Will those blaming schools for the rise in cases admit they were wrong?

[notevenat20]

R is now around 0.71 and the case numbers are dropping rapidly (hooray!). It seems obvious this huge improvement has been caused by the lockdown. But schools were open the whole time. It's also therefore clear that schools cannot have been the main cause of the second wave.

How do you know? The schools don’t tell parents anything unless it affects their year groups. And the kids don’t know.

Well I guess this depends on your school! We've been informed about every positive case in both students and staff. The school doesn't give details just "a student in Year 8" but the names of the infected children are all over social media pretty much at once.

Which is why the school is telling everyone. Because they would rather parents have an "official" record of positive cases, rather than a "gossip and speculation passed round social media" one.

Well we don't all live in London here in the Northwest my son's secondary school has had cases throughout the school and throughout the term ,and my son has had to self isolate twice so far ,several bubbles have had to close in my youngest son, SEN school, although he hasn't been affected so far .

@RedskyAtnight we get a text from primary every time a dc, family member or staff member has a test (it’s bonkers). So far one positive and that was a staff member in the office with no contact with dc.

@notevenat20

R is now around 0.71 and the case numbers are dropping rapidly (hooray!). It seems obvious this huge improvement has been caused by the lockdown. But schools were open the whole time. It's also therefore clear that schools cannot have been the main cause of the second wave.

Surely that just means if schools had been closed too then the r number would have been even lower. Also don’t forget we’ve had lots of kids absent from school (mine are off for 14 days again for the third time, I am in West Yorkshire so a tier 3 area) and half term holidays which will have all contributed.

I’m not for or against school closures and I’m not a teacher, however I am wanting the government to do whatever it takes to get this virus under control and the fact that our local large secondary school and college had 40 teachers absent just a few weeks ago says to me something needs to be done. If cases in schools could be reduced too, then I think the r number and case/death rates would dramatically drop.
I read in the news that a third national lockdown may happen if cases start to rise again after Christmas and this just deflated me.

Until the vaccine is rolled out (hopefully won’t be too long) something needs to change in areas such as ours where schools have too many cases amongst staff and students. No idea what, perhaps the older secondary school kids should participate in blended learning more and also be encouraged to wear masks in lessons. This may just buy us some time and prevent another lockdown after Christmas

is not 0.71. What are you on about?

Our school has had 4 bubbles out, one of the nearby secondaries has 26 staff out, and a bubble of 90 at the attached primary out, and another local secondary has closed completely, various other local schools have whole year groups or bubbles out. In the Midlands. I read that the main places for contact are supermarkets, secondaries then primaries. I have not wish to home school DS again but it definitely seems like school is a major cause of spread.

The only thing I'm 100% confident of is that no-one is really going to know the ins and outs of this virus until well after it has subsided.

@starrynight19

Cases still rising in children. Five positive cases in my primary school including myself who tested positive today. I have been isolating since the first case so mine certainly came from school. Sadly this isn’t a narrative it’s my life

I hope you are doing ok. Best advice I can give is DO NOTHING even if you feel well enough to be up doing things. Keep drinking plenty and take regular paracetamol if you have any temps. Sleep propped up if you have a cough.

I am coming out the other side of it and those are the things I wish I had known. Take care

@TheEmojiFormerlyKnownAsPrince, because our school specifically told us they were the first cases.

@MillieEpple

And when its risen to high enough levels in children we are going to send them all to their great nans for christmas and take them to the pub for a treat.

You can if you want, I won't be. It has been very clear that easing of restrictions over Christmas is an option, not a directive

Thank you PrivateD00r that’s very kind of you

The Scottish Government paper on this makes interesting reading. That along with the fact that we have no social distancing for under 12s so hugging granny is fine and this doesn't seem to be causing huge problems.

I am firmly convinced there is something different about how covid behaves in children.

There are a lot of DCs isolating because they have symptoms - sore throat, headache etc - but few seem to test positive for covid. I don't think schools are a big transmission point either.

They may have just informed you if the first cases. As they do. Then they stop.

I live in a big city. All the secondaries and 68% of primaries have had at least one case. Most much much more.

Average of 250 kids isolating in my school every day.

@WeeMadArthur

Our school has had 4 bubbles out, one of the nearby secondaries has 26 staff out, and a bubble of 90 at the attached primary out, and another local secondary has closed completely, various other local schools have whole year groups or bubbles out. In the Midlands. I read that the main places for contact are supermarkets, secondaries then primaries. I have not wish to home school DS again but it definitely seems like school is a major cause of spread.

No, that is twisting the data. Most people who tested positive were in a supermarket in the previous 48 hours, that does not mean they contracted it there. Don't you think most people who don't have the virus could also say the same, that they were in a shop or school in the previous 48 hours?

Not sure where that is from OP because I've just googled UK R number 0.71 and it's brought up some regional numbers.

The government page for the R number and growth says that R is 0.9-1

www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk

OP you put 30 pupils in a room with no masks, sitting shoulder to shoulder for hours each day. Said children then go on buses, mixing with all year groups. Not much mask wearing going on as they are with their friends who they’ve been all day with without masks. And then they meet up after school, sometimes sleepovers etc because of course they are in the same bubble anyway.

And you still don’t think schools are the main cause?

If the schools had closed, then maybe cases would of dropped earlier.
Bubbles are continuously closing in our primary school, its happening to often now, my child caught it from school.
So yes I do think schools have played a big part and should of closed, and still should shut till Christmas.

Not true in my son's secondary school @Mintjulia my son has had to isolate twice so far due to being in close contact with positive cases this is the case throughout the school,my son has had no symptoms btw

My children’s primary school has had 6 bubbles closed since September. There has only been 2 children tested positive, the others were staff.
I’ve also heard of no other children or parents becoming positive from the exposure whilst bubbles have been closed so to me the risk of primary schools being open seems minimal. Sadly I know of a few children who have been removed from school as it is deemed too risky despite the child and parents not being vulnerable which to me will be a huge detriment to the child.
The plan is once vaccinated they will return but possibly to another school if their place has been reallocated.

Not sure where that is from OP because I've just googled UK R number 0.71 and it's brought up some regional numbers.

Three in four secondary schools have infections.

Looking logically: fewer people going out so not sharing buses with school children. More children being collected by furloughed parents so not hanging about shops/ supermarkets etc. So no, you’re wrong, schools are still responsible for a significant number of infections.

And you still don’t think schools are the main cause?

Yes that's right. Turns out that if you close pubs and restaurants and stop people from mixing indoors but keep schools open, the infection rate plummets.

This wasn't obvious beforehand but the evidence is right in front of us. Not everything that is intuitive is true.

OP why not link to what you're posting? People are asking for a source, and an explanation of why this data differs so much from the government data, not little cut and paste efforts.