Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread

[NoGoodPunsLeft]

UK govt pressers Slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots imperialcollegelondon.github.io/covid19local/#table
School statistics Attendance explore-education-statistics.service.gov.uk/find-statistics/attendance-in-education-and-early-years-settings-during-the-coronavirus-covid-19-outbreak
Modelling real number of UK infections February to date Link broken?
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHs England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
MSAO Map of English cases Link broken?
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSAO Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
CovidMessenger live update by council district in England www.covidmessenger.com/
Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, tests, ONS deaths public.tableau.com/profile/public.health.wales.health.protection#!/vizhome/RapidCOVID-19virology-Public/Headlinesummary
NI Dashboard app.powerbi.com/view?r=eyJrIjoiZGYxNjYzNmUtOTlmZS00ODAxLWE1YTEtMjA0NjZhMzlmN2JmIiwidCI6IjljOWEzMGRlLWQ4ZDctNGFhNC05NjAwLTRiZTc2MjVmZjZjNSIsImMiOjh9
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe Uk data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK read://https_www.ecdc.europa.eu/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.ecdc.europa.eu%2Fen%2Fcases-2019-ncov-eueea
Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=gbr&areas=fra&areas=esp&areas=ita&areas=deu&areas=swe&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&byDate=1&cumulative=1&logScale=1&per100K=1&values=deaths
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/3869571-Studies-corner?msgid=99913434

We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these

ds1 works in a drive-through Covid testing centre. Said Christmas Day was the busiest day he'd known there.

@Oaktree55

How quickly the vulnerable can be vaccinated and how much of an impact that will have on the ability to reduce the need for additional restrictions remains to be seen.

My GP surgery vaccinates the entire of its "vulnerable" population with the flu vaccine in 3 weekends plus some top ups appointments. Is a million a week particularly optimistic? If we have the supplies I'm not convinced that it is to be honest but, again, none of us really know at the moment.

@Sunshinegirl82 and your view on letting this run amok amongst under 50’s with potential for new variants and vaccine escape? I’d be amazed even with our scientifically illiterate Government if this will be allowed to happen.

I'm not sure where I said it would/should be allowed to happen? Or that I thought it would be a good idea? I said we didn't know how quickly the vaccine could be rolled out and we didn't know yet what the impact of vaccinating the vulnerable would have on the ability to reduce additional restrictions. Do you disagree with that?

That said, I do think that it will be nigh on impossible to maintain current levels of restriction for very much longer so it's a race to get as many people vaccinated as possible before widespread disengagement with restrictions.

Once the vulnerable are vaccinated the "protect the vulnerable" approach is, in my view, likely to be less motivating for your average, low risk person when it comes to moderating behaviour. There is no point ignoring that.

@sashagabadon
I totally forgot, put it top of my todo list.
Re: Hungary: I'm concerned for my family as well, that's why I reached out to my contacts in those places. Having said that: knowing H. I cannot rule out a decree from Orban at any point saying he personally overrules science and it has to be Sputnik. It's in the cards, but -atm- not likely.
H. has started sending out registration forms to pensioners asking if them to sign up for the vaccine.
If my sources are correct than it's a huge quantity of 10 doses of Sputnik in the country :)

speaking of Hungary - here is a good example:
atlo.team/koronamonitor/
let me know if Google doesn't translate it and you need help in navigating/understanding.

This is not the official though.

I think 1million a week from a supply/logistical viewpoint is nigh on impossible. As for restrictions will be all be T4 plus, no, but will this be allowed to circulate freely, I very much doubt it given the risks at stake.

This is awesome:
portal.who.int/eios-coronavirus-newsmap/

It feels like I'm playing Plague Inc :)

@Oaktree55

Fact remains even in best case, rose tinted glasses view and Oxford is the saving grace at 1million doses rollout a week (which is optimistic) we won’t be through the vulnerable by Easter and opening up after vaccinating only the vulnerable leaves us (and the world) wide open to vaccine escape. I just don’t think it’s realistic to think it’s back to normal at Easter and I think people’s expectations need managing.

So which of your facts should we rely on Oaktree55 since some of your facts are, in fact, less than factual?

@Oaktree55

Do we have information on how many flu vaccines are done weekly? It would be interesting to have a base line for what is achieved without any special measures.

I'm not sure I'd agree that a million a week is necessarily nigh on impossible. If mass sites are set up, the army/additional personnel are drafted in I can see how it could be achieved. Whether it will happen is, of course, another thing.

I'm not sure where anyone suggested that it would be allowed/a good idea for covid to be running riot in the under 50s? Where is that concern coming from?

Thanks TheSun I will take a look at that link. I would be interested to follow vaccine roll out everywhere.
There are things to complain about in the U.K.. it is not perfect of course but I think we have much more transparency here and we have done far more to help the world fight against corona than Orban has contributed. My colleague would certainly say the same, she has no intention to ever return to Hungary and has a British passport now and is a fantastic addition to our country

Who are those fuckers fleeing the ski resort. Why are they there in the first place? What a bunch of morons.

Good example:
co.vid19.sg/singapore/dashboard

Some pieces are messed up (dates on charts are unreadable), but the depth of information and the Analytics and Insight tabs are nice as well

www.gov.uk/government/statistics/seasonal-flu-vaccine-uptake-in-gp-patients-monthly-data-2019-to-2020

Sunshinegirl I'm on my phone so its hard to navigate but it looks to me like around 17million in 6 months?

In terms of data (ahem), the numbers of vaccines given should hopefully be updated tomorrow, and give us a better picture of the current run rate (although, like testing, there may well be a Christmas induced dip I guess).

The data is supposed to be being updated weekly.

TheSun it looks pretty but do we really need to know all that?

We get more information from the ONS on a weekly basis but I am a bit uncomfortable when Singapore list the nationalities and where infections have come from etc.

Too me it's too much info although I do find the UK dashboards a bit hard to use at times. This one is definitely prettier!

@InterfectoremVulpes

Thanks! So that averages to over 650,000 a week by my calculations? To be honest if that is done annually without any particular effort does doubling the rate seem unrealistic with additional resources thrown at it?

I'd hope we could do quite a lot more than a million a week to be honest! Always with the proviso that what seems achievable and what actually ends up happening are not always the same thing!

Thanks! So that averages to over 650,000 a week by my calculations?

On average yes, but the figures just cover a 6 month block and I would expect most would be done sept to dec (i.e. before flu season starts properly) so they could be doing more a week.

My sons school had theirs at the start of December.

A million a week is still a year to do 26 million people.

I like the German's one as well
experience.arcgis.com/experience/478220a4c454480e823b17327b2bf1d4/page/page_1/

Canada:
resources-covid19canada.hub.arcgis.com/app/82e586188b7049e1896b771cd4875815

albeit you can't drill too down, it does contain the main info (eg. vacc and hospitalization info)

Japan is a very mixed bag. www.stopcovid19.jp/#Oita
I just like how quintessentially japanese it is (biased as I really like japanese culture)
I do like how instead of a map they did the grid boxes design. Still conveys all the info that a map could and even more at a glance.

UK
the UK site has come a long way and I think now it would be a bit of tidy up, and more data. Overall it has become one of the better ones.
I think I can articulate my 2 main problem with the uk site: bit verbose not enough data.
There is a lot of data, but more quantity (time series) opposed to a lot of types of data (eg. vaccination, hospitalization by many factors, in hospital, median no of days in hospital,...).
And there are adding in a lot of nice features. Some more useful than others. Heatmaps are good, but I'm not sure average joe understands. Hope they do.

Did you see that they added Vaccination info to Healthcare tab?

Verbose/design:

1. small things like main page Cases/Deaths/... are in grey and x font size

Then the title is "People tested positive" black and a bit bigger and bold. Why can't it the other way around?

1. "The official UK Government website for data and insights on Coronavirus (COVID-19)." Could easily go into the black bar at the top

1. UK Summary and DAily updates could go in 1 line. Update date could be top right corner. That would save 4 lines. The actual data that ppl come to see would be more pronounced.

@QueenStromba

There are 52 weeks in a year so 6 months to do 26 million people at a rate of a million a week. 52 million in a year.

To be honest I'd really hope we could move more quickly than that.

@Wakeupin2022

TheSun it looks pretty but do we really need to know all that?

We get more information from the ONS on a weekly basis but I am a bit uncomfortable when Singapore list the nationalities and where infections have come from etc.

Too me it's too much info although I do find the UK dashboards a bit hard to use at times. This one is definitely prettier!

1. Yes. I prefer to have more info than less.
2. I don't see the problem with nationality info or where infection comes from.

The ONS data is something that we should have incorporated into the dashboard. Along with the NHS and PHE data.

As a designer I only ever make it hard for users to find information* if I have goal with it. That goal can be anywhere from: to steer them towards something; to want them not to find it, but have it up there so the company can say they fulfilled an obligation,.... or I want to confuse them so that they will be more likely to do what I suggest a few clicks later (think company/product setting).

In a normal year over 14m are vaccinated against flu in 2 months by the NHS with no extra help from the army not anyone else, no mass vaccination sites to help and zero service interruption. Far more were vaccinated this year in the same period because of higher uptake, despite distancing restrictions. Look for data, and when you find it, use it to remain calm and let everyone do their job.

@Sunshinegirl82
Those numbers are for flu vaccinations where the vacc can be kept in a fridge. I would think that the Pfizer one is a bit trickier -thus more time is needed- because of the -70 degrees...
idk really, just thinking out loud.

I actually think we will eventually end up vaccinating more than 1 million people a week.

If we use testing as a point of comparison, the number of processed weekly tests went up from a few tens of thousands back in March to 3 million for the previous week.

I do not think many people would have believed we could process 3 million tests a week if they had been told about it 9 months ago.

We can't forget there are 2 doses!

I think its realistic to expect things to be better at least by May / June.

A combination of vaccine, people having immunity and weather.

I do agree with sunshine that we are almost at the end of peopme complying.

I can't help but think Easter might be the limit!

That's just my thinking though. Thankfully Easter is in April this year.