Press conference this evening

[bathsh3ba]

Do we think this will be a vaccine update, a change to rules or just waffle?

@Dawnlassie

How are going to discover who the 10% that it doesnt work for? Will they run mass antibody testing in conjunction with this?

Or will people just have to hope they are in the 90%?

Why would you think they'd handle it any differently to all the other vaccines? We don't do mass antibody tests to find out who isn't immune to measles.

Well alas it was an appearence from the home guard! I wish they'd bring Dido Harding on for the next press conference, she & Johnson have lots of questions they need to answer about the test and trace system before everyone is let out to play for Christmas.

Well I missed the briefing because I was working but I did enjoy reading this thread lol. Thank you. I think I’ll give the briefing a swerve and not bother watching... especially if Johnson looked like he was drunk. Need to keep my blood pressure down

Well he was a lot more cautious than many thought he would be! The cynic in me now expects the pending vaccine to be used as an excuse for extending lockdown.

@SheepandCow

One of the main reasons for 45 being used as the age at which risk increases is the ONS reporting. Their figures, which SAGE and news sites often use as a source for their articles, are broken down into ages 15-44 and 45 to 64, with very few deaths in the former and many more in the latter. However, these figures include all people within that wide range.

I'm sure JVT has access to more of a break down within the range and would trust his assertion that risk increases at 50. I'd guess he reads the SAGE reports too!!!

For example this graph from the BMJ shows the line is pretty flat until after the age of 50. Research also shows that long Covid is more common in women in their 50s and 60s

The lines with circles are COVID- red for women and blue for men

@MadridSun

It's even more unhelpful to actually throw 45-50 year old to the wolves.

Data from around the world, including the UK, shows clearly that the risk of serious illness or death jumps from 45.

There's no catastrophising in correcting factually incorrectly information.

If there's going to be an age cut-off (for vaccine priority or anything else related to Covid) it should be 45, not 50.

@cathyandclare

For example this graph from the BMJ shows the line is pretty flat until after the age of 50. Research also shows that long Covid is more common in women in their 50s and 60s

Things must've changed in very recent weeks wrt the data?

Research had suggested Long Covid was more common in women - in their 40s (I think 50s too). I'll try find the link.

45 was noted in last week's press conference (unlike yesterday's).

Can't remember if it was last week's press conference graphs and/or elsewhere but several data sources recorded age grouping by 5 year groups. So.40-45, 45-50, 50-55, etc.

Worldwide we've seen the risks start to jump from mid 40s.

Look at the recent deaths. Seems to be people from mid 40s upwards.

One suggestion I'd seen was to include socioeconomic risk factors. That makes sense.

Like I've said before. A 45 year old living in a deprived urban area will be at higher risk than a 55 year old living in am affluent village.

Data from around the world, including the UK, shows clearly that the risk of serious illness or death jumps from 45.

But it is still very low. It is 70+ that the real jump happens.

@Aylaaaaaaa

Data from around the world, including the UK, shows clearly that the risk of serious illness or death jumps from 45.

But it is still very low. It is 70+ that the real jump happens.

Right. Ok. Then why the cut off of 50, and not 70?

The answer is because from middle age (45, not 50) the risk increases. Of Long Covid as well as death.

The data shows a jump in the risk from 45.

Oh and the 'underlying conditions' noted when somebody dies of Covid can be anything (including lots not in any way linked to increased Covid risk, i.e. depression, ezcema, etc).

My BIL is a doctor working in ICU (often with covid patients), and he says in his experience those who are younger than 70 who are dying (particularly in their 40s and 50s) are those whose underlying conditions are significant. They are not patients who have eczema or even diabetes. They are patients who have blood cancer or other similar, very serious illnesses.

It's interesting how things vary between hospitals.

1 in 4 of all the deaths have been in people with diabetes. The reports all emphasis it's very low risk under 40 wrt diabetes.

It's in someone's 40s - especially mid 40s onwards when the risks really start to increase.

Btw to clarify, in case of confusion. When we get a report of the deaths and we're told something like 'all but 10 had underlying conditions', often the underlying condition is irrelevant wrt Covid. As in it didn't affect the outcome.

@sheepandcow

The links you have posted are around six months old.

JVT has access to the most up to date data, therefore I am more inclined to believe he is correct on this.

[quote FrankenNora]@sheepandcow

The links you have posted are around six months old.

JVT has access to the most up to date data, therefore I am more inclined to believe he is correct on this.[/quote]
He must have different data to Chris Whitty, Patrick Vallance. And the rest of the world.

Last week's press conference included graphs showing the age risk increased from 45. I commented about that on here at the time.

@MadridSun
It's very dangerous to peddle false information and hope, like you're doing.

Of course things won't go straight back to normal once over 80s are vaccinationed.

One of the reasons there are more deaths in the over 80s is because they are often (but definitely not always) too clinically frail to cope with treatment such as ICU.

Lots of under 65s are in hospital. If Covid spreads uncontained more will need hospital. Which they won't get if beds are full. So they might die.

Then there's Long Covid.

We won't be able to go back to normal until a large percentage of the population has been vaccinated. The WHO explains this well.

@MadridSun
I'm sorry you struggle with reading comprehension skills. I'm tired and not writing amazingly eloquently - but I'm very clearly not trying to imply there are 'thousands of 45 year olds with ezcema in ICU'. Perhaps re-read my posts.

@sheepandcow

There were lots of slides at recent press conferences which could have been better though

Have you got a recent link to back up any of your assertions?