Is the new strain very serious?

[MerinoFroggie]

I'm thinking the new strain must be very serious and governments are withholding the information for now until after Christmas so we can have somewhat of an OKish Christmas day. I feel they will drop a bombshell after Christmas and maybe even introduce a harder and harsher lockdown like in wuhan.

It must be serious for the government to implement a quick lockdown, and cancel travel and ban Christmas. It must be serious for the eu countries to start closing of the UK where the new strain is higher. A lot of the eu never closed off from each other earlier in the pandemic when it was kicking off. Some places did close off and some had travel restrictions and as soon as possible there was travel red, orange, green light map within the eu and Europe.

It must be serious.

If its very serious why don't they tell us now and screw Christmas. There will be people breaking guidelines all around but it might shake people up and make them sit up straight and behave and follow the guidelines on travel and contacts.

Its been around since September. But he didn't need to cancel Christmas in September, did he?!

I wouldn't worry OP. Its been used as a prop to help him cancel Christmas, scare the public into behaving. Rather than just admitting he made a mistake with allowing the Christmas break in the first place. Its backfired on him now though.

Travel bans have been nine months too late as well. All of that should have happened in March.

@whowants2know perhaps it is better than it was in England, but not in Wales where the new dragon had been found in all 4 areas. We are in dire staits with our hospitals. One county has zero icu beds with a full field hospital & Swansea Bay University Health Board which covers Swansea and Neath Port Talbot (which are both high) is nearing capacity and has now cases now than at the peak of the 1st wave. All hospitals in South Wales have cancelled all electives and most clinics.

So we are in a worse state with cases continuing to climb.

It's not as simple as that. A lot of it is to do with our immunity too.

Half the issue with this virus is how it triggers an ongoing immune response that seems to malfunction in some and be asymptomatic in others. The virus itself has moved on by then.

This mutation seems to be how it infects cells (better attachment so more contagious) and there may be another issue with how it avoids part of the immune system (best read on the linked thread, I'm not clear on that.)

• 'more cases' not 'now cases'.

If the strain has been around since September, isn't Europe banning from the UK a knee jerk reaction? If its around since September it will be everywhere my now.

This strain is also known to have been present in some other European countries. Not all countries have such good genomics vigilance so most countries aren't able to track strains as quickly.

But if your government stands up at a press conference and tells the world that a MUTANT VIRUS has CANCELLED CHRISTMAS then the very least you can expect is that other governments say "hang on, cancel travel and give us 48 hours to assess the risk".

There are a lot of different covid strains, there do seem to be legitimate concerns about this one but IMO it has likely been exaggerated by the government to justify last minute changes to their tier policy. Massive own goal if that's the case.

This particular virus mutation was noted in September but that doesn't mean everything was understood about it back then. It takes time to analyse and understand the significance of how it behaves. Other mutations have also been analysed.

Also those saying a virus will always mutate to become less infectious in order to always have a host are mistaken. Walksen explains why this isn't always the case better than I could. The significant mutation, or mutations are on the protein spike. The way the virus latches onto a cell. It's more about the transmission process.

Some of the Nightingales have been used, not to full capacity and not for covid but for other treatments, and as convalescent halfway house wards for people leaving hospital

I dont thinking it's fair to bash the UK for this. We have world leading science in this field. Blaming the UK for its study and releasing findings on this mutation is like shooting the messenger

I dont thinking it's fair to bash the UK for this. We have world leading science in this field. Blaming the UK for its study and releasing findings on this mutation is like shooting the messenger

It's not what it did but how. If this government wasn't so hell bent on isolationism, it would have shared information on the new variant with neighbouring countries as it emerged.

It's clear that this isn't brand new information - govt has known for days if not weeks, but sat on the info until parliament broke up for the holidays and then splashed information all over the front pages about how the MUTANT VIRUS was responsible for cancelling Christmas.

It's a totally self inflicted own goal by a government that repeatedly forgets that other governments also have sovereignty and a domestic audience.

It's not what it did but how. If this government wasn't so hell bent on isolationism, it would have shared information on the new variant with neighbouring countries as it emerged

What on earth are you talking about. It is science that discovered this mutation and as soon as the information was known it was shared. Information has been shared all along between scientific communities across the globe

It's clear that this isn't brand new information - govt has known for days if not weeks, but sat on the info until parliament broke up for the holidays and then splashed information all over the front pages about how the MUTANT VIRUS was responsible for cancelling Christmas.

You couldn't be more wrong
Do you understand that the government cannot stop information sharing between scientists and that the government does not control press headlines.

It's a totally self inflicted own goal by a government that repeatedly forgets that other governments also have sovereignty and a domestic audience.

Sorry but this just comes across meaningless drivel.

No I believe them on this. It spreads more easily but the illness isn't more serious and the vaccine should still be effective against it.

The interesting thing is, there could be a more dangerous mutation of the virus anywhere at any time - it's just chance that this more contagious strain turned up in Kent. Right now, there could be a super-duper Covid in Kentucky and a super-duper-di-loop covid in Tashkent.

So, although I'm sorry for people worrying and unable to travel, you could look at it from the point of view, the travel ban slows down the chance of someone bringing us an even worse mutation.

It's cold comfort, I suppose!

This mutation is perfectly capable of causing such a big reaction from governments simply because the virus passes through the population twice as easily, as it means the R will be much higher . If 20-40% of adults are asymptomatic the only way to control the spread is by lockdown. Otherwise, if people are each infecting say 3 or 4 people, then the numbers of people needing hospitalization will rise much, much faster than our ability to heal them and send them home. If you can even slightly bring down that exponential curve, the hospitals will have a hope of keeping up.

Measles has an R of 12 to 18 in an unvaccinated population, so some diseases become extremely good at reproducing themselves!

@Flaxmeadow

It's not what it did but how. If this government wasn't so hell bent on isolationism, it would have shared information on the new variant with neighbouring countries as it emerged

What on earth are you talking about. It is science that discovered this mutation and as soon as the information was known it was shared. Information has been shared all along between scientific communities across the globe

It's clear that this isn't brand new information - govt has known for days if not weeks, but sat on the info until parliament broke up for the holidays and then splashed information all over the front pages about how the MUTANT VIRUS was responsible for cancelling Christmas.

You couldn't be more wrong
Do you understand that the government cannot stop information sharing between scientists and that the government does not control press headlines.

It's a totally self inflicted own goal by a government that repeatedly forgets that other governments also have sovereignty and a domestic audience.

Sorry but this just comes across meaningless drivel.

Flaxmeadow making sense again (tg for posts like these)

If it was more dangerous they would tell. Us... There was more compliance in march as people were scared... If they could have used this being more deadly as a scare tactic then they would have. Same about it affecting children... People would comply much more if we were told our children were at a high risk.

The whole cancelling christmas i think was planned long ago... Get people to spend big in December to help the economy then cancel bubbles after people have spent money. They then have to spend even more money to have a different christmas at home. You then have helped the economy and the majority of people will ComPly with the rules.

Yes it is very serious if you are over 80 or clinically vulnerable.

It needs time to incubate.

I think in terms of Europe we also need to consider the Brexit trade negotiations- it is a fairly powerful message to send to the UK that they can just close borders and where that leaves us. I am not denying the new strain and the serious nature of the situation but Europe might be partly posturing to put pressure from their side on a deal. The new strain will already be rife in Europe so it is not going to make a substantial difference in terms of transmission.

@TW2013 I can’t say this didn’t go through my head too. However I do think this time it is an enormous coincidence. It was the Netherlands who banned flights first and I know I am biased as my DH is Dutch but it’s not the kind of thing they would do.

I thought Covid positives have doubled in a week and that is concerning to me, new strain or not. So the government had to do something about that and curtail Christmas plans.

However, it is also possible that lots more people were getting tests before Christmas before they were going to see loved ones/travel out of area/go on holiday? I don’t know if tests taken have also gone through the roof?

I don’t think it is worth panicking about the “new strain” until we have more information from scientists, especially regarding vaccine efficacy. What if it is actually a milder version? (Is that definitely off the table?)

I do understand why other countries would immediately close their borders to us. It is the prudent thing to do looking at our exponential growth rate. They have a duty of care towards their own people.

Did they also ban flights from South Africa (where a very similar variant has been detected)

I think this step shows that those who said 'we should have banned travel' right back at the start of the pandemic, have been listened to.

However, it is also possible that lots more people were getting tests before Christmas before they were going to see loved ones/travel out of area/go on holiday? I don’t know if tests taken have also gone through the roof?

This isn't down to the number of tests

On a 7 day rolling basis, the number of tests has gone up 4%, the number of positive tests is up 51%

Even allowing for the Welsh 11k anomaly not having yet dropped out of the 7 days, this is still a substantial increase.

coronavirus.data.gov.uk

What part of the Wuhan lockdown are you thinking should be emulated?
Apart from some sports being allowed, and able to meet 1 person outside, Tier 4 lockdown is not dissimilar to the first lockdown.(since schools are closed - I know they werent closed in the first lockdown but I mean there are thousands of children mingling at school)

[quote Nc135]@TW2013 I can’t say this didn’t go through my head too. However I do think this time it is an enormous coincidence. It was the Netherlands who banned flights first and I know I am biased as my DH is Dutch but it’s not the kind of thing they would do.[/quote]
Banning passenger flights is one thing (and in my opinion quite sensible all around). Freight is slightly different and there could be measures put in place to mitigate risks. I am not saying it is just Brexit but I wouldn't be surprised if it wasn't a factor.

It does feel like we've gone from the 5 day relaxation plan to tier 4 - new strain out of control - ports closed - travel bans extremely fast. I'm usually very laid back but this does feel like we are not being told everything. I expect we will be in tier 4 everywhere by end of December and possibly the schools won't re open on the 4th.

Usually more infectious viruses are also less severe. A successful virus spreads and doesn't kill the host to enable it to spread as much as possible.

I won't be surprised if the new strain proves to be less deadly and severe.

@TW2013 there is no ban on freight coming in. Just out for 48 hours. I can understand why. And it is accompanied freight only.

We've just had a lock down to '' save Xmas '' that was the point and idea wasn't it?

The speed and ferocious nature of this new strain has clearly taken them by massive surprise.

It would be the most horrendous act for anyone in the eu to deliberately close borders on us out of spite and malice, come on people!

I think it's moral duty to announce the new strain, we are not China, maybe Germany and Europe do already have it... But have not noticed? I'd be amazed if Germany missed it but clearly its the UK where its 'seeded'.

It's the knock on effects of issues that's the problem rather then it making people more ill.
Thank goodness, schools are off and weather for teens to mix outside of school is not good... I'm sure that will help in some small way.