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Original poster

Is the new strain very serious?

184 replies

MerinoFroggie · 21/12/2020 01:21

I'm thinking the new strain must be very serious and governments are withholding the information for now until after Christmas so we can have somewhat of an OKish Christmas day. I feel they will drop a bombshell after Christmas and maybe even introduce a harder and harsher lockdown like in wuhan.

It must be serious for the government to implement a quick lockdown, and cancel travel and ban Christmas. It must be serious for the eu countries to start closing of the UK where the new strain is higher. A lot of the eu never closed off from each other earlier in the pandemic when it was kicking off. Some places did close off and some had travel restrictions and as soon as possible there was travel red, orange, green light map within the eu and Europe.

It must be serious.

If its very serious why don't they tell us now and screw Christmas. There will be people breaking guidelines all around but it might shake people up and make them sit up straight and behave and follow the guidelines on travel and contacts.

OP posts:
notevenat20 · 21/12/2020 08:01

As far as I know it’s a scientific mystery. Danish numbers have been rocketing and they have almost none of the new strain. I expect we won’t have a good idea for a week or two.

inquietant · 21/12/2020 08:02

@BeakyWinder

It does feel like we've gone from the 5 day relaxation plan to tier 4 - new strain out of control - ports closed - travel bans extremely fast. I'm usually very laid back but this does feel like we are not being told everything. I expect we will be in tier 4 everywhere by end of December and possibly the schools won't re open on the 4th.
I agree about tier 4 being extended and schools.

I don't see how they can open schools in the tier 4 areas. If they don't open schools there, how can they do national exams?

It's all a mess.

Bluntness100 · 21/12/2020 08:05

Op they don’t know so need to do this. They need time for the medical community to find out about this strain.

As a pp said, normally viruses become more benign as they become more contagious, the opposite would be very rare. But everyone needs an abundance of caution till they find out.

You need to try to calm yourself down.

inquietant · 21/12/2020 08:06

Just the same %deaths but spreading 70% faster would be really bad tbh, as it will smash the NHS over the next few months.

CabinClose · 21/12/2020 08:06

I think we’re being told everything. The briefing document the government received has been released. That’s why other governments have been closing travel. Because the new variant increases the R to above a point where any lockdown we’ve had so far would stop exponential growth. There doesn’t need to be more, every government except ours can see that the most serious action is needed.

hamstersarse · 21/12/2020 08:06

The uk have the best (and most) testing in the world. So makes sense we ‘know’ first.

But there is not enough information to make any judgement on what this new variant means.

It could be that a new variant is more transmissible but less deadly.

It could be that it is more transmissible but similar in terms of death rate

It could be that it is more transmissible but more deadly.

As usual, the govt have not provided the information that is needed to be rational. As usual, they’ve created huge panic.

CabinClose · 21/12/2020 08:07

Would NOT stop exponential growth, that should say

DfEisashambles · 21/12/2020 08:10

I agree that this has conveniently let Boris be excused for cancelling Christmas hence Hancock freely saying ‘its out of control’ to the public.

However the OP has a right to question it and air her thoughts, hiding information would be something this government would do.

If you can’t hack open discussion or are particularly vulnerable please stay off MN.

MarshaBradyo · 21/12/2020 08:11

NERVTAG briefed government ten days ago. Government have not know since September.

There is nothing to suggest any of this has been ignored. It takes time for data to be gathered on spread. Which was the period from Sept to briefing.

inquietant · 21/12/2020 08:11

The uk have the best (and most) testing in the world. So makes sense we ‘know’ first.

We don't have the best covid testing by a long shot. We do have excellent - the best - sequencing which enabled us to work out the mutation had happened.

scaevola · 21/12/2020 08:12

It could be that it is more transmissible but similar in terms of death rate

This is the working hypothesis, based on observation of patients known to have the variant form

TheoriginalLEM · 21/12/2020 08:12

Dogsandbabies - i was going to post the exact same ( despite being fucking terrified). The reson why Ebola didnt become a pandemic is because it is so deadly. Coronavirus is so successful as a virus because people are walking around with it unknowingly infecting more people.

Im not sure that will be the case with this new strain. Chris next slide please whitty said that the changes in the sequence is for one of the protiens that affects how the virus gets into cells. I think that would suggest that it may well increase vviral load for people which could in theory make them more sick. However they didnt say that was the case, im surmising as someone who studied a module on immunology at uni 17 years ago - so i dont know shit to be honest.

I think there is a lot we are not being told though

IceCreamAndCandyfloss · 21/12/2020 08:12

If it’s been here since September I don’t get why only now other countries are stopping us from travelling. They would have done that earlier to stop half term holidays etc.

I agree with no travelling but the mass ban worries me that they know more than we do.

inquietant · 21/12/2020 08:13

NERVTAG briefed government ten days ago - which makes it disgusting that Boris openly mocked Starmer in the commons for suggesting the Christmas lockdown needed review.

The constant bluster, u-turn cycle is very damaging.

MarshaBradyo · 21/12/2020 08:13

@IceCreamAndCandyfloss

If it’s been here since September I don’t get why only now other countries are stopping us from travelling. They would have done that earlier to stop half term holidays etc.

I agree with no travelling but the mass ban worries me that they know more than we do.

Icecream see below on timing.

It takes time to see data on spread. NERVTAG only just briefed situation.

inquietant · 21/12/2020 08:15

Assume it is only now it has been officially notified that it is crowding out the other strains, how fast it is spreading etc.

Meerschweinchen1990 · 21/12/2020 08:16

They’re unlikely to know more than we do because a lot of European countries do not sequence viruses as much as the UK (and Denmark) do.

Bagelsandbrie · 21/12/2020 08:16

I suspect the new strain has been around longer than they think and many haven’t even realised they’ve had it or are carrying it so haven’t tested. Generally as others have said new strains are less deadly in order to keep spreading. However, this is 2020 and anything goes so we will see!

Snog · 21/12/2020 08:18

@NeurotreeWenceslas thank you for your link to the Science article, really helpful

Musicaldilemma · 21/12/2020 08:20

What is interesting to me is that the government have stressed asymptomatic spread even more, I remember reading up to 1/3. What proportion of the new positives have no symptoms?

What if many more people in the London area had this virus the first time round than they ever thought? What if those people are now more likely to be testing positive with no symptoms? So they have acquired some immunity previously and now testing positive for this “new strain”, asymptomatically.

There are so many possibilities, no point panicking yet.

Timbucktime · 21/12/2020 08:21

The Daily Mail have reported that Professor Ferguson has returned to work on the government’s advisory body NERVTAG. This is the body that say they found the ‘new’ strain and were instrumental in the Christmas u turn.
I’m not sure this will go down very well with a lot of people.

SexTrainGlue · 21/12/2020 08:21

Generally as others have said new strains are less deadly in order to keep spreading

That is true for those viruses which need a longer time to transmit and so do not want the host to be laid low before it has a chance to spread. SARS-COV2 spreads in the days before symptoms appear, so it has no imperative to change how lethal it is

timeforanewstart · 21/12/2020 08:21

@OverTheRainbow88 have you seen the figures in europe ? Some are worse than ours now and france had spiralling cases back a couple weeks and germanys numbers going up
Who knows where this new strain originates from but seems kent and london where its more rife but has been found elsewhere and I think possibly in other countries
i beleive sa is also seeing a mutation but don't think its the same one
Its the virus that seems to be in control

Sunshiney1981 · 21/12/2020 08:22

What I don’t understand is why the new strain was reported back in August/September but the government weren’t making a fuss of it then.
This article is one of many written at that time:
www.standard.co.uk/news/health/new-coronavirus-strain-disease-expert-a4527631.html

Just makes me think that this recent ‘new strain’ is just a convenient excuse for Boris to U-turn his 5 day Xmas plans....

SexTrainGlue · 21/12/2020 08:23

@Timbucktime

The Daily Mail have reported that Professor Ferguson has returned to work on the government’s advisory body NERVTAG. This is the body that say they found the ‘new’ strain and were instrumental in the Christmas u turn. I’m not sure this will go down very well with a lot of people.
Are they bothering to report on the qualifications, credentials and reputations of all the NERVTAG members?

or just whipping up a reaction?