Is the new strain very serious?

[MerinoFroggie]

I'm thinking the new strain must be very serious and governments are withholding the information for now until after Christmas so we can have somewhat of an OKish Christmas day. I feel they will drop a bombshell after Christmas and maybe even introduce a harder and harsher lockdown like in wuhan.

It must be serious for the government to implement a quick lockdown, and cancel travel and ban Christmas. It must be serious for the eu countries to start closing of the UK where the new strain is higher. A lot of the eu never closed off from each other earlier in the pandemic when it was kicking off. Some places did close off and some had travel restrictions and as soon as possible there was travel red, orange, green light map within the eu and Europe.

It must be serious.

If its very serious why don't they tell us now and screw Christmas. There will be people breaking guidelines all around but it might shake people up and make them sit up straight and behave and follow the guidelines on travel and contacts.

@Sunshiney1981

What I don’t understand is why the new strain was reported back in August/September but the government weren’t making a fuss of it then. This article is one of many written at that time: www.standard.co.uk/news/health/new-coronavirus-strain-disease-expert-a4527631.html

Just makes me think that this recent ‘new strain’ is just a convenient excuse for Boris to U-turn his 5 day Xmas plans....

Is it the same one?

Looks like a different number

Actually MP said briefed Friday night. Informed global community Saturday

Yes, this is very bad and if anything it's being downplayed by the government. If you read the latest NERVTAG meeting minutes the increase in R is 0.39-0.93 so it's very likely to be higher than the 0.4 they've told us.

They also know that tier 4 won't work if they open the schools as it's essentially the same as the last lockdown. If you look at the regional graphs you can see that the last lockdown was working well in London and the east of England until mid November and cases were rising again by the end of November. It's criminal that they put London in tier 2 when lockdown wasn't working.
www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/18december2020

At first glance the reinfection rate might be reassuring but that depends a lot on how they're counting reinfections - it's definitely a significant undercount no matter what method they've used. There is the possibility that having had the other strain gives no protection against reinfection with the new strain but it's probably going to take them a while to do the modelling. Even if you've had covid recently, you would be wise to still take precautions as if you haven't had it.

Again, from the NERVTAG meeting minutes, the 0.4% death rate is reassuring but we don't know anything about the demographics or how long ago these people tested positive (if a large proportion are very recent then that death rate could still increase). There's definitely room in the data for reinfection causing a less severe disease or even for the strain be be a little milder in general. It's important to remember though that if you have twice as many people infected you need the hospitalisation rate to halve to avoid increasing admissions (and that occupancy can keep rising even with steady admissions if discharges don't keep pace). Some tier 4 areas (and actually, some adjacent tier 2 areas e.g. Eastbourne) have seen cases triple in a week.

It would be the most horrendous act for anyone in the eu to deliberately close borders on us out of spite and malice, come on people!

What? The UK told the UK to go screw themselves because they were going their own way and wanted nothing of Europe, repeatedly, for the last four years. They told Europe that they wanted the terms they wanted and nothing else would do. And you think that it is "spite and malice" to close their borders against a country that has told them to go screw themselves but are entirely happy to continue to export a virulent strain of a virus that is "out of control"? I wouldn't call it spite and malice. I would call it karma.

There is no evidence that this strain is more deadly or more resistant to vaccines or treatment. That means that there is no reason to suppose either of those things are true because scientists will have been studying these matters since September and will have a high degree of confidence. But it is more virulent, so people need to be cautious and think through the appropriate responses. That includes governments.

It is perverse that people on Mumsnet are now slamming the EU for doing the right and appropriate thing when so many have been calling for a permanent Wuhan style lockdown and the imprisoning of their neighbours for infractions since March!

It's a bloody virus, ffs. We have no natural resources to fight it at the moment, so it constitutes a real risk to a very small number of people, but not to the majority. It is right to do what we can to protect those people. It is right to try to ensure that the health services we let be ravaged for decades can help those who need it most. And yes, the government is a shambles - and had we not allowed successive governments to diminish our health and social care systems so completely over the least decades, perhaps we might be in a better position to fight this virus now. But one thing is clear - it is not the EU's fault. This one is all on us.

@snog follow the other thread for more info.

@Moondust001 no we didn't say screw eu we said we wanted out and to negotiate our own trade
Banning all accompanied freight for 48 hrs is probably bigger delays than brexit woudl cause as goods could come in with paperwork
At the beginning not many cancelled flights from
China and europe has this strain according to some
We are actually in the eu as such and they have closed borders on accompanied freight
Yes they may be being cautious bit if really cautious all eu travel would be banned until they understand exactly where this is
Have you seen a lot of europes cases at the moment many have been rising for a few weeks as well
International travel prob best to banned all around as should if been done at the beginning of all this

@Sunshiney1981 I think that's a different one. The article snog refers to lists a few similar mutations.

Queen that’s an interesting link. Particularly as it indicates the spike is coming from children.

Also those saying a virus will always mutate to become less infectious in order to always have a host are mistaken. Walksen explains why this isn't always the case better than I could. The significant mutation, or mutations are on the protein spike. The way the virus latches onto a cell. It's more about the transmission process.

I was always under the illusion it got weaker
Maybe that's what's spooking the govt. and scientists.
It could go either way. They just don't know.
Worrying!.

This new variant has been hyped up to curb human behaviour and deflect blame from politicians. It's backfired.
If you shout from the rooftops that you are an island with its own special UK highly contagious virus, what do you expect to happen?

@opheliasCrayon

**Prof Witty said this strain presents more like a cold )
Do you have a link to him saying this?

Bluntness - yeah, one of the mechanisms for increased spread could be an increase in spread by young children.

As it’s MSM probably a bit of everything, whipping up a reaction and putting the fear of God into some people.

Just had the radio on but only half listening, I think it was Matt Hancock telling an anecdote about a recent wedding where 18 of the 20 guests attending tested positive for this new strain to demonstrate how virulent it is, however then stated all 18 felt absolutely fine and wouldn’t know they had it unless tested.

Why are we closing down the whole country for this? We can continue to take personal responsibility for protecting our vulnerable loved ones by social distancing, isolating before spending time with them or testing before contact without these blanket restrictions.

Why are we closing down the whole country for this?

Becayse they aren’t sure. They can’t say look we think it’s not less virulent and the virus as mutated to effectively the same as a common cold. Because it might not have and that’s just too big a gamble to take. So they need to work under the assumption it’s as virulent, until science can demonstrate what’s happened. And that takes time.

The issue of course is folks are going to go friggen nuts if Xmas is cancelled and it’s more benign. They won’t understand that they couldn’t take the risk.

At this stage it simply looks like China cares more about the health of their citizens than we do in the West do. There simply is no other explanation left.

Or maybe they're savvy enough to realise that by suppressing the virus, they naturally protect the economy too.

@ConfusedcomMum

At this stage it simply looks like China cares more about the health of their citizens than we do in the West do. There simply is no other explanation left.

Or maybe they're savvy enough to realise that by suppressing the virus, they naturally protect the economy too.

Really there are other explanations

One of which is that China imposed measures we would not accept

I am in an area with fast rising cases. I know of people early in the pandemic who were very ill. I know more people who have had it recently and are getting over it quickly without any medical treatment. I strongly suspect the new strain is weaker.

[quote Earlgrey666]@opheliasCrayon

**Prof Witty said this strain presents more like a cold )
Do you have a link to him saying this?[/quote]
I could find it but honestly after a ridiculously stressful term teaching sen with covid absolutely everywhere, I have no will to go searching through the internet to find where I saw one thing.

He did say it, but I have no will to prove it. Sorry

@lu00

Maybe I’m just being thick but it’s Covid-19 just a strain of ‘Coronavirus’

And we were never worried about Coronaviruses before

So as a society now are we going to have to get worried about every single strain of coronaviruses that ever mutate again ie. coughs and colds etc

I don’t understand it

I think the previous responses to your post have forgotten that the Coronavirus Group is a pretty big group of viruses, not just SARS-Cov-2 that causes Covid 19. It is just one of a sizeable number of them.

There are other viruses in the group, all different coronaviruses, that cause flu, the common cold and other respiratory infections. They all mutate and you are right, we don't panic and shut down at every mutation of each time. I think the WHO monitors as many as it can.

Your question is valid.

@OpheliasCrayon Ok it's not that I don't believe you, just that it would give me potentially some reassurance and hope that's all and wondered if you had the link available.

I have also had a very difficult time as a community mental health nurse but not sure what relevance our job roles have to the discussion!

I will continue to try and read up regarding this.

[quote Earlgrey666]@OpheliasCrayon Ok it's not that I don't believe you, just that it would give me potentially some reassurance and hope that's all and wondered if you had the link available.

I have also had a very difficult time as a community mental health nurse but not sure what relevance our job roles have to the discussion!

I will continue to try and read up regarding this.[/quote]
Because as I'm sure you are (I'm under the care of mental health nurses - you guys are amazing - thank you!!!!!!!!!) Absolutely knackered from work (and have planning and two kids to look after ) so the last thing I want to do is spend time trying to locate stuff online when I'm all " worked out "
But he did say it in any case.

www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/4110225-New-strain-stuff

Here some great answers from scientists

Bugger wrong thread

Why do you think no other country in Europe except the UK has postponed starting it's vaccination programme until AFTER the biggest holiday season of the year?