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Secondary schools are fucked, BOFFINS ADMIT

999 replies

noblegiraffe · 13/11/2020 21:39

Latest ONS random sampling data shows that secondary school children in Y7-11 are now the age group with the highest infection rate in England, overtaking sixth form and university students.

In Wales "Schoolchildren are more likely to catch and spread coronavirus than previously thought, experts have warned... It was also discovered that while children were far more likely to be asymptomatic and not become seriously unwell, they were more likely to be the first positive case in any household."

www.walesonline.co.uk/news/health/schoolchildren-more-likely-catch-spread-19275959?fbclid=IwAR0kpoikv0D_nkwHx3lVyQX_cyDj6Ycy1d6gE3aRx6syxUKzFQsYzMDSqPw

English boffins are a bit slower on the uptake though
"SAGE’s report found that prevalence of Covid-19 in school-age children had “risen significantly” in the first wave, and that the rise in prevalence was “first visible around the time that schools reopened”.

However, it said that while this “may be indicative of a potential role for school opening, causation, including the extent to which transmission is occurring in schools, is unproven and difficult to establish”.

schoolsweek.co.uk/child-infection-rate-rise-began-when-schools-reopened-but-direct-link-unproven-says-sage/

It must indeed be difficult to establish whether there's transmission in a high risk environment where kids are packed in like sardines with no mitigation measures. A real head-scratcher. Especially if you spent the whole summer insisting that it would be fine because the kids are facing forward.

What do we want? Well, one of the major teaching unions has called on the government to:

  1. Demonstrate that they are following the scientific evidence and advice.
  2. Strengthen the guidance to schools and colleges on ensuring COVID-safe and COVID-secure working practices.
  3. Secure the updating and publication of health and safety risk assessments and equality impact assessments by school and college employers.
  4. Publish weekly data on positive cases of COVID-19 infections of school/college staff and pupils by local government area
  5. Ramp up inspection and enforcement measures in schools and colleges, including more comprehensive use of spot checks and visits by the Health and Safety Executive (HSE).
  6. Take swift action to protect public health in the event of an outbreak.
  7. Protect vulnerable teachers and support staff and pupils.
  8. Strengthen the guidance to insist on effective social distancing in schools/colleges.
  9. Establish a national plan for remote education/blended and distance learning.
10. Provide significant additional financial support for schools and colleges urgently to ensure the safety of staff and pupils, including extra funding for cleaning, personal protective equipment (PPE) and supply teachers

www.nasuwt.org.uk/article-listing/plan-to-keep-schools-safe-during-pandemic.html

Oh OP I knew this would be you yadayada...yeah that's why I chose the same thread title as before etc etc.

Why do we need another thread blah blah: it's because secondary school kids are now infected at the highest rates in the country. This has implications for lockdown. How effective will it be if the most infected subset of the population are mixing freely? And it's also the first hint from scientists that they might have been wrong about exactly how safe schools are. There's also a strong suggestion that kids are bringing the virus home from school which parents should be aware of.

It's also causing chaos in schools, but there's another thread about that.

Secondary schools are fucked, BOFFINS ADMIT
OP posts:
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noblegiraffe · 16/11/2020 21:54

Look at the report for the week before half term and compare it to the week after half term. Why is there now less information?

Presumably because 4% doesn't sound a lot, but hundreds of thousands of kids does.

More data massaging from the government to hide how things are going.

Secondary schools are fucked, BOFFINS ADMIT
Secondary schools are fucked, BOFFINS ADMIT
OP posts:
cantkeepawayforever · 16/11/2020 21:54

84% of state schools

What percentage of SECONDARY schools??

WhyNotMe40 · 16/11/2020 21:54

[quote HakeCod]@noblegiraffe

They haven’t stopped reporting anything. 12,000 DC were isolating with a confirmed case of coronavirus. Only 8% of schools has more than 30 DC isolating.

Clearly these figures are not ideal but they are far preferable to every DC being out of school or schools only having 50% of DC in at once as some are calling for.[/quote]
What date? Seriously. If this was data collected after half term I will be heartily astonished

Hercwasonaroll · 16/11/2020 21:54

Another key figure is that 84% of state schools did not have a single DC isolating as a result of contact with a COVID case on the day in question.

Did they ask in the middle of half term? (I wouldn't put it past this government)

noblegiraffe · 16/11/2020 21:55

They haven’t stopped reporting anything

Explain the difference in the report from before half term to after half term then. Why is that figure no longer being reported?

OP posts:
cantkeepawayforever · 16/11/2020 21:56

There are LOTS more primaries than secondaries - about 8:1 in my town - and primaries do have fewer cases.

So if ALL the secondaries are hit, it is only 1 in 9 of the schools, but that 1 in 9 educate half the students.

HakeCod · 16/11/2020 21:56

@cantkeepawayforever

The latest figures show that the overall attendance figures in state schools have increased since the previous report.

Only 16% of state schools had contacts isolating (down from 21%) including 38% of secondaries (down from 46%).

BustopherPonsonbyJones · 16/11/2020 21:57

@HakeCod. As others more eloquent than I have explained, schools can only stay open if teachers are well and/or not isolating. It is with no pleasure that I tell you that teachers are not able to keep safe, have become ill and are isolating. Therefore schools are not going to stay open. Believe me, I would prefer not to be in this situation as I like being alive and relatively well. Life expectancy is quite important to school staff too. The silly thing is there are plenty of safety measures which could have been introduced to limit the spread of infection (see noblegiraffe’s suggestions) but we didn’t, did we? Doh!

HakeCod · 16/11/2020 21:57

All figures are from November 5th @WhyNotMe40.

cantkeepawayforever · 16/11/2020 21:57

So 84% of schools could be 'none of the primaries but every single secondary', easily.

noblegiraffe · 16/11/2020 21:57

@Hercwasonaroll

Another key figure is that 84% of state schools did not have a single DC isolating as a result of contact with a COVID case on the day in question.

Did they ask in the middle of half term? (I wouldn't put it past this government)

62% of secondaries on Thurs 5th November didn't have kids isolating as the result of contact with a covid case in the school. Many other schools will have kids isolating due to contact outside of school. Most schools, I'd imagine.

Hake missed that bit...

OP posts:
Barbie222 · 16/11/2020 21:58

Only 8% of schools has more than 30 DC isolating. Clearly these figures are not ideal but they are far preferable to every DC being out of school or schools only having 50% of DC in at once as some are calling for.

Of course, but if we leave things as they are, the 8% will become 80%, and it will be a much longer period of closure and restraint to get it back down to 8% again. Why wouldn't you want a course of action that would mean the least disruption? Sorry, but you'd need to be really dim not to see the writing on the wall. Secondaries need more space and less kids, fast. We need to prepare for rotas whether we like it or not.

cantkeepawayforever · 16/11/2020 21:59

All figures are from November 5th

So over 10 days ago, in the week after half term?

Funny that. Cases today are VERY different.

noblegiraffe · 16/11/2020 21:59

Hake is also looking at data from after half term where schools benefitted from being shut for a week. The figures from before half term were much worse.

OP posts:
cantkeepawayforever · 16/11/2020 22:00

62% of secondaries on Thurs 5th November didn't have kids isolating as the result of contact with a covid case in the school. Many other schools will have kids isolating due to contact outside of school. Most schools, I'd imagine.

I don't know any schools with no children isolating at all - every primary has children in isolation every day due to parents being tested or outside school contacts testing positive.

WhyNotMe40 · 16/11/2020 22:02

Yeah. 3 days after schools return. So of course they won't be cases picked up in school.
I will be very interested to see data that is relevant to after half term. Ie.infections in school.

WhyNotMe40 · 16/11/2020 22:03

Jake - look at the half term.dip....

Secondary schools are fucked, BOFFINS ADMIT
TheEmojiFormerlyKnownAsPrince · 16/11/2020 22:05

Only 8% of schools have more than 30 dc isolating?!’

What utter shit. I live in a Tier 3 city. Every fucking school in the city has bubbles popped, kids isolating.

noblegiraffe · 16/11/2020 22:06

The real worry is that we ended last term so badly and we are starting this term with way higher figures than in September. How bad will things be by Christmas?

OP posts:
WhyNotMe40 · 16/11/2020 22:07

I teach in a tier 1 shire city/town.
Every school whether primary or secondary has isolating pupils and most have groups isolating. All just in the last week or so though. It's seriously accelerating now it has hit schools here.

HakeCod · 16/11/2020 22:08

The facts don’t lie @TheEmojiFormerlyKnownAsPrince.

WhyNotMe40 · 16/11/2020 22:10

Yeah but what's the phrase? Lies, damn lies, and statistics.
These have been "massaged,"

cantkeepawayforever · 16/11/2020 22:10

Only 8% of schools have more than 30 dc isolating?!

O think that statistic is given in that form because it makes a 30 pupil primary in rural Devon equal to a 1500 pupil secondary in Manchester. the percentage of pupils attending schools that have had more than 30 pupils isolating at any point over a rolling period of 2-3 weeks would be MUCH more valid.

cantkeepawayforever · 16/11/2020 22:11

There is also the point that schools are now being told to send home 'close contacts' only. Great for statistics, useless for infection control....

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