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Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread

999 replies

NoGoodPunsLeft · 17/12/2020 20:09

UK govt pressers Slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots imperialcollegelondon.github.io/covid19local/#table
School statistics Attendance explore-education-statistics.service.gov.uk/find-statistics/attendance-in-education-and-early-years-settings-during-the-coronavirus-covid-19-outbreak
Modelling real number of UK infections February to date Link broken?
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHs England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
MSAO Map of English cases Link broken?
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSAO Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
CovidMessenger live update by council district in England www.covidmessenger.com/
Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, tests, ONS deaths public.tableau.com/profile/public.health.wales.health.protection#!/vizhome/RapidCOVID-19virology-Public/Headlinesummary
NI Dashboard app.powerbi.com/view?r=eyJrIjoiZGYxNjYzNmUtOTlmZS00ODAxLWE1YTEtMjA0NjZhMzlmN2JmIiwidCI6IjljOWEzMGRlLWQ4ZDctNGFhNC05NjAwLTRiZTc2MjVmZjZjNSIsImMiOjh9
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe Uk data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK read://https_www.ecdc.europa.eu/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.ecdc.europa.eu%2Fen%2Fcases-2019-ncov-eueea
Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=gbr&areas=fra&areas=esp&areas=ita&areas=deu&areas=swe&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&byDate=1&cumulative=1&logScale=1&per100K=1&values=deaths
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/3869571-Studies-corner?msgid=99913434

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22
Sunshinegirl82 · 27/12/2020 21:06

@TheSunIsStillShining

Yes which is one of the advantages of the Oxford vaccine, that it doesn't require the same level of specialised storage and can be kept in the fridge.

If Oxford is approved and the supplies are readily available it seems to me that fairly widespread vaccination of the entire population could be achieved really quite quickly based on the sorts of numbers @MRex is describing plus additional resources.

InterfectoremVulpes · 27/12/2020 21:10

What do we think of this- only a relatively small number of vaccinations need to be done to have a large effect on hospitalisation and fatality rate. If true this would mean we don't need to vaccinate "everyone" before restrictions can be lifted?

Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread
PatriciaHolm · 27/12/2020 21:11

@InterfectoremVulpes

Thanks! So that averages to over 650,000 a week by my calculations?

On average yes, but the figures just cover a 6 month block and I would expect most would be done sept to dec (i.e. before flu season starts properly) so they could be doing more a week.

My sons school had theirs at the start of December.

Indeed - as MRex alludes to, the vast majority of those are done in a couple of months. Looking at older versions of the excel on that page, more than 10m were done from 1 Sept - 30 Nov, and that's just GP data, not pharmacy or other venues. So that's easily a million a week, from all venues.
midgebabe · 27/12/2020 21:24

@InterfectoremVulpes

What do we think of this- only a relatively small number of vaccinations need to be done to have a large effect on hospitalisation and fatality rate. If true this would mean we don't need to vaccinate "everyone" before restrictions can be lifted?
There was an interesting thought I read that allowing a return to normal when the deaths start to fall could lead to an ideal breeding group for more virus mutations ( on the basis you get more mutations when you have more virus in circulation) which might make things quite dangerous?
Eyewhisker · 27/12/2020 21:27

If the vaccine is available, it should easily be possible to do more than a million a week. One million vaccinations, is one thousand venues, each doing a thousand doses. Frankly, if they use football stadiums etc, a million a day would be possible.

InterfectoremVulpes · 27/12/2020 21:34

@Eyewhisker

If the vaccine is available, it should easily be possible to do more than a million a week. One million vaccinations, is one thousand venues, each doing a thousand doses. Frankly, if they use football stadiums etc, a million a day would be possible.
If the best part of 30 million people can go to a polling station to vote in a day, there's no reason why a few million people a day can't get a vaccine if it was run in a similar way.
Truelymadlydeeplysomeonesmum · 27/12/2020 21:38

@Oaktree55

I think 1million a week from a supply/logistical viewpoint is nigh on impossible. As for restrictions will be all be T4 plus, no, but will this be allowed to circulate freely, I very much doubt it given the risks at stake.
They did over six hundred thousand first jabs in two weeks using the current fragile vaccine.

I can't see once the oxford is rolled out one million a week being an issue.

We already have the administrative system, the army have been told to be on stand by for logistics and GPs have been organising priority lists for weeks now.

The main issue that will set us back is the expected low BAME take up in cities like London.

Nationally the percentage of BAME is low enough to not make a difference with uptake. However BAME population is more the half the people in London. This so far is a hugely ignored but important issue.

PatriciaHolm · 27/12/2020 21:40

@InterfectoremVulpes

What do we think of this- only a relatively small number of vaccinations need to be done to have a large effect on hospitalisation and fatality rate. If true this would mean we don't need to vaccinate "everyone" before restrictions can be lifted?
No, we don't need to vaccinate everybody, but the issue is more complex than just looking at deaths I think.

That chart doesn't actually tell us anything about hospitalisations, the majority of which are under 85, and about 40% under 65. So whilst vaccinating the over 85s may have a big hit on deaths, it only reduces hospitalisations by around 20%. Great, but not the whole answer by a long way.

And this also doesn't address the risks of complications/long covid, for example. Until we've got round to vaccinating the clinically vulnerable, at least, there are millions of people who are at risk of long term complications if they catch Covid, not just death.

Wakeupin2022 · 27/12/2020 21:42

The main issue that will set us back is the expected low BAME take up in cities like London.

I don't think this is being ignored? Well locally at least?

Wakeupin2022 · 27/12/2020 21:46

Interesting article in the Guardian about that Swiss ski resort.

www.theguardian.com/world/2020/dec/27/hundreds-uk-tourists-flee-covid-quarantine-swiss-ski-resort-verbier

I don't condone it but I can understand it a bit more. There must be a good reason for hundred to flee and I think the response is Europe has been pretty appalling to the strain identified in UK. They were probably in quite a horrible situation.

PatriciaHolm · 27/12/2020 21:48

Another issue for maximum rollout is going to be trained staff to administer (and make sure people are asked the right questions about allergies etc, and monitored for a short time after administration). I know the NHS has made a plea for as many people with relevant experience as possible to come forward - I wonder how that's going?

www.theguardian.com/society/2020/nov/19/nhs-assembles-army-of-staff-for-mass-coronavirus-vaccinations

PatriciaHolm · 27/12/2020 21:52

@Wakeupin2022

Interesting article in the Guardian about that Swiss ski resort.

www.theguardian.com/world/2020/dec/27/hundreds-uk-tourists-flee-covid-quarantine-swiss-ski-resort-verbier

I don't condone it but I can understand it a bit more. There must be a good reason for hundred to flee and I think the response is Europe has been pretty appalling to the strain identified in UK. They were probably in quite a horrible situation.

TBH, I can't have a lot of sympathy for people who decided this Christmas was a good time to go on a ski-ing holiday. And I say that as an avid skier!
Motorina · 27/12/2020 21:54

[quote PatriciaHolm]Another issue for maximum rollout is going to be trained staff to administer (and make sure people are asked the right questions about allergies etc, and monitored for a short time after administration). I know the NHS has made a plea for as many people with relevant experience as possible to come forward - I wonder how that's going?

www.theguardian.com/society/2020/nov/19/nhs-assembles-army-of-staff-for-mass-coronavirus-vaccinations[/quote]
Anecdotally, very very well. Plenty of my colleagues have volunteered, and there are reports of the team involved working huge hours to get everyone organised and coordinated.

Bluntly, NHS clinicians are even more keen for this to be over than everyone else. We're dealing with all the same restrictions on daily joy as everyone else, our work-life balance and normal working practices have been turned upside down, we're sweating for long shifts in unwieldy PPE, we're seeing the ill up close and know we're at risk of joining them.

I don't anticipate shortage of volunteers being an issue. And, bluntly, it's not exactly difficult to teach an already trained clinician the right questions to ask or how to give the jab.

Right now, the bottle neck is vaccine supply. Once Oxford is approved then I would expect vaccination rates to sky-rocket.

Wakeupin2022 · 27/12/2020 21:56

Patricia true! But then the Swiss were determined to have open resorts much to the annoyance of the EU.........

PatriciaHolm · 27/12/2020 21:58

@Motorina thank you for that informed answer! That's good to hear.

Wakeupin2022 · 27/12/2020 21:58

Do we know how much of the Oxford vaccine we have in storage.

4 million rings a bell but I might just be pulling that number from nowhere! Need to go & have a look.

If the US & EU don't approve then it means more for us Grin

PatriciaHolm · 27/12/2020 22:00

@Wakeupin2022

Patricia true! But then the Swiss were determined to have open resorts much to the annoyance of the EU.........
Yes - thought the Swiss govt did say "for domestic tourism". Hard to police if you're letting anyone in though.

Quote from their health minister.....“We don’t want people coming from surrounding countries that are closed off and then for people to say that we are taking advantage of this situation"

planetski.eu/2020/12/04/swiss-ski-resorts-will-be-open-over-xmas/

Firefliess · 27/12/2020 22:06

Telegraph is reporting a recruitment drive for 100,000 vaccinators. If they can do 50 people a day, that's 2.5m jabs per week. 1.25m new people of course if they give two jabs each, but interestingly the article is able speculating that they may increase the time between doses, so that more people get their first one first.
See:
www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/12/27/oxford-coronavirus-vaccine-10000-medics-volunteers-recruited/?WT.mc_id=tmgliveapp_androidshare_Awc1xn9xfqvr

midgebabe · 27/12/2020 22:08

50 people a day?

Our flu clinic had appointments every 3 minutes that's 20 people a hour

InterfectoremVulpes · 27/12/2020 22:13

@midgebabe

50 people a day?

Our flu clinic had appointments every 3 minutes that's 20 people a hour

They would probably have to wipe down and sanitise between each person though.
Firefliess · 27/12/2020 22:13

I was just guessing really @midge. If they can do 20 people an hour that's 700 a week each, or 7m a week for the 10,000 of them together! WineGrin

MRex · 27/12/2020 22:14

There are also all the existing nurses, GPs, pharmacists etc who have the skills and premises, if it's Oxford. Add them to the 100k. Our GP actually does 2 minute slots, just to keep
it competitive Grin.
We've been hearing more ambulances tonight. Those who don't want it needn't have it, I'll guinea pig for them no bother.

InterfectoremVulpes · 27/12/2020 22:16

I'll have it as soon as I'm eligible.

PatriciaHolm · 27/12/2020 22:19

@Wakeupin2022

Do we know how much of the Oxford vaccine we have in storage.

4 million rings a bell but I might just be pulling that number from nowhere! Need to go & have a look.

If the US & EU don't approve then it means more for us Grin

www.ft.com/content/651be7e7-2a4e-410f-8089-b4b7e887f6e8

suggests 4m "by end of the year" ....

DecemberStar · 27/12/2020 22:26

Reporting on the alondon Ambulance Service tonight says they've been told to blue light all cases just to try and get jobs done quicker.

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