Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread

[NoGoodPunsLeft]

UK govt pressers Slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots imperialcollegelondon.github.io/covid19local/#table
School statistics Attendance explore-education-statistics.service.gov.uk/find-statistics/attendance-in-education-and-early-years-settings-during-the-coronavirus-covid-19-outbreak
Modelling real number of UK infections February to date Link broken?
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHs England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
MSAO Map of English cases Link broken?
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSAO Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
CovidMessenger live update by council district in England www.covidmessenger.com/
Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, tests, ONS deaths public.tableau.com/profile/public.health.wales.health.protection#!/vizhome/RapidCOVID-19virology-Public/Headlinesummary
NI Dashboard app.powerbi.com/view?r=eyJrIjoiZGYxNjYzNmUtOTlmZS00ODAxLWE1YTEtMjA0NjZhMzlmN2JmIiwidCI6IjljOWEzMGRlLWQ4ZDctNGFhNC05NjAwLTRiZTc2MjVmZjZjNSIsImMiOjh9
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe Uk data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK read://https_www.ecdc.europa.eu/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.ecdc.europa.eu%2Fen%2Fcases-2019-ncov-eueea
Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=gbr&areas=fra&areas=esp&areas=ita&areas=deu&areas=swe&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&byDate=1&cumulative=1&logScale=1&per100K=1&values=deaths
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/3869571-Studies-corner?msgid=99913434

We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these

We just have to wait and see.

Some people look for the worst as they will. What can you do. Others do just that - wait and see.

With schools due back in a week we could really do with up to date figures! Guess even Tuesday might still be lower as it'll be picking up weekend and bank holiday cases

@QueenStromba quote from the article I linked to:

"More than 21 days after their first dose, ten participants were hospitalised due to COVID-19 (defined as WHO clinical progression score ≥4), two of whom were assessed as having severe COVID-19 (WHO score ≥6), including one fatal case. All ten cases were in the control group"

I will be honest and say I don't know enough about medical statistics to know if this is a statistically significant outcome, but it seems really reassuring to me.

The one query in my mind is that some cases of long covid follow mild initial disease. I'm young(ish!) - I'm not scared of dying of covid. I am scared of long covid, particularly as I run, and I would be devastated if that were impaired. I see nothing in this article about protection against long covid. Which is fair enough, given the time between vaccination and publication.

@DecemberStar

People in another thread were saying Amazon collections and deliveries of tests were still happening? Or should that just be deliveries, am not sure how postal test system works?

Surely the biggest cause of lowere figures is lack of reporting by the 3 smaller nations as explained upthread.

Amazon deliver them. Courier collection exists but they don't make it the easy option so I've no idea if it's Amazon or not - anyone else probably wouldn't be collecting.

@DecemberStar

People in another thread were saying Amazon collections and deliveries of tests were still happening? Or should that just be deliveries, am not sure how postal test system works?

Surely the biggest cause of lowere figures is lack of reporting by the 3 smaller nations as explained upthread.

Today we have data from England, Wales and Scotland for cases, only missing NI, which is unlikely to be more than 1,000.

The drop is, I think, explained by (an expected) considerable drop in people going for tests on 24/25/26. Who will go for tests over the next few days....

On the news, London ambulance saying that it had 8000 calls yesterday. One of the busiest days in it's history, and 50% up on what they woudl expect. No statement that those calls are covid related, but one wonders what else they might be.

I think the reality is covid case numbers will be artificially suppressed by the holiday (a combination in delays in reporting, and people not wanting/being able to access a test on christmas day), but the number of people being ill enough to need an ambulance will not be as significantly impacted by the holiday.

That, in combination with Cardiff Hospital asking for volunteers to help prone patients, paints a very worrying picture of an NHS under profound pressure. Locally (East Anglia) both the hospitals I work in have cancelled all routine surgery.

Regardless of the details of the day to day numbers - and I appreciate this is a numbers thread - the overall picture is worrying.

From the above linked lancet article.
I found a couple of thing I either don't understand (wouldn't be the first time) or just don't make sense.

1. They have changed the study methodology at one point yet not restarted the trials. This might be a common thing, but it doesn't instill confidence

1. the doses were given at totally random time determined by when the manufacturing could be done and not by when they think it would be the best to follow up. This to me seems very un-scientific.

1. efficacy ranges are so varied in table 2 that it makes me question the whole thing.

This whole study is very hard to make sense of. Someone said messy.... yeah, quite a bit... :(

We need to trust these companies with our lives -quite literally- and this doesn't help.

also, I don't get why these trials don't register other comorbidities than just a few? Why would it hurt to create an appendix which lists all? I'm sure that there are more than the 3-4 with this many ppl in a study (and this goes for all studies, nit just this)

There is no point speculating on the "detail" of the Oxford vaccine until we actually have the details, which we don't. The data released so far is limited and we know that a significant amount of additional data has now been handed to the regulator.

Once the MHRA have reached their decision and we know more then there can be more meaningful discussion. That said I know the limits of my own abilities and feel pretty confident that the MHRA are better placed to assess the data than I (or the majority of the rest of the population) can.

Regarding Royal Mail test deliveries - I ordered 23rd, received 24th, put in priority postbox 26th and it reached its destination that night. They weren’t being collected on Christmas Day and had an earlier collection cut off in Boxing Day.

I would love to agree with you @Sunshinegirl82
The last many months have unfortunately showed that the UK has placed economy, posing and needs of the wealthy above everything. And however much I'd like to stay positive and believe in the MHRA I can easily imagine a scenario where they are being pressured into a decision that is not based on science.

I hear a lot of noise around "70% efficacy is better than nothing" (fair enough), but it also doesn't boost my confidence - because it signals that approving something sub-par is better than not approving it. There is logic in it I can see that, but in order to have massive vaccine uptake we need what we would have needed all along:
clear, concise communication of strategies that are driven by transparent scientific research and knowledge.

Could you reassure me that so far this is what has been driving things in this country?

------
I'm not being negative, I just believe that every gov should be very transparent in normal times and 10 times more so now.
Even if en masse ppl don't understand, the reasoning, logic should e there to scrutinize for those who are interested. To me this is a fundamental part of democracy.

@MarshaBradyo their share price has tanked. I’m neither optimistic nor pessimistic more a realist based on facts. Which is why I think out Government has a lot to answer for as expectation management is one thing they haven’t done which is why the majority find this so hard. One failed promise to the next.

Oak yes I can see you think that way. Your world view is not for me. ADE? That was the last scare iirc posted about a lot.

I’m with Sunshine and every other sensible poster saying let MRHA decide and stop trying to second guess on very little. Let’s leave it there as we’ll not agree.

It one person’s ‘realism’ is another’s looking for the worst at all times. Best just to avoid each other imo. Too irritating

@MarshaBradyo huh? The ADE comment was in response to another poster where I said there hasn’t been concern. As for Oxford the comments I’ve made are there for the reading for anyone who cares to google it. Your unfounded optimism over the past year hasn’t proved correct. This isn’t the zombie apocalypse but rational thinking not blind optimism is perhaps better suited for the current situation. That’s my point. If the public were armed with facts not false promises maybe we’d handle this situation better.

Your unfounded doom hasn’t proven correct in the least. Do you forget all those ADE posts you made early on? So much pessimism.

Like I say you live in your head - not for me. I’m not handling it any worse than anyone else. There are better threads for me though, it’s true. Not so pessimistic. Bar a few other sensible people of course on here.

It's worth remember that, pre-Pfizer, Fauci was saying that a vaccine with 50% efficacy was enough to be useful. (Source: www.cnbc.com/2020/08/07/coronavirus-vaccine-dr-fauci-says-chances-of-it-being-highly-effective-is-not-great.html)

Setting aside the messiness, it's not that the Oxford results are bad. It's that Pfizer is so superb that pretty much anything would look bad in comparison.

I agree with those who say that the MHRA are best placed to weigh up all the data, including anything new since the Oxford research was published in the Lancet. I'm certainly not able to do so. Covid has been a swift learning curve for me in understanding medical research (silver lining?) but I'm well aware I lack the academic training to do so properly.

Bottom line for me: if the MHRA approve it I'll happily stick my arm out and be grateful.

@MarshaBradyo I suggest you stick to the good news threads then. They’ll keep you happy. Honestly aren’t we all grown adults?? Can some really not handle reality???

Ok good so we nearly all agree to leave it to MRHA? Tg for that.

I just can’t deal with your reality Oak. And luckily I don’t have to! It’s too much. But you carry on being you.

There are others who agree that the regulatory body is the best fit. So I’ll stay whilst they do.

@MarshaBradyo I’m not sure exactly what living in my head means??? I follow science which evolves daily and yes ADE was discussed at one point (I think I mentioned once??)

I find it amazing people rely so much on here. It’s anonymous no one knows how credible any posts are. Our country though is suffering from a huge problem with communication and over promising.

I mean I don’t think as you do and that’s fine. Let it go.

I’ll read the more sensible posts and you can ignore mine. Ok?

@MarshaBradyo I think you’ll find you were the one (still are) living outside reality. Honestly it seems personal but literally since last Spring you’ve picked up those of us taking sense about longevity of this, reality of this etc etc. Maybe you struggle more than most I don’t know but it grates a bit when for a year you’ve done nothing but pull those being realistic down. Hey whatever gets you through it.

Oak you don’t know what I think about the longevity you are posting based on nothing.

Let it go

I don’t think I have ever said it would be over quickly

So it’s not a surprise now. You are pretty much incorrect

In fact I remember quoting Merkel on the likelihood of the high proportion who would get it. This was ages ago, when she said it. I recall a conversation with a vg poster about the same happening here.