Is the new strain very serious?

[MerinoFroggie]

I'm thinking the new strain must be very serious and governments are withholding the information for now until after Christmas so we can have somewhat of an OKish Christmas day. I feel they will drop a bombshell after Christmas and maybe even introduce a harder and harsher lockdown like in wuhan.

It must be serious for the government to implement a quick lockdown, and cancel travel and ban Christmas. It must be serious for the eu countries to start closing of the UK where the new strain is higher. A lot of the eu never closed off from each other earlier in the pandemic when it was kicking off. Some places did close off and some had travel restrictions and as soon as possible there was travel red, orange, green light map within the eu and Europe.

It must be serious.

If its very serious why don't they tell us now and screw Christmas. There will be people breaking guidelines all around but it might shake people up and make them sit up straight and behave and follow the guidelines on travel and contacts.

For the avoidance of doubt, the UK variant was NOT first identified in September. Once a new variant is found, we look backwards to try and determine when it first emerged. The earliest sample found positive for the variant in this lookback was collected in September.

To clarify further, variants are found all the time. Significance of those variants takes time to establish. Just because a sequence was submitted to a repository doesn’t mean it’s identified as being anything important. The fact it’s there, allows us to find it once we do know.

This has all happened very recently. Bearing in mind, lots of variants have emerged over the pandemic, you can’t tell immediately which ones are significant. Identification to alert has actually been very rapid in this case.

We have enough genomic data in the UK to back track that fast. The real significance of it has only been realised in the last week or two.
mobile.twitter.com/SmallRedOne/status/1340796568157515779

No lol, it’s not a basic question- or one that was even applicable 9 months ago ?

Maybe you just don’t understand the question?

[quote CoffeeandCroissant]For the avoidance of doubt, the UK variant was NOT first identified in September. Once a new variant is found, we look backwards to try and determine when it first emerged. The earliest sample found positive for the variant in this lookback was collected in September.

To clarify further, variants are found all the time. Significance of those variants takes time to establish. Just because a sequence was submitted to a repository doesn’t mean it’s identified as being anything important. The fact it’s there, allows us to find it once we do know.

This has all happened very recently. Bearing in mind, lots of variants have emerged over the pandemic, you can’t tell immediately which ones are significant. Identification to alert has actually been very rapid in this case.

We have enough genomic data in the UK to back track that fast. The real significance of it has only been realised in the last week or two.
mobile.twitter.com/SmallRedOne/status/1340796568157515779[/quote]
Thanks for this

I think the previous responses to your post have forgotten that the Coronavirus Group is a pretty big group of viruses, not just SARS-Cov-2 that causes Covid 19. It is just one of a sizeable number of them.

There are other viruses in the group, all different coronaviruses, that cause flu, the common cold and other respiratory infections.

There are seven human coronaviruses (HCoVs) , none of them cause flu, four of them cause the common cold, but are only responsible for about 1 in 3 colds, the remainder are not caused by coronaviruses. The other 3 are MERS, SARS-Cov and SARS-CoV-2 which causes Covid-19.

We might have hoped that by now people would understand exponentials and why this means following guidelines to minimise spread is even more important but unfortunately it seems not.

Exactly this. I continue to be dumbfounded at the willful ignorance of so many.

It’s highly unlikely the vaccine needs tweaking though as it gives a multi response in us.

Generally viruses mutate to be more infectious but less severe - this is my understanding anyway (but I’m not an expert). It’s how the virus ensures it continues.

Boris to hold emergency press conference today

@Puzzledandpissedoff

I guess it's all just one big conspiracy theory then right?

Who knows? I'm not much into these theories myself, but with the countless deceits and the corruption we've seen I no longer take anything these people say on trust

I see your point, but as I mentioned in my first post, I don't rely on lying/self-serving politicians for my info. I have friends on the frontline in London hospitals and they are saying this situation is pretty dire. Seems the rest of the UK are perhaps 2-3 weeks behind London, which is no different to how the UK were 2-3 weeks behind Italy/Spain/France earlier this year. Rather than allowing this to spread, they should already be locking down the rest of the country. Lots of people (who aren't originally from London) have travelled up north. This thing is spreading right now in the cites that aren't tier 4.

Thanks for that link about September, CoffeeandCroissant ... so the reports of it being "discovered" then are just more irresponsible reporting?

Imagine if we all just turned the news off

@lu00

Imagine if we all just turned the news off

We'd be fucked in about four weeks' time when all hospital capacity is full!

@lu00

No, I’m saying I understand the worry of the Covid-19 strain. I don’t understand why we now must worry about ALL coronaviruses when we didn’t before

We don't worry about the ones that cause colds, even now, do we? They're just bimbling around in the background not doing much. They're still not a big worry. And SARS 1 and MERS are not a worry because they're not spreading widely.

If coronaviruses were cats - SARS 1 and MERS might be a lion and a panther, both in cages at the moment, not a risk. Colds caused by coronaviruses would be domestic cats - all over the place, but not really dangerous. SARS 2 (causing covid 19), on the other hand, is a tiger, on the loose and dangerous, because of how it's stopping societies and healthcare systems from functioning normally.

Imagine if we all just turned the news off

May I suggest a middle way, which is to catch up with it just once a day?

It seems to me that a great deal of the panic's been generated by 24/7 rolling news, with irresponsible broadcasters competing for the most glaring "headline" and it really doesn't help

@Puzzledandpissedoff

Imagine if we all just turned the news off

May I suggest a middle way, which is to catch up with it just once a day?

It seems to me that a great deal of the panic's been generated by 24/7 rolling news, with irresponsible broadcasters competing for the most glaring "headline" and it really doesn't help

Yeh I guess I mean that. Just not having it on and obsessing over it constantly

I don’t know about anyone else but it’s driving me crazy and really adds no benefits to my life

Yes agree once a day news is the best way

@Sunnysideup999

Generally viruses mutate to be more infectious but less severe - this is my understanding anyway (but I’m not an expert). It’s how the virus ensures it continues.

Generally yes. But that is when the severity of the illness restricts the transmission.

With covid, severity doesn't restrict transmission, because it is a mild disease in so many.

So it is quite possible covid could mutate with more, less or the same severity.

It seems to me that a great deal of the panic's been generated by 24/7 rolling news, with irresponsible broadcasters competing for the most glaring "headline" and it really doesn't help

I remember the press conference in the autumn with Chris Whity and Patrick valance. Their worst case scenario was 50k cases in October. Literally the moment the press conference finished the reporter on five live said, well that's very sobering they're expecting 50k cases in x weeks and every headline the next day focussed on that. (A bit like in Debenhams sale when theres a huge sign saying 50% off ....and in tiny writing, it's up to 50% off)
Today Jeremy Vine (I feel he seems to really enjoy inciting panic and especially panic buying ) said the new strain was 70% more contagious. I'm sure I heard them say up to 70%?.....but why let that get in the way of the story.
I know it's bad, but I think I listen or watch the wrong media. We need the truth but we also need a bit of hope!

@lu00

No, I’m saying I understand the worry of the Covid-19 strain. I don’t understand why we now must worry about ALL coronaviruses when we didn’t before

SARS1 and MERS were quite worrying but neither were particularly contagious so we had very few cases, particularly in the West.

I remember the press conference in the autumn with Chris Whity and Patrick valance. Their worst case scenario was 50k cases in October. Literally the moment the press conference finished the reporter on five live said, well that's very sobering they're expecting 50k cases in x weeks and every headline the next day focussed on that.

Their worse case scenario was optimistic given we're currently at over 2 millions cases...! Here's a thought, perhaps the news channels/medical professionals focus on cases/deaths so that the public might heed the advice and exercise caution.

A bit like in Debenhams sale when theres a huge sign saying 50% off ... and in tiny writing, it's up to 50% off

Off topic I know, but that's as dodgy as all the rest since the law actually requires the "up to" to be in the same size font as the discount

Only it's not enforced - which makes me think it's maybe not so "off topic" after all

60% of case in the last week in London are caused by the new strain, 40% in south east. That means that there is a clear need to limit the spread of the new strain in areas where it isn’t already or it is at low levels.

Their worse case scenario was optimistic given we're currently at over 2 millions cases...! Here's a thought, perhaps the news channels/medical professionals focus on cases/deaths so that the publicmightheed the advice and exercise caution.

Sorry I think they said 50k a day (which didnt happen then....but may well be the case now)

The virus is much more tranmissable but there's no evidence at all yet that its more serious in terms of its outcome on patients. And historically it has tended to be the case that viruses become weaker when they become more transmissable.

So we can't be certain but the odds are that this strain is not more serious.

@Fizbosshoes

Their worse case scenario was optimistic given we're currently at over 2 millions cases...! Here's a thought, perhaps the news channels/medical professionals focus on cases/deaths so that the publicmightheed the advice and exercise caution.

Sorry I think they said 50k a day (which didnt happen then....but may well be the case now)

So the original point remains. They had to drum the message home. It's unfair to label this 'scare-mongering'. It's this very attitude that has got us into this mess. I wonder if the rampant anti-maskers in the SE will continue protesting in central London. Morons.