Press conference this evening

[bathsh3ba]

Do we think this will be a vaccine update, a change to rules or just waffle?

I'll find it @FrankenNora Don't worry about that

Too tired now so I'll come back tomorrow. If you can't wait, perhaps contact Whitty or Vallance to ask for a copy.

It wasn't a projection. It was definite data of deaths and hospitalisations already occurred or currently happening.

Oh @MadridSun
Wrong again. Sadly Long Covid sufferers are not just a 'tiny minority'.

As if the cash strapped NHS would set up treatment clinics across the country for an illness affecting just a tiny minority!

Various experts have repeatedly explained that the economic and health consequences of uncontained Covid would be far more damaging than any restrictions. Fair enough that they recommended (and I agree with them) one proper lockdown over several looser ones.

I recommend people follow Professor Devi Sridhar. She's one of the scientific experts advising the Scottish government.
Calm intelligent explanations.

Again, the reason for the rise from 45 is because of the way the ONS configures its data. This is GOOD news for people under 50.
A report on the long covid research is here:

www.theguardian.com/world/2020/oct/21/women-aged-50-60-at-greatest-risk-of-long-covid-experts-suggest

The data last week (and elsewhere, worldwide) had 5 year grouping.
So 40-45, 45-50, 50-55, etc.

From the article you linked:
However, the greatest difference between men and women was seen among those aged between 40 and 50, where women’s risk of developing long Covid was double that of men’s.^

The risk might be even more for 50-60, but it very clearly is an issue for women in their 40s.

Perhaps the emphasis on 50+ is because that's when the risk increases for men?

Actually I think that might just be it.
The 40 somethings at risk are more likely to be women.

It's worth repeating.

those aged between 40 and 50, where women’s risk of developing long Covid was double that of men’s.

Those under 50 without underlying conditions are at low risk. I showed a UK graph from the BMJ that showed that, but this is international data.

Do you want 45-50 year olds to be vulnerable?

@SheepandCow

Actually I think that might just be it. The 40 somethings at risk are more likely to be women.

It's worth repeating.

those aged between 40 and 50, where women’s risk of developing long Covid was double that of men’s.

But men are, in general, more at risk from COVID than women. Although there are more female deaths in the very elderly, where women are over-represented.

www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)31748-7/fulltext

@cathyandclare

Those under 50 without underlying conditions are at low risk. I showed a UK graph from the BMJ that showed that, but this is international data.

Do you want 45-50 year olds to be vulnerable?

No I don't want them to be vulnerable. Which is what they'd be. Very much so - if their increased risk is denied and downplayed, therefore leaving them unprotected and being given a false sense of security.

That graph you posted is for 40-49 age group. The risk jumps at 45.

I expect from now onwards we'll see less specific age group data.

45-50 will be hidden amongst the wider 40-49 age group.

It seems there's an agenda to try to downplay the increased risk for the over 45s.

The risk is not just death. As the Guardian article you linked shows.

Long Covid is especially affecting women from 40+.

Men are at increased risk of death. Women are at increased risk of long-term disability.

Both fates are best avoided.

Is this the slide you are talking about? @sheepandcow

No sorry @FrankenNora
It's frustrating. I'm trying to find it. It was in 5 year groupings - including 45-50.

I'll have a proper look tomorrow.