Active discussions

Meet the Other Phone. Protection built in.

Meet the Other Phone.
Protection built in.

Buy now

Please or to access all these features

Talk
Covid

Mumsnet doesn't verify the qualifications of users. If you have medical concerns, please consult a healthcare professional.

Original poster

Is the new strain very serious?

184 replies

MerinoFroggie · 21/12/2020 01:21

I'm thinking the new strain must be very serious and governments are withholding the information for now until after Christmas so we can have somewhat of an OKish Christmas day. I feel they will drop a bombshell after Christmas and maybe even introduce a harder and harsher lockdown like in wuhan.

It must be serious for the government to implement a quick lockdown, and cancel travel and ban Christmas. It must be serious for the eu countries to start closing of the UK where the new strain is higher. A lot of the eu never closed off from each other earlier in the pandemic when it was kicking off. Some places did close off and some had travel restrictions and as soon as possible there was travel red, orange, green light map within the eu and Europe.

It must be serious.

If its very serious why don't they tell us now and screw Christmas. There will be people breaking guidelines all around but it might shake people up and make them sit up straight and behave and follow the guidelines on travel and contacts.

OP posts:
FlamedToACrisp · 21/12/2020 03:45

I must admit I was alarmed to hear Matt Hancock describing it as "out of control." I mean, obviously, it was always out of control because if not, we would have controlled it, but it was his saying it in public which bothered me.

Ki86 · 21/12/2020 03:50

Well numbers dead per day are back to how they were in April they just aren't saying it on the news anymore but the info is on the news pages on the internet.

inquietant · 21/12/2020 03:50

@Thedarknightsaredrawingin

For the first time in months I am awake at night worrying about covid. I thought the announcements would be less worrying by now.
Me too, the new strain is very serious.

The UK has badly mishandled things and now this curve ball is making it worse.

Snog · 21/12/2020 03:54

Me too.
I thought things were looking hopeful and now feel less sure.

housemdwaswrong · 21/12/2020 03:55

I don't think it's more serious in terms of more likely to kill you/make you severely ill, but absolutely serious in its potential to spread, and collapse the NHS to a point where unsavory decisions need to be made.

Ki86 · 21/12/2020 03:57

I have also said the government didn't impose enough restrictions from the outset. Wuhan in china where the virus first started spent about 76 days in lockdown initially and got rid of the virus. Our government has been way too liberal, not wanting to cause upset but it's ridiculous. People aren't following the rules because the government haven't been clear or consistent. We would be out of this now if we had locked down properly in the beginning.

OpheliasCrayon · 21/12/2020 03:59

The government have fucked up the response to this royally. How handy that the new strain of covid just ... Appeared on 19/12 (when it's been around since Sept)... Nicely allowing Boris to cancel Christmas. What he really needed to do was have the balls to admit that he needed to cancel Christmas but hadn't done it already. So he's just been even more of a weak minded idiot and used the excuse of a strain that's been around for months so as not to ruin his own reputation. That's my thoughts.

And even if I'm wrong and I need to give my tin foil hat a wobble, all viruses mutate it's what they do. However , viruses don't mutate to be more deadly - viruses do what this is doing - mutate to be more easily spread and in doing so, they usually become less deadly (Prof Witty said this strain presents more like a cold ).. if they mutated to become more deadly that would be pointless for the virus as it can't spread easily if it's so deadly it kills the host (people ). That's why things like SARs and MERS died out.

You've worked yourself up massively OP. There's no need.

WhoWants2Know · 21/12/2020 04:02

I think Hancock was wrong to use the phrase "out of control," and could have chosen more responsible wording. If the new strain really has been around for months (not sure of the sources on that info) then why is a response only happening now?

Of course it's bad that positive tests have increased to where they were during the worst part of the first wave. But back then it was very difficult to get a test unless you were sick enough to be admitted to hospital. We weren't testing in the community at all, so there were many more people who had the virus that were never included in the numbers.

I'm not saying that the current situation isn't serious, but I think it's still better than it was back then.

OpheliasCrayon · 21/12/2020 04:11

@WhoWants2Know

I think Hancock was wrong to use the phrase "out of control," and could have chosen more responsible wording. If the new strain really has been around for months (not sure of the sources on that info) then why is a response only happening now?

Of course it's bad that positive tests have increased to where they were during the worst part of the first wave. But back then it was very difficult to get a test unless you were sick enough to be admitted to hospital. We weren't testing in the community at all, so there were many more people who had the virus that were never included in the numbers.

I'm not saying that the current situation isn't serious, but I think it's still better than it was back then.

Matt hancock I'm sure used out of control to make sure that people did what the gvmt want over Xmas, but what the gvmt haven't had the balls to say so far. Obviously the scare tactics are working by threads like this.
safariboot · 21/12/2020 04:16

It's serious in the sense that the measures we had in November were not enough to suppress it. The measures we had in March might not be sufficient to suppress the new strain. Do not be surprised by even greater restrictions.

But if you do get it, and the NHS is able to treat you if needed, then you are at no greater risk than with the old strain.

bunwell · 21/12/2020 04:24

I’m in tier 4 and knew so many people with COVID in March, including us. Very few tested as early stages of the pandemic. I don’t know anyone now despite working in central London daily. I wonder if the student’s leaving and being testing has created a surge in figures?

YukoandHiro · 21/12/2020 04:29

Came here to say what @OpheliasCrayon said. The mutation is troubling in terms of exponential growth but is more likely to be found to be a more mild version of the illness - if that's the case things will look much rosier in a few of months

NeurotreeWenceslas · 21/12/2020 04:31

Useful science thread on it.

New strain stuff..... www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/4110225-New-strain-stuff

NeurotreeWenceslas · 21/12/2020 04:33

but is more likely to be found to be a more mild version of the illness

We don't know that as yet; what's changed is how it attaches to cells, and the way it has changed is unusual.

NeurotreeWenceslas · 21/12/2020 04:35

Good article, essentially most of the data is still being collected.

www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/12/mutant-coronavirus-united-kingdom-sets-alarms-its-importance-remains-unclear

BooseysMom · 21/12/2020 04:44

I wish I could remember the virologist who went on R2 in the summer and said this virus will not mutate. Bet he's feeling a little stupid now!

Nc135 · 21/12/2020 05:00

Useful science thread on it.

New strain stuff..... www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/4110225-New-strain-stuff

This

NeurotreeWenceslas · 21/12/2020 05:02

Another good article

There's no data on whether it creates a worse or lesser response as yet, only a change in transmission.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/dec/20/fast-spreading-covid-variant-in-england-uk?CMP=ShareiOSAppp_Other

PhilCornwall1 · 21/12/2020 05:39

If its very serious why don't they tell us now and screw Christmas. There will be people breaking guidelines all around but it might shake people up and make them sit up straight and behave and follow the guidelines on travel and contacts.

Because it won't shake people up, I'd say a fair few are now at they"whatever" stage. Me included.

Rulesdontapplytome · 21/12/2020 06:00

A virus will always mutate to become more efficient. It’s ultimate goal is to become as infectious as possible, but also less dangerous, as killing it’s host stops the transmission. I’m confident that once time has passed and virologist’s can show data retrospectively, that they will show this strain to be less dangerous.
The data we really need to see, is how many people are going into hospital with it, and their recovery times.

If it’s so rife, so dangerous, why are the Nightingale hospitals gathering dust?

PhilCornwall1 · 21/12/2020 06:03

If it’s so rife, so dangerous, why are the Nightingale hospitals gathering dust?

Have they got the staff to run them?

OverTheRainbow88 · 21/12/2020 06:13

I’ve read it’s been around since sept, maybe it’s just got to London which is hugely densely populated so major problems have occurred.

Not sure why Europe is just banning us now? I would have banned us from March and since we’ve done so terribly not let us back in since.
Saying this with a heavy heart as we have family abroad we haven’t seen since this time last year

walksen · 21/12/2020 06:18

"A virus will always mutate to become more efficient. It’s ultimate goal is to become as infectious as possible, but also less dangerous, as killing it’s host stops the transmission. "

A virus does not have goals. It is simply that if a mutation provided a reproductive advantage it becomes more prevalent. It is evolution is in action. Most commonly this usually results in a virus becoming less dangerous but this is not guaranteed and there is no design involved. Certainly with coronavirus where transmission can occurs before symptoms even appear there is less selection pressure to not "killing the host" as opposed to something like the original safe.

Graciebobcat · 21/12/2020 06:25

I thought exactly the same, OP.

Crakeandoryx · 21/12/2020 06:25

Nightingale Hospitals can't be staffed without pulling from other areas. Hospitals are full or filling up and it's the risk of having to chose who gets treated and who doesn't.

Wales and parts of the north are struggling with current numbers BUT the infection rates have provided some community immunity and population density tends to be smaller in most areas.

The south east is the perfect storm. Family in Kent didn't know anyone who had had covid until the last few weeks, now it's everywhere. Meanwhile in the north I think all of my neighbours and us have had it in the last 5 months if not then first lockdown saw high infections here as well.

There is no way this spread can be halted especially around Christmas because some people don't listen. Some people don't care or just don't get it.

The rest of us need to be additionally vigilant and not take risks. The finish line is in sight. Dig deep and hunker down.