake people up and make them sit up straight and behave and follow the guidelines on travel and contacts.

If that's the case, its most likely a man made virus behaving this abnormal

@Fizbosshoes

Their worse case scenario was optimistic given we're currently at over 2 millions cases...! Here's a thought, perhaps the news channels/medical professionals focus on cases/deaths so that the publicmightheed the advice and exercise caution.

Sorry I think they said 50k a day (which didnt happen then....but may well be the case now)

They did say 500 deaths a day by mid November which we'd hit by late October.

Seems projecting facts (based on evidence is scaremongering to some )

@Lourdes12

If that's the case, its most likely a man made virus behaving this abnormal

This is not abnormal. It's what viruses do. Always.

@thepeopleversuswork

The virus is much more tranmissable but there's no evidence at all yet that its more serious in terms of its outcome on patients. And historically it has tended to be the case that viruses become weaker when they become more transmissable.

So we can't be certain but the odds are that this strain is not more serious.

But as it's more transmissible, more people will get it and more will die, and strain health care providers.

Plus, it may be able to defeat the vaccine.

I think if you want to know more you would be better to look at sources such as the BMJ rather than Mumsnet. e.g. www.bmj.com/content/371/bmj.m4857

@TurquoiseBaubles - I think the same. Announces a new strain and then backtracks in Xmas .

QueenStromba They did say 500 deaths a day by mid November which we'd hit by late October.

I had a look back through the daily announced data. Acknowledging that there's a time lag between deaths reported daily and the actual date of death, by late October we were at a 7 day average of 259 deaths a day. 4 November saw the first big daily jump to 492, and then 532 by 10 November. The current average is 459. 22 November the 7 day average was 442.

Still a tragedy for every single family affected but nowhere near April figures where the 7 day average went into the 900s.

This new strain has been rampant through the SE for 7 weeks - during lockdown that began 5 November figures continued to defy expectation by rising dramatically whilst other areas fell just as dramatically. Rates still continue to rise disproportionately in the SE. But. So far that is not leading to a corresponding increase in the death rate.

I have my fingers tightly crossed on this, looking for positives not conspiracy theories.

Wow I did not realise there were so many virus experts on here, surely you guys should be too busy for MN at the moment!?