Will those blaming schools for the rise in cases admit they were wrong?

[notevenat20]

R is now around 0.71 and the case numbers are dropping rapidly (hooray!). It seems obvious this huge improvement has been caused by the lockdown. But schools were open the whole time. It's also therefore clear that schools cannot have been the main cause of the second wave.

@notevenat20

The government figure is at it stands correct as from 27th November The OP’s estimate is for a short period two weeks before.

This is the wrong way round. My figure, which is in fact Imperial's figure, is for a short period since the lockdown took effect up to the present day. So it is more recent than the higher figure.

Ok thanks for explaining

Still sounds good

@notevenat20

The government figure is at it stands correct as from 27th November The OP’s estimate is for a short period two weeks before.

This is the wrong way round. My figure, which is in fact Imperial's figure, is for a short period since the lockdown took effect up to the present day. So it is more recent than the higher figure.

No it isn’t. Read the study again!

Schools where I live (south east) have been really struggling. 2 local primary schools and 3 secondary schools have had to close completely. My nephew’s grammar school has been closed for two weeks due to 57 pupils testing positive and 7 teachers.

Very few cases in my kids schools. Secondary, 4 cases since September - 1 over half term, other three a set of siblings and their best friend. No school spread at all. Yes I know, I am good friends with the head, and it's a small village - the grapevine starts twanging with the slightest gossip. Not a single case in the primary school at all. Very unfair to close those schools don't you think?

REACT-1 is a repeated cross-sectional survey of SARS-CoV-2 swab-positivity in random samples of the population of England. The current period of data collection (round 7) commenced on 13th November 2020 and we report interim results here for swabs collected up to and including 24th November 2020.

Conclusion
Three weeks into the second national lockdown in England there has been a ~30% proportionate reduction in prevalence overall, with greater reductions in the North.

We all have COVID at the moment. We got it from DS who got it from another student at school.

His class teacher just tested positive too.

Nearly every local secondary school has closed in the last two weeks. We have a high rate of it in this area.

Tell me again how schools aew not passing on the virus.

Not a, teacher but I could do without this virus brought into my home by my school attending son.

But I'd like to know why the case numbers in school children dropped even more over half term and rose again as soon as schools opened?

Because children didn't take tests over half term because they didn't want to have to self isolate and miss their holiday?

Below sounds very current doesn’t it?

Conclusion Three weeks into the second national lockdown in England there has been a ~30% proportionate reduction in prevalence overall, with greater reductions in the North.

Yes, and we can see from the graph I keep pasting that that rate of reduction is still happening today. I have just extrapolated using the date from the dashboard.

Actually, ignore that post. It doesn't add anything.

Tell me again how schools aew not passing on the virus.

It's a question of degree. Everyone agrees that the virus can be transmitted in schools. The question is, can we dramatically reduce the number of cases without closing schools and the answer seems to be yes.

Why do some people feel the need to pretend that schools are not contributing to the spread of covid? I don’t understand it.

I say that as someone who really wants schools to stay open as well. Yes schools should be the last to close but each activity where people gather closely will inevitably assist with the spread of covid.

@Whiskyinajar

We all have COVID at the moment. We got it from DS who got it from another student at school.

His class teacher just tested positive too.

Nearly every local secondary school has closed in the last two weeks. We have a high rate of it in this area.

Tell me again how schools aew not passing on the virus.

Not a, teacher but I could do without this virus brought into my home by my school attending son.

This is us, only we are still waiting to see if we all catch it too.

You're not in Birmingham/West Mids are you by any chance? It's woeful here.

Our cases were mainly before lockdown, just before half term.

3 form intake infant school.

2/3rd of staff ended up testing positive, several parents and a small number of the children - mostly not tested as didn't have the main 3 symptoms.

All 9 classes have had to close once. One class is now on its second SI period.

Is it not the case that the infection numbers in school aged children are still rising, although the graphs show a dip over half term?

I don't want schools closed. I don't know any teaching/school staff who does. I, and many others I know, would prefer schools to be much safer though and for the Government to acknowledge that they currently aren't.

www.gov.scot/news/coronavirus-covid-19-in-schools/

These papers are worth reading. Maybe it's because we are wearing masks in corridors and common areas and secondary classrooms.

@RedskyAtnight

But I'd like to know why the case numbers in school children dropped even more over half term and rose again as soon as schools opened?

Because children didn't take tests over half term because they didn't want to have to self isolate and miss their holiday?

That would make more sense for the week before too though - to avoid all of half term.

I caught Covid almost certainly from school.

@MillieEpple

I always thought the point was we could shut down the economy and keep schools or shut down schools and keep the economy and the end result would be much the same but we couldnt do both. Ultimatley cases are still spreading in the bit we kept open and when we open up the other bits it will spread there too.

I agree. We are choosing one thing over the other and at the moment it's schools. The r isn't what you say, though, not by a long shot. We are plateauing

@helpfulperson

www.gov.scot/news/coronavirus-covid-19-in-schools/

These papers are worth reading. Maybe it's because we are wearing masks in corridors and common areas and secondary classrooms.

Thank you. That report’s focus is on the educational advantages of children being in school (which I agree with). I am still intrigued as to what they are using for their Covid related illness data from schools because as you can see from my attachment, the school SIMs code for Covid related illness is 7 and I don’t know any school using the bottom three codes-just X or I and if I (which my school uses for Covid related illness) there is no way to distinguish between this and another illness. No one on govt seems to be transparent in their data. Unlike what many believe, I would be happy to be proven wrong

The r isn't what you say, though, not by a long shot. We are plateauing

How can you say that? 30% reduction in a week is not a plateau.

Given that any data that is published contains very little information about what is actually going on in schools, the premise in your title is flawed.

Why do some people feel the need to pretend that schools are not contributing to the spread of covid? I don’t understand it.

I don't think the question is "does having schools open full time for all pupils contribute to the spread of covid?" because unless you're in an irrational state of denial the answer to that is clearly yes. Before the lockdown, there was a question as to whether schools contributed so strongly to the spread that it would be impossible to reduce the total number of active cases while schools remained open, even if everything else was shut. A lot of people thought that was the case, but it's now been shown not to be so. That is the point OP was making.

Now the current situation raises a new question, namely, given that shutting schools nationally would almost certainly reduce the infection rate even faster, is it worth doing so considering the many other disadvantages it would bring? The answer depends on just how much transmission is happening in schools (as well as other factors, like how long we can afford to continue keeping hospitality closed), which is why people are chipping in with anecdata about their own or their children's schools to support whichever view they hold. Ultimately though, none of us have a great picture of what's happening nationally because (as far as I know) the data on the rate of transmission within schools across the country hasn't been released. It probably doesn't even exist, given how few schools have had mass testing available and the difficulty in determining for certain where any one person picked up the virus. So really we're all just guessing based on personal experience, and if someone's personal experience is that their/their children's school hasn't been badly hit, that's going to colour their view (and vice versa).

Sorry, I didn't actually mean to quote you Florelei because I went off on a massive tangent and didn't answer the question However, I think a big part of the reason some people are so resistant to any suggestion that schools aren't safe is that they had a horrendous time last time around, when the schools were closed for months, and they're so desperate not to be put in that position again that now they're not willing to concede any ground at all. It's not a rational position but I understand it (and have to fight the impulse myself sometimes tbh).

Epidemiologist on news just said cases are rising in school age children and falling in all other age groups.

@psychomath

It probably doesn't even exist

It doesn't exist as the government refuses to actively test in schools and will only test symptomatic cases.