Government denial over schools issues will cause deaths this Christmas

[noblegiraffe]

I just can't get my head around how utterly crazy the government Christmas policy is.

Secondary school kids are the most infected subset of the population with it now estimated that more than 1 in 50 of them are positive. As they are children, most of them will never be tested as they either are asymptomatic, or will display different symptoms to the main three that are required to trigger a test (councils are overruling this in some parts of England and asking parents to use a more sensible list of symptoms).

Schools mostly break up on 18th December, 5 days before the Christmas relaxation period begins and people start taking advantage of this to mix with other households indoors, in poorly ventilated small rooms, which as scientists warn, is a terrible idea. twitter.com/devisridhar/status/1331931594400149506?s=21

Closing schools a week earlier (or moving online) would give 2 weeks out of school before Christmas day, which would reduce the infection rate in school children significantly (we saw a dip in the infection rate just in one week over half term) and make it safer for them to mix with other households, particularly if people took advantage of those two weeks to significantly reduce their contacts and other risks.

Some schools took it upon themselves to protect their own communities by changing the term dates to close a week earlier. The DfE has overruled this and forced them to stay open.
schoolsweek.co.uk/overruled-dfes-sweeping-coronavirus-powers-force-trust-into-early-christmas-holiday-u-turn/

Because of the tier system, if families don't get together at Christmas during the relaxation period, when their children pose a much higher risk, they will not be able to see their families properly for Christmas at all. Essentially Christmas is being funnelled into a time period which is insanely risky due to it coming shortly after children mixing freely in unsafe schools with significant numbers of undiscovered infections.

I know the DfE have been reading this board. I understand why you want schools open, but lying to people about the risks as you have is dangerous and immoral. Transparency is needed so that people can make their own informed risk assessments, not propaganda about 'safe schools' and 'saving Christmas'.

Tbf I never get buses so I wouldn't know about the bus. I used to pre pandemic but now I just walk anywhere I can't get a train or tube to.

My son is at primary school and every parent wears a mask and does SD at pick up and drop off (for all the difference that makes as our kids are all at school together all day!)

My experience, from visiting other places in the UK over the last couple of months, is that London is pretty compliant.

Cases in my Borough are also low. Not sure on numbers but last I looked we were about third from the bottom.

@Sandyplankton

Tbf I never get buses so I wouldn't know about the bus. I used to pre pandemic but now I just walk anywhere I can't get a train or tube to.

My son is at primary school and every parent wears a mask and does SD at pick up and drop off (for all the difference that makes as our kids are all at school together all day!)

My experience, from visiting other places in the UK over the last couple of months, is that London is pretty compliant.

Same here

Just checked and my borough is at 96 cases per 100k.

Nickynacky I'm not under-estimating the childcare headache that closing schools will create largely for women.

I'm self-employed and my business has been very badly hit by covid and will carry on being for some time. Everyone has lost something in the pandemic and lock down measures, whether it's tragic loss of the life of a loved one, their livelihood or home, or even just the closure of their children's after school activities or a holiday that they'd planned to go on.

It's likely with planned school closures there would be a mandatory requirement for provision for children of key workers, as happened in the spring.

This won't be possible if rates increase dramatically after the Xmas mixing and schools close because there too many staff ill or self-isolating.

From what you've said, it's not that big a deal to you if your child contracts the virus at school as you'll be paid to self-isolate and your work are expecting it.

Just a cursory read of MN over the past months shows you that this isn't the position that a lot of families are in. There are plenty of people terrified that they're having to send their children into school because they or one of their household are ECV for example, or terrified of having no income or losing their job if they need to take time off.

The most effective way of mitigating these risks on a population level is to reduce the spread of the virus. With the current Xmas bubbling plans, closing schools and other educational establishments earlier in December is at the moment the best option on the table on a public health level to do this.

It's not going to happen, as the govt seem to have decided that 'schools will remain open' (even if they're not in practice) is the one thing that they're not going to u-turn on.

Unfortunately, from what we know about the virus, this likely heralds an increase in cases in the NY and the virus being so rife particularly in secondary schools that the school system will collapse.

I'd rather avoid that for the sake of some precautionary measures now.

noblegiraffe this thread has been very illuminating. It is extraordinary how widespread the denial of the spread of covid in secondary schools is, despite the data being very clearly there.

If we could make schools safer then everyone would benefit. It's a mystery to me how people think that a short-term planned closure of schools would be an impossible childcare headache, yet don't seem to have considered what a far greater - and tragic - headache encouraging the virus to spread around the country then back into schools will create.

christinarosseti19 I was genuinely hoping you could share your childcare solution for your primary age children!

Oh, and my local authority wouldn’t allow key worker places to people with only one key worker parent and I’m not sure H will be considered one, so the myth that parents could all access that is just that, a myth.

And it is a big deal if I can’t get to work, the one less headache I have is I get paid and I don’t know why you are making such an issue about that 🤷🏻‍♀️

@christinarossetti19

Nickynacky I'm not under-estimating the childcare headache that closing schools will create largely for women.

I'm self-employed and my business has been very badly hit by covid and will carry on being for some time. Everyone has lost something in the pandemic and lock down measures, whether it's tragic loss of the life of a loved one, their livelihood or home, or even just the closure of their children's after school activities or a holiday that they'd planned to go on.

It's likely with planned school closures there would be a mandatory requirement for provision for children of key workers, as happened in the spring.

This won't be possible if rates increase dramatically after the Xmas mixing and schools close because there too many staff ill or self-isolating.

From what you've said, it's not that big a deal to you if your child contracts the virus at school as you'll be paid to self-isolate and your work are expecting it.

Just a cursory read of MN over the past months shows you that this isn't the position that a lot of families are in. There are plenty of people terrified that they're having to send their children into school because they or one of their household are ECV for example, or terrified of having no income or losing their job if they need to take time off.

The most effective way of mitigating these risks on a population level is to reduce the spread of the virus. With the current Xmas bubbling plans, closing schools and other educational establishments earlier in December is at the moment the best option on the table on a public health level to do this.

It's not going to happen, as the govt seem to have decided that 'schools will remain open' (even if they're not in practice) is the one thing that they're not going to u-turn on.

Unfortunately, from what we know about the virus, this likely heralds an increase in cases in the NY and the virus being so rife particularly in secondary schools that the school system will collapse.

I'd rather avoid that for the sake of some precautionary measures now.

noblegiraffe this thread has been very illuminating. It is extraordinary how widespread the denial of the spread of covid in secondary schools is, despite the data being very clearly there.

If we could make schools safer then everyone would benefit. It's a mystery to me how people think that a short-term planned closure of schools would be an impossible childcare headache, yet don't seem to have considered what a far greater - and tragic - headache encouraging the virus to spread around the country then back into schools will create.

Remote post-Christmas in secondary then. Why are people focusing on the wrong side of Christmas and wrong year groups?

Not primary short notice no kw provision so families can have precious time. Talk about caution rather than encouraging mixing. Bad messaging.

@christinarossetti19

Nickynacky so your workplace remained open because staff were able to juggle some sort of childcare for months.

All the staff who have children who it would be fine to be self-isolating as long as it wasn't all together managed to carry on working.

Yet this would be impossible under any circumstances for a week in December when loads of children are unwell and off school in a normal year?

Interesting.

Perhaps you are unaware of how stressful it was for working parents (outside of home, I know you were still working too!) back in March. My MH still hasn't recovered. Yes we managed to muddle through but the thoughts of doing it again makes me want to hide under a blanket for a month. Just because we survived it before, doesn't mean we feel able to cope with it all again. I have been left with awful anxiety that I never had before.

I think this picking apart is really quite cruel to be honest. If someone says they have no idea how they will manage childcare with extra closures, then that's the truth and a bit of empathy wouldn't go amiss. We used the keyworker childcare in school last time, I see no mention of that re-emerging. It certainly didn't when we had an extra week at half term (country wide). So again, not comparable.

There is no point criticising parents who are struggling. We don't make these decisions anyway! We are simply trying to explain why we aren't in favour of further closures.

You can’t know if schools are encouraging the spread. Unless you are looking at the train of spread. It could be several parents being infected by the same source and passing it onto their children. There is so much virus around you can’t assume their is only one source.

It's likely with planned school closures there would be a mandatory requirement for provision for children of key workers, as happened in the spring.

Nope see the press release. It was closure a week early for primaries across MAT.

@christinarossetti19

Don't be silly Nicknacky.

Why can't you engage with this on a public health level, rather than just your own little box?

Ah but she is. She has made it very clear how important her service is in work. At a public health level, what would happen if it had to shut down as none of the parents could work?

Corona viruses are seasonal. It’s highly likely that the peak of infections will be the same time as last year. I think the government is giving us 5 days because they potentially will have to be really strict March and April.

The virus is going to spread. We can only slow it down. We need to be careful over Christmas but in my view it’s after Christmas that we need to be even more careful.

I agree with PrivateD00r

I have posted comments from the Scotsnet thread confirming this.

It is a crazy argument that because some schools are having to close, it somehow reduces stress to close them all.

OP you were very careful not to say if you were a member of the LB!!!! How convenient. I mean we could really have done with an effective opposition- that’s a conversation to be had. Not enough rebels to make up for Labour being whipped.

christina you do come across as rather naive u'm afraid.

Of course any unexpected absences are hard to deal with, but a planned absence affecting many employees, at what is the busiest time of the year for many businesses can really not be managed easily.

Do you really think they will be supportive of the parents staying at home? Or do you think its the parents who will be made redundant.

Obviously Nicky, for example is not in that position. But she provides an essential service and it's not going to go away just because schools are shut.

You do realise that Nickynand many other essential workers will not get that family time, as its simply not safe? You do realise you are wanting to put endless amounts of worry and anxiety on to them, for absolutely no benefit.

I have never suggested that cases don’t spats in schools. That just has to be accepted though as kids still need to get an education.

My issue is kids doing without yet more schooling because adults including “the elderly”(that everyone on MN patronisingly seems to assume is a simple minded group not capable of making any decisions for themselves and need “protected” at every turn when many are capable of making their own decisions) can’t do without a knees up at Christmas.

It also wouldn’t be a week. Do people think that once unions got their way and got the places shut that they’d get their members back in? They’d be shut for months. AGAIN.

*spread

@Gwlondon

You can’t know if schools are encouraging the spread. Unless you are looking at the train of spread. It could be several parents being infected by the same source and passing it onto their children. There is so much virus around you can’t assume their is only one source.

I have observational evidence, national data and a clear reason as to why covid would spread in a secondary school.

What have you got apart from a straw to grasp onto?

@MarshaBradyo

It's likely with planned school closures there would be a mandatory requirement for provision for children of key workers, as happened in the spring.

Nope see the press release. It was closure a week early for primaries across MAT.

Which the DfE over-ruled.

"Do people think that once unions got their way and got the places shut that they’d get their members back in?"

Once again, slowly and with emphasis: School. Closures. Had/Have. Nothing. To. Do. With. The. Unions.

@noblegiraffe sorry but I absolutely am not ‘mixing up’ safety and convenience.

No one has sad it’s perfectly safe to mix at Christmas. Regardless of what date the schools close.

It is however, ‘convenient’ for people to believe it’s safe if it’s legal. Or it’s safe if the schools close longer. Or it’s safe if there’s just three households. Or it’s safe if it’s just one extra. Or it’s safe because it’s only family. Or it’s safe because it’s been a shitty year and it’s ‘needed’.

The government relaxing measures over five days at Xmas has never , ever been stated as being because it’s a safe or sensible thing to do.

It’s been made quite clear that this is happening because people were unwilling to accept restrictions over Christmas and the government had to introduce something that would maintain some semblance of restriction without mass non compliance, which would psychologically lead to further non compliance etc etc.

Since your whole point across threads is that the government are doing things that are putting people at risk (ie leaving schools open with no measures of safety and ignoring the risk) I’m not sure how you find your own argument (that the government are saying it’s safe just by making it legal) valid. Alcohol is legal. Smoking is legal. No one will tell you it’s safe.

Every expert and their dog is coming forward to say this is a truly terrible idea and highlight the expected consequences which are far from pretty.

I respect your arguments, I really do. I’m actually in total agreement that it’s abhorrent how little has been done to protect teachers through this and how awful it is that the government won’t be honest about schools.

What I don’t understand is the unwillingness of many to accept that the Christmas mixing is just NOT safe and you can CHOOSE to act accordingly. Stamping feet to have schools closed will not make it safer overall because I just cannot believe you’d get a majority of families using that extra week to quarantine the whole family entirely at home.

If people insist on doing it regardless because they want to, they now legally have the right to do that in spite of the significant public health risk it increases for the wider population.

That’s a responsibility people have to just accept. They made it clear they would not comply with what was safest, (for all kinds of reasons, good and bad) so they’ve got their way.

I just think the fight to close schools early is nothing but a demand for some superficial reassurance of it being safer than it actually is, to balance people’s unwillingness to accept that it’s just not a safe or good idea but they are insisting on doing it anyway.

Which the DfE over-ruled.

So you agree they made the right decision.

Good. Anyone else think so?

@Nicknacky, I fail to see why ChristinaRossetti's childcare arrangements could have any bearing whatsoever on what you might be able to arrange for yourself. I therefore suspect that you're only demanding the information in order to score some sort of cheap point.

Ditto, @Gwlondon's similar political affiliation demands of the OP.

@MarshaBradyo

Which the DfE over-ruled.

So you agree they made the right decision.

Good. Anyone else think so?

You're telling the OP what she thinks now?

Covidnomore I'm being naive, yet it's you who is in denial about the spread of covid in schools?

I'd say that I'm trying to avoid the endless worry and anxiety about covid spreading even further in the NY tbh.

Lots of people provide essential services. That's why there was key worker provision set up in schools in the spring.

My dh is a key worker, we couldn't access keyworker childcare which is one of the reasons that my business took a big hit, along with the recession and job losses caused by the pandemic and lock down measures.

My preference would be to limit the length of time lock down measures and restrictions are needed, which seems to on a global scale, the most effective way of reducing the damage across society.

MadameBlobby the government made the decision to shut the schools and then which year groups they would open to. The unions imput was to advocate for schools being as safe as possible when they did open.

There were lots of measures that could have been put in place to reduce transmission in schools. Routine testing, mandatory mask wearing, schools being able to set up their own blended learning if that's what would work best for their own unique profile of staff and students, funding for more cleaning measures for a start.

The unions started from a position of wanting to make workplaces as safe as possible for their members. That's what they're meant to do.