Will those blaming schools for the rise in cases admit they were wrong?

[notevenat20]

R is now around 0.71 and the case numbers are dropping rapidly (hooray!). It seems obvious this huge improvement has been caused by the lockdown. But schools were open the whole time. It's also therefore clear that schools cannot have been the main cause of the second wave.

I think like Nancydowns the virus was slowing anyway.

I'm curious. In your, clearly, expert opinions, what makes the "virus slow down"?

middleager I disagree I think it is exactly that kind of hyperbolic statements that have little stats to back them up that actually detracts from the argument.

Schools spread it and the problem is as Sansashark eloquently puts it what was the point of all of this lockdown and sacrifice if the main driver is still out - how best can those numbers of (what the US) would call High Schoolers (Year 9 and above) be controlled whilst still maintaining the education that they need and protecting their mental health

Looking at what is happening in the States, I'm also interested in why people think the virus is "slowing down".

@Porcupineinwaiting

Looking at what is happening in the States, I'm also interested in why people think the virus is "slowing down".

All I can think of is it’s wishful thinking. To accept that the only reason cases are successfully dropping now is because of the restrictions in place is also realising that we are with these restrictions for a long time to come yet.

I think people are "hoping" it's slowing down, just as as early as May/June people were "hoping" it was becoming less deadly through a mutation, because as more is known about it, places are better prepared and have better techniques to deal with it, so on average "we" are doing better.

I also noticed that very quickly after lockdown #2 started people were declaring "we've turned a corner; cases are definitely dropping" when they were at best levelling off, and probably not even that.

There is an aspect of hope, an aspect of not wanting to know the reality, and an aspect of not understanding numbers.
Which means that now people are saying "wow, numbers are really, dropping-only 12k today, lockdown isn't necessary" when at the end of September people were saying "goodness, over 5k".

@Porcupineinwaiting

Looking at what is happening in the States, I'm also interested in why people think the virus is "slowing down".

It’s not slowing down as such as it implies it would happen regardless of restrictions

We do have a reduction in numbers however due to lockdown, down 30%

There may be some transmission interruption from immunity too - not herd immunity obviously but each immune person becomes a block in the chain.

Brace yourself for lots of anec-data about how they're falling like flies at their local secondary school
Anecdata not really needed when "The latest official figures for overall attendance in England show 22% of pupils in secondary schools were absent last Thursday."

www.bbc.co.uk/news/amp/education-55145313

Education has been "completely disrupted" by the sheer scale of Covid absences in some schools in some areas, Ofsted regional bosses have warned.

The regional directors for North-West England and the West Midlands say the impact of rules around self-isolation has significantly impacted attendance.

They highlight areas where hundreds of pupils are absent and self-isolating at a time, some again and again.

Ofsted says some areas will have seen relatively little impact this term.

The latest official figures for overall attendance in England show 22% of pupils in secondary schools were absent last Thursday.

This was the same as the previous week, when figures also showed at least some pupils being sent home in 75% of schools.

Yup, here's our local data, with attendance at just over 76 per cent a week ago (dread to think what this week's is like).
My one son in Gcse years had repeated isolations amounting to more time out than in since Sept and my other in Gcse years had been off for a month.
Oh and a nice dose of Covid for the one who has missed a total 7 weeks in school since September.

www.birminghammail.co.uk/news/midlands-news/record-30000-birmingham-kids-school-19318049

Almost 29,000 isolating in my city, one in four.
This was the 20th and as somebody who also works with 20 schools too, I can assure you that it's worsened since then.

@notevenat20

R is now around 0.71 and the case numbers are dropping rapidly (hooray!). It seems obvious this huge improvement has been caused by the lockdown. But schools were open the whole time. It's also therefore clear that schools cannot have been the main cause of the second wave.

hahahahaha

% posiitve going UP in schools and DOWN in the community.

It is very strongly suggests that transmission IS happening in schools.

None ever said that schools were the ONLY cause of the second wave.

But a massive contributor, yes.

Remind me again, why would we WANT schools to be a hotbed of a new and poorly understood pathogen against which we have no intention of vaccinating our young people?

22% absence is still better then the 100% absence of the last term or the 50-60% absence if blended learning was implemented. Both my children’s school last week had almost 100% attendance.

@stairway

22% absence is still better then the 100% absence of the last term or the 50-60% absence if blended learning was implemented. Both my children’s school last week had almost 100% attendance.

Is it though? When it comes to continuity the current method is probably the worst way for education.

Our local secondary school has now moved to blended learning. Half of each class in for a block of 5 school days with set work for when they are at home. Parents, pupils and staff all know what is happening each week and there is much less chance of them having to go off it also allows for distancing in class.

Whereas previous nobody knew from one day to the next what was happening. Of course there is still an element of this but much less so.

The biggest issue in education this year is going to be the patchy nature of the school year and the fact that some areas/schools are going to be hit so hard compared to others

The stop start repeated self isolations is so incredibly disruptive for all concerned.

Sirzy that sounds sensible. I wish we had that here. There's not a week now when we haven't had a call or email with either self isolations or disruption. The impact is huge on these children, staff, families.

Sirzy is it state school in England? Is there a mechanism that lets the school decide to do it or does the LA?

I had thought you needed to be in a higher education tier for rota.

Is everyone ok with youngest years at home and is there any contact in week off. When someone is a positive are they still classed as contacts?

Lots of questions, I know but am interested, first time I’ve seen it on here

We’ve had 100% time up to now but if and when it gets bad I’d prefer to switch to remote, two weeks out then back in two weeks, which is also the plan from school iirc (secondary).

No idea on permission side of thing but two of the three local high schools are on a rota system. The third has everyone in in theory but are having a lot of burst bubbles meaning they aren’t all in anyway

Our local secondary school has now closed for Christmas. So many year groups off isolating. The Head has had to get permission from the DfE, PHE and local council to do this according to their parents letter.

Now only open to key worker children. Considering we are still in lockdown then it is presumably the schools that have caused the rise in cases, despite OPs declaration.

Fred closed or non kw doing remote learning?

Blended learning is fine as a temporary measure for schools that have been particularly hard hit but certainly not for most schools. Neither of my children have missed any schooling this term.

Just admit it schools aren't safe- Michael Rosen.

Of course, there is a big difference between areas.

But we aren't even into flu season yet. So the most interesting period is yet to come.

One of our schools, 7 cases since Friday in students (secondary).

@MarshaBradyo

Sirzy is it state school in England? Is there a mechanism that lets the school decide to do it or does the LA?

I had thought you needed to be in a higher education tier for rota.

Is everyone ok with youngest years at home and is there any contact in week off. When someone is a positive are they still classed as contacts?

Lots of questions, I know but am interested, first time I’ve seen it on here

There is a school in Bexley that has been on a Rota system and about 6 or so other schools there have multiple year groups and many staff out and are considering it (I used to teach in Bexley). It’s interesting that Bexley was in the bottom 5 London boroughs for cases and is now the second highest London Borough for cases...

That should say ‘cases before lockdown and now second highest...’
Not sure why my phone deleted that!

"Neither of my children have missed any schooling this term"

I find this view (expressed similarly by quite a few posters) quite astoundingly short-sighted (not to mention selfish). Time after time on here (and in RL) we are reading of areas that had very few cases a week or two back, yet are now swamped. Surely the preventative measures should be taken now, particularly where numbers are lower, in order to prevent what others are experiencing.
Why would you want to wait until Covid is running rampant though your child's school before you're prepared to take precautions?