Government denial over schools issues will cause deaths this Christmas

[noblegiraffe]

I just can't get my head around how utterly crazy the government Christmas policy is.

Secondary school kids are the most infected subset of the population with it now estimated that more than 1 in 50 of them are positive. As they are children, most of them will never be tested as they either are asymptomatic, or will display different symptoms to the main three that are required to trigger a test (councils are overruling this in some parts of England and asking parents to use a more sensible list of symptoms).

Schools mostly break up on 18th December, 5 days before the Christmas relaxation period begins and people start taking advantage of this to mix with other households indoors, in poorly ventilated small rooms, which as scientists warn, is a terrible idea. twitter.com/devisridhar/status/1331931594400149506?s=21

Closing schools a week earlier (or moving online) would give 2 weeks out of school before Christmas day, which would reduce the infection rate in school children significantly (we saw a dip in the infection rate just in one week over half term) and make it safer for them to mix with other households, particularly if people took advantage of those two weeks to significantly reduce their contacts and other risks.

Some schools took it upon themselves to protect their own communities by changing the term dates to close a week earlier. The DfE has overruled this and forced them to stay open.
schoolsweek.co.uk/overruled-dfes-sweeping-coronavirus-powers-force-trust-into-early-christmas-holiday-u-turn/

Because of the tier system, if families don't get together at Christmas during the relaxation period, when their children pose a much higher risk, they will not be able to see their families properly for Christmas at all. Essentially Christmas is being funnelled into a time period which is insanely risky due to it coming shortly after children mixing freely in unsafe schools with significant numbers of undiscovered infections.

I know the DfE have been reading this board. I understand why you want schools open, but lying to people about the risks as you have is dangerous and immoral. Transparency is needed so that people can make their own informed risk assessments, not propaganda about 'safe schools' and 'saving Christmas'.

@Welcometonowhere

I don’t think it is saving Christmas vs keeping schools open.

The schools are open: people may choose to have a difference Christmas on that basis, or they may not.

Where I think I differ in my opinion to some on this thread is that I don’t feel it is the place of the government, or headteachers for that matter, to make that decision on behalf of families.

Actually I agree with this. But if someone decides to play it safe after reading this thread then fine.

Ie SI etc

But they have decided on it. They have decided that schools will remain open.

Shame that so many schools are shut and classes isolating then.

Some are.

Many are not.

It is a shame, but of course there are circumstances when this is both necessary and right. It doesn’t mean it’s entirely benign or without consequences. And therefore, it shouldn’t just be done, to every child in the country as a whole, because it’s happening to some.

@Covidnomore: "Which is why I am shocked that number of cases are dropping with schools still being open."

Well, it rather depends what the proportion of new infections consist of school-aged children, but they're not widely publicising that.

Various posters have come on here to say that in their areas it has spread like wildfire, so the same is likely to happen elsewhere especially if the Christmas madness goes ahead.

"Some are."

900,000 kids out of school last Thursday, as an example. That's more than "some," I would say.

@OverTheRainbowLiesOz

Looks like people will need to factor in long periods of isolation for their children through January and February. Plus very full hospitals.

Seems to be the popular choice.

If closing schools for one week in December would guarantee no isolation periods in January or February for my family then I would be all for it. But it is naive to think it would have any meaningful impact.

@SonyaCisco

I am gutted - I work in a school and have children in different schools, we have had cases in all 3 schools. My DF is CEV so we had planned a very quiet Xmas, just us, and to religiously socially distance over the holidays so we could see my parents as safely as possible the final weekend of the 2 week break. Can’t do that now due to tier restrictions, also can’t see them during the Xmas bubble free for all as won’t be safe enough after just a few days out of school...so it will be Easter probably before we can meet up....or we break the rules and make our own judgement that it will be safe to see them at New Year. The Christmas bubbles kick in too near to the end of term in my opinion, January will prob end up even worse then this term in terms of the impact on schools and kids having to isolate. It’s all a bit of an ill-thought out mess....

If you are sure that all of you are not going to see anyone for 2 weeks, I'd try and do it anyway Sonya. I'm generally a rule-follower but there would be zero risk to your DF if you have effectively quarantined for 14 days. Given that so many are bending rules to do really stupid things, you could do it with a clear conscience.

This half term dip. And it’s not a dip in cases so cannot be related to parents not getting kids tested in half term. The shape of the graph isn’t matched in other age groups (although primary has a slowing around the same period).

It’s the ONS random sampling survey and it picks up asymptomatic cases which are a big issue in schools.

Shifting the Christmas break forward by two weeks would help? Seems like a better plan than the Scottish one of extending the break afterwards.
Break up 11th December.
Kids all stay at home to isolate for two weeks before mixing with wider family and schools go back 29th December.

Isn’t it weird that this new notion of personal responsibility coincides with a catastrophic government policy and only applies for the duration of that policy?

No notion of personal responsibility when it comes to deciding if you can go to the pub on 28th December, then it’s down to tiers.

It’s the government wanting to have its cake and eat it. ‘Save Christmas’ but also have someone else to blame when it goes horribly badly. You did personal responsibility wrong, you see.

But it is still a long way from every school snd every year group angelina

No one is disputing education is disrupted. I can't see a way around that.

But it doesn’t mean the approach of closing all schools on this basis is justified.

And yes sonya, I would agree with the PP.

It isn’t a new notion, for me at any rate giraffe. I’m not generally in favour of informing adults who they can see and when. Assuming they are not serving time at HMP, that is.

Kids all stay at home to isolate for two weeks before mixing with wider family

Definitely not.

If your "wider family" is worried, don't see them, or see them outdoors. Why should kids be locked up for two weeks? We locked up students and now you want the younger ones locked up too? No chance.

Also - "wider family" can catch and pass covid on too!

@noblegiraffe

Isn’t it weird that this new notion of personal responsibility coincides with a catastrophic government policy and only applies for the duration of that policy?

No notion of personal responsibility when it comes to deciding if you can go to the pub on 28th December, then it’s down to tiers.

It’s the government wanting to have its cake and eat it. ‘Save Christmas’ but also have someone else to blame when it goes horribly badly. You did personal responsibility wrong, you see.

But you can choose can’t you

Why not?

No one is making anyone see grandma.

When we take our kids out for the week before Christmas holidays - should we lie and say they’re sick or tell the truth by saying we’re doing it to protect the grandparents?

"But it is still a long way from every school and every year group angelina"

Well, it's not one clump of 900,000 all in a few schools, no. It will be spread throughout a range of year groups in a range of schools around the country, creating disruption in all the schools it affects.

@pontypridd

When we take our kids out for the week before Christmas holidays - should we lie and say they’re sick or tell the truth by saying we’re doing it to protect the grandparents?

Whatever you want not a big deal

Break up 11th December. Kids all stay at home to isolate for two weeks before mixing with wider family

Well there’s your first problem.

A very significant proportion won’t isolate.

Rendering the entire thing pointless. Yet more time off school for minimum benefit.

"If your "wider family" is worried, don't see them,"

So what on earth is the point of Boris "saving Christmas" then? Isn't he bowing to public pressure to let us all see family?

Do we get fined if we say it’s to protect the grandparents @MarshaBradyo?

But you can choose can’t you

I can’t choose to not be in an unsafe school can I, Marsha?

I can’t choose to skip the last week of term as you have suggested so that my children can see their grandparents who they have only seen once this year.

I have no choice here.

"Well there’s your first problem."

"A very significant proportion won’t isolate."

"Rendering the entire thing pointless."

Yep, I think I agree with you there.

And closing all schools because some schools are in trouble is not a solution.

There have been three cases at ds' 6th form college. It would be ludicrous for them to close - as it is they are doing a week of remote learning immediately before the end of term.