Secondary schools are fucked, BOFFINS ADMIT

[noblegiraffe]

Latest ONS random sampling data shows that secondary school children in Y7-11 are now the age group with the highest infection rate in England, overtaking sixth form and university students.

In Wales "Schoolchildren are more likely to catch and spread coronavirus than previously thought, experts have warned... It was also discovered that while children were far more likely to be asymptomatic and not become seriously unwell, they were more likely to be the first positive case in any household."

www.walesonline.co.uk/news/health/schoolchildren-more-likely-catch-spread-19275959?fbclid=IwAR0kpoikv0D_nkwHx3lVyQX_cyDj6Ycy1d6gE3aRx6syxUKzFQsYzMDSqPw

English boffins are a bit slower on the uptake though
"SAGE’s report found that prevalence of Covid-19 in school-age children had “risen significantly” in the first wave, and that the rise in prevalence was “first visible around the time that schools reopened”.

However, it said that while this “may be indicative of a potential role for school opening, causation, including the extent to which transmission is occurring in schools, is unproven and difficult to establish”.

schoolsweek.co.uk/child-infection-rate-rise-began-when-schools-reopened-but-direct-link-unproven-says-sage/

It must indeed be difficult to establish whether there's transmission in a high risk environment where kids are packed in like sardines with no mitigation measures. A real head-scratcher. Especially if you spent the whole summer insisting that it would be fine because the kids are facing forward.

What do we want? Well, one of the major teaching unions has called on the government to:

1. Demonstrate that they are following the scientific evidence and advice.
2. Strengthen the guidance to schools and colleges on ensuring COVID-safe and COVID-secure working practices.
3. Secure the updating and publication of health and safety risk assessments and equality impact assessments by school and college employers.
4. Publish weekly data on positive cases of COVID-19 infections of school/college staff and pupils by local government area
5. Ramp up inspection and enforcement measures in schools and colleges, including more comprehensive use of spot checks and visits by the Health and Safety Executive (HSE).
6. Take swift action to protect public health in the event of an outbreak.
7. Protect vulnerable teachers and support staff and pupils.
8. Strengthen the guidance to insist on effective social distancing in schools/colleges.
9. Establish a national plan for remote education/blended and distance learning.

10. Provide significant additional financial support for schools and colleges urgently to ensure the safety of staff and pupils, including extra funding for cleaning, personal protective equipment (PPE) and supply teachers

www.nasuwt.org.uk/article-listing/plan-to-keep-schools-safe-during-pandemic.html

Oh OP I knew this would be you yadayada...yeah that's why I chose the same thread title as before etc etc.

Why do we need another thread blah blah: it's because secondary school kids are now infected at the highest rates in the country. This has implications for lockdown. How effective will it be if the most infected subset of the population are mixing freely? And it's also the first hint from scientists that they might have been wrong about exactly how safe schools are. There's also a strong suggestion that kids are bringing the virus home from school which parents should be aware of.

It's also causing chaos in schools, but there's another thread about that.

Mad, isn't it Why?

Argh thread moving too fast. My comment was to the teacher that wasn’t isolating (who should be but probably isn’t allowed) whereas Boris, who has blatantly broken the rules again, does isolate.

No need apparently.... Not part of their bubble (secondary), stayed as distant "as possible", student was seated other side of table, and never spoke other than for the register. Plus there were 2 windows open so...

Although when I say "open"... I'm talking about the type that prop open outwards at the bottom about 15cm

I think you'd need to know more about the ONS survey design than I do to know if it's plausible that people were choosing just 'teacher' when they should really have been 'secondary teacher' or whatever - it seems plausible that they were if you write it in a box or give an answer over a phone, less likely if it's a drop-down list or tickbox as you'd expect people to choose the more accurate one if presented with a range of options. Is anyone here part of the survey?

The additional notes say 'Teaching assistants are included in the teacher category. Education support staff includes those who are not teachers but work in a school or university setting.' - by 'the teacher category' do they mean this 'unknown' category, it isn't very clear?

I have done an ONS survey where you typed in your profession. The box was very glitchy and I clicked teacher out of frustration when I could only see this option. This may have been what happened (if it is the same options).

I know that you do the initial survey for the ONS Covid survey - which presumably includes the question on occupation - at the same time as you do your first sample (because we actually got a letter about the survey and I signed up but they never came to take that first sample, despite me chasing!). Which I guess means you either do it on paper or over the phone with the person who comes to give you the test (they definitely said something about them calling from outside the house), so it does seem quite likely that it's free-text and so people might just be writing/saying teacher.

Sorry, I know I answered myself there, was just continuing to ponder...

Well, my primary school is now closed for two weeks as we ran out of staff due to some testing positive, some still absent recovering from Covid, some self-isolating and some shielding.

I know this thread is mainly secondary-based but I would be interested to know more about the role (if any) of younger children in transmission. Asymptomatic? Non-standard symptoms? Parents not wanting to test? No role at all?

In my school and my DC's school all the positive cases have been among adults. I know the general narrative will be that the adults are mixing outside of school and contracting it there but most of us have been doing very little outside school. Most of the staff I know who have tested positive also have their own primary or secondary-aged DC at home so that's another possible source of transmission.

However, without mass testing of younger children, which seems extremely unlikely to happen, I guess we won't ever know.

@HakeCod

With all due respect *@TheSunIsStillShining*, 96% of DC not absent for COVID related reasons is far better than 100% off with schools closed or 50% absent due to blended learning.

The picture being painted in some quarters of virtually every DC at home due to school closures or bubbles bursting is not an accurate reflection of what is happening inside schools.

This is the point where we don't agree. I don't think schools atm are safe, thus kids should be nowhere near it**. Once the minimal/basic safety measures are taken -mantra: MASKS ffs, smaller class sizes, SD, ventilation - then we can talk about how many kids are in school. And at that point, yes, the majority should be in school. Still -at that point too- CV/ECV kids/parents should have a "suspend" option keeping the place.

My opinion has not changed. As long as we don't know the long term effects, but we do see indication that there are major ones, we should not be experimenting on a helpless part of society. Kids do not have a voice usually. The fact that in our family our teen has a vote is probably quite unconventional. (and annoying most times)

This gov is reckless and stupid. They are jeopardizing future taxpayers for today;s sake. Lets assume that 20%* have long lasting/life altering remnants of (an asymptomatic sometimes) covid infection.
So it's not just that in a decade these people will be not paying taxes, but the healthcare costs and social system will have to bear the burden. So it's actually almost double the lost potentially. And this is just looking at it from a pure logic, no emotion perspective. And also looking only at the kids and not taking teachers into the =.

Plus, they are knowingly and willfully harming the absolute helpless: sen children. On that front, yes, many won't ever contribute, so that's out of the equation. But for them this could be more severe. And secondary pupils - compared to them- can actually have a voice if they chose or are pissed enough. These kids -by the nature of it- can't. And they are being forced into a hazardous environment.

RE: ECONOMY
I did a back of the envelope math on another thread a few weeks back. And they should not be blanket paying but based on prev earnings. Also not all mothers actually work because they really need to, so there would be some savings there as well. It should focus on where it is needed, not the sahm who works 5 hours a week for fun....
Pic attached. Pls. have a think on how much did this gov waste on cronies. And come to your own conclusion.
Obviously this is just a small drop. But it would allow for school buildings to be re-used for secondaries. With careful planning, diff structure maybe even get some teachers or TAs from primary to help out with lower secondary subject (this is a wild guess)....
[to make it easier a quote from the guardian from 2 months ago:
"The government response to the coronavirus pandemic is on track to cost the public purse £210bn for the first six months of the crisis, Whitehall’s spending watchdog has said." I'll try to find more current numbers as I'm interested.]

*based on studies in us saying 20-30% of + tested have long-covid. can't find the article atm, sorry

**it's like having 100s of kids on the side of the pond with 1 adult who is preoccupied with admin and no net. Some will fall, some will die, some will swim for a long time to the otherside...you get my point. Would this be ever considered???

@HakeCod
Although I quoted your post then went off on a tangent. I agree on the point that it is very hard and tedious to actually be informed. journalists should be reporting the facts, not tear duct inducing headlines.... but that is a diff story.

Marjory it seems to me a mix of a) parents arent being envouraged to test for "a cold" nd b) kids often dont have the 3 main symptoms.

Drom2 your example and others on here it seems clear its transmitting through kids. Vut if the kids aren't counted in the statistics, just the adults, then they'll conveniently never be able to prove that.

@nothingcanhurtmewithmyeyesshut

Boffins? Seriously? What is this 2002? This was a pathetic insult when I was at school 15 years ago.

Not these days!

@MarjorytheTrashHeap This report in the local press was interesting on non-standard symptoms in primary pupils. I think the council have been doing some mass testing in schools here which might explain how they've picked it up.

https://www.manchestereveningnews.co.uk/news/greater-manchester-news/headteacher-warns-parents-over-lesser-19102778

Boffins? Seriously? What is this 2002? This was a pathetic insult when I was at school 15 years ago.

Boffins is just lighthearted newspaper headline slang for expert scientists. It doesn't mean they don't respect them or their studies.

What a start to the day; 11, 12 and 13 are out whilst we trace contacts. 6 cases confirmed over the weekend. All years have been out already, so even more disruption and some of the 12 and 13 have BTEC exams in January, and we have some 12s doing resits.

Now if the internet would let us connect I could set work!

I have some friends in Melbourne, Australia.

They got down to 0 cases (lots/most schools were closed for a long time though..)

What surprised me was that even now any child with "symptoms " is sent home. Sounds similar to us... but for them symptoms was any kind of ill - so snotty noses were all sent home alongside coughs etc. Seems less transmission of everything. But eveyrthung was classed as could be symptom.

Im amazed at the differences when their rate was not as high as ours. And their willingness to lockdown severely til it was gone. They are all shocked at the way people want to return to normal with sucha high rate here. And worried for us...

If you want to find out the details of the ONS survey noblegiraffe it would probably be possible to find out the proportion of the correspondence who were teacher of unknown type. If it is significantly higher then that would strengthen your case that teachers are significantly at higher risk then other key workers. At the moment there isn’t the evidence to support that assertion. Interestingly nursery workers and university lecturers scored higher than secondary school teachers. Which is surprising because lecturers have been giving lessons online and small child you are less likely to pass on the virus.

@stairway

If you want to find out the details of the ONS survey noblegiraffe it would probably be possible to find out the proportion of the correspondence who were teacher of unknown type. If it is significantly higher then that would strengthen your case that teachers are significantly at higher risk then other key workers. At the moment there isn’t the evidence to support that assertion. Interestingly nursery workers and university lecturers scored higher than secondary school teachers. Which is surprising because lecturers have been giving lessons online and small child you are less likely to pass on the virus.

I think there are a lot more face to face lessons happening in Universities than the media are portraying.

If you want to find out the details of the ONS survey noblegiraffe it would probably be possible to find out the proportion of the correspondence who were teacher of unknown type.

I couldn’t find the data but the confidence interval compared to the other groups of teachers suggests a much larger group.

The error bars all overlap though suggesting no significant difference.

Numbers of people in ONS Sample for that study -

Teachers of unknown Type - 7,714
Primary Teachers - 2,190
Secondary Teachers - 1,852

Angela Merkel is apparently set to push for half sized classes in Germany. I wonder if this will have a knock on effect across Europe.

@stairway

If you want to find out the details of the ONS survey noblegiraffe it would probably be possible to find out the proportion of the correspondence who were teacher of unknown type. If it is significantly higher then that would strengthen your case that teachers are significantly at higher risk then other key workers. At the moment there isn’t the evidence to support that assertion. Interestingly nursery workers and university lecturers scored higher than secondary school teachers. Which is surprising because lecturers have been giving lessons online and small child you are less likely to pass on the virus.

If key workers include face to face NHS workers, then it is ridiculous that teachers are at the same or higher risk; presumably this increased risk is very largely due to the failures of safe workplace provision.

@PatriciaHolm

Numbers of people in ONS Sample for that study -

Teachers of unknown Type - 7,714
Primary Teachers - 2,190
Secondary Teachers - 1,852

Ooh, where did you find that? I did look last night and couldn't see actual figures anywhere.