Will those blaming schools for the rise in cases admit they were wrong?

[notevenat20]

R is now around 0.71 and the case numbers are dropping rapidly (hooray!). It seems obvious this huge improvement has been caused by the lockdown. But schools were open the whole time. It's also therefore clear that schools cannot have been the main cause of the second wave.

That was why I was wondering whether school testing data from Liverpool had been released anywhere, but if it has I can't find it.

I haven't read of many people that actually want schools closed. Lots of us teaching staff want schools safer - there is a big difference.

Walkaround
Is your school very small, @Baaaahhhhh, or are you not a teensy bit suspicious that only 3 confirmed cases since September either means that teachers and children at your school live in a miraculous bubble where cases are higher in the rest of the community than the school itself; or there is likely more covid currently circulating around the school than you think?

There are not more cases in school, we get a weekly update from HT. The school is also really well setup. Miraculous bubble, possibly. Our local case rate is low, but also if you take out infections from the university, the hospital, and several care homes, you actually don't have much additional community transmission at all. Our secondary school is fairly small 1,000 pupils, but other much larger local schools are also not having many issues. Geographically lucky I guess.

Taking the r number across England isn't helpful. In some areas, cases are falling drastically. In others, they are stable. In others, they are still rising.

In some areas, many secondary schools are effectively shut or on a rota system because of staff shortages, or kids isolating.

FWIW @Baaaahhhhh I teach in a rural secondary school in an area with low cases and we have had

@notevenat20

Might be 0.2 if schools were closed though? How about that ?

What puzzles me is that instead of looking to see why sone schools have few isolating whilst others merrily send whole year groups home. In my school there has been one ONE member of staff positive this term, one close contact of that teacher isolated s proved negative. TWO positive cases only in children, only one of those symptomatic. Where they have been suspected cases only close contacts in searing plan have had to isolate. The school is not breaking or bending the rules, they wouldn’t dareDo it would seem that those who gung-ho dispatch whole year groups could learn better management from others.
We have windows open all the time -kids and staff just wear layers rather than whinge about the cold.No as pace to be 2m distance from pupils, or nonsense about ‘taped off’ rectangles. Masks in corridors for changeover, not at river times. Dining hall open as usual but year groups queue staggered, tho no blending between each.
Medium sized state secondary.

Might be 0.2 if schools were closed though? How about that ?

It's a theory :)

Taking the r number across England isn't helpful. In some areas, cases are falling drastically. In others, they are stable. In others, they are still rising.

Very few areas having rising numbers these days. See e.g. www.covidmessenger.com/coronavirusliveupdate/

i dont agree with op,
the spread was through the education settings.
it came out the other side

Might be 0.2 if schools were closed though? How about that ?

It is worth asking how much lower R would be if schools were shut as well. The easiest way to do that is to look at lockdown 1 where they were shut. I don't remember what R was but I feel it was about 0.7 maybe ?

@notevenat20

Might be 0.2 if schools were closed though? How about that ?

It is worth asking how much lower R would be if schools were shut as well. The easiest way to do that is to look at lockdown 1 where they were shut. I don't remember what R was but I feel it was about 0.7 maybe ?

The rate at this time fell but as we don't know what from, we can't say how quickly or how effectively it fell.

I'm in favour of getting it down fast and if that takes a short full lockdown initially, so be it. Our cases and deaths were, and are, a world shame.

[quote notevenat20]Taking the r number across England isn't helpful. In some areas, cases are falling drastically. In others, they are stable. In others, they are still rising.

Very few areas having rising numbers these days. See e.g. www.covidmessenger.com/coronavirusliveupdate/[/quote]
We're one of the areas that is rising.

I think from the local data that the rise is being driven by schools here. We have 3 large secondaries. In the last week, one has closed, a second has now closed half of the years (one at at time, so may well increase) and the third is in a similar position.
Three weeks ago the cases in all three schools could almost have been counted on the fingers on both hands, certainly hands and feet.

The typical people round here that are currently getting positive tests are parents and children.
Earlier in the outbreak it was care homes and generally older people.

@notevenat20

Might be 0.2 if schools were closed though? How about that ?

It is worth asking how much lower R would be if schools were shut as well. The easiest way to do that is to look at lockdown 1 where they were shut. I don't remember what R was but I feel it was about 0.7 maybe ?

Could be useful comparison.

Obviously we can shut more and get it lower if we ignore large negative impact. But on balance of harm not schools.

Surely one of the big issues is whether nhs is overwhelmed? R number isn’t always going to be a reflection of this because numbers of cases go up v quickly but people are hospitalised for much longer and bed space takes a longer time to get back to baseline (also high cases but low r number still means more infected people). Add into that the increase of other acute conditions (eg flu, pneumonia) over the winter seasons.

Schools making individual decisions is not sensible. It should be a public health decision based on local case rate, local hospital bed/icu availability, demographic (eg multiple risk factors so higher risk of hospitalization if covid spreads vs benefit to children of school in areas of deprivation) and school set-up (eg space in classrooms etc).

[quote SansaSnark]Taking the r number across England isn't helpful. In some areas, cases are falling drastically. In others, they are stable. In others, they are still rising.

In some areas, many secondary schools are effectively shut or on a rota system because of staff shortages, or kids isolating.

FWIW @Baaaahhhhh I teach in a rural secondary school in an area with low cases and we have had

Do it would seem that those who gung-ho dispatch whole year groups could learn better management from others.
See, it’s comments like this that seem very suspicious because as a teacher, you should know schools themselves don’t make the decisions...

We have windows open all the time -kids and staff just wear layers rather than whinge about the cold.No as pace to be 2m distance from pupils, or nonsense about ‘taped off’ rectangles. Masks in corridors for changeover, not at river times. Dining hall open as usual but year groups queue staggered, tho no blending between each.
Medium sized state secondary.

Same to all of the above (although probably classed as a large secondary.)
No Staffroom as well as this is currently converted into a classroom.
I tested positive for Covid yesterday and we have positive cases in 5 year groups currently, just under 10 in total. London Borough.
It’s not just about the systems in place as you keep repeating.

My town was tier 1.

Suddenly the cases rose dramatically a week into lockdown and continued to go from 10-15 a day to 30-40.

In lockdown.

I then discovered that 2/3 of those cases came from 2 local secondary schools and one of those had to close due to so many staff actually off with COVID and not just isolating. Then magenta began to test their children and discovered how many had it.

We are now back down to 10-15 a day and going into tier 2.

I don't believe he schools are that much of a contributing factor.

Mind you I'm not sure what is. I don't think lockdown is either. I think like Nancydowns the virus was slowing anyway.

Cases falling in every age group except secondary school students.

I think it is really likely that as lockdown eases and asymptomatic or pre-symptomatuc students are out in the community more, we will see cases go back up - which kind of makes the sacrifices of lockdown pointless, no?

[quote notevenat20]Taking the r number across England isn't helpful. In some areas, cases are falling drastically. In others, they are stable. In others, they are still rising.

Very few areas having rising numbers these days. See e.g. www.covidmessenger.com/coronavirusliveupdate/[/quote]
I think this is still too large scale. As a county, our cases/r rate is falling, but there are a few towns/areas where cases have risen drastically and one can assume the r is high.

These are also towns with badly affected schools. Now, obviously this does not prove cause and effect, but I think it is too symplistic to look at the data and say "oh most places are OK". I think we need to be considering this on a much more local level.

When schools have been forced to close, eg by staff absence cases in the town seem to fall really quickly.

@CallmeAngelinaof course the figures will show a rise in school children as they are the only ones that have been mixing during lockdown. Even with this cases are now on a very sharp decline.

Not really. Lots of places are still open.

O and more anecdata my year 3 child has just been sent home for the second time this lockdown. Bit of a worry with you have an ecv dh and are both the wrong side of 50.
This is old tier 1 and tier super low cases locally but tier 2 due to other areas.

Michael Rosen nails it:

www.theguardian.com/education/2020/dec/01/dear-gavin-williamson-schools-spread-covid-life-or-death-for-parents-michael-rosen

We are told it spreads most if you are indoors and there is little ventilation. So basically having speople round to your house and chatting to them for hours is a disaster. Restaurants and pubs are close behind.
Your first sentence seems similar to school classrooms as some have windows which won't open op.

@Northernsoulgirl45

We are told it spreads most if you are indoors and there is little ventilation. So basically having speople round to your house and chatting to them for hours is a disaster. Restaurants and pubs are close behind. Your first sentence seems similar to school classrooms as some have windows which won't open op.

Yes. That is why my local schools require students to wear masks during class.