Press conference this evening

[bathsh3ba]

Do we think this will be a vaccine update, a change to rules or just waffle?

[quote 110APiccadilly]@CuriousaboutSamphire Fig 2 in this article? Though it looks like a pretty flat line to me - I'm not seeing any particular jumps (except at the bottom around children's risks) www.bmj.com/content/370/bmj.m3259[/quote]
Sorry, that's an added risk comparison! Fig 1 had what you want though I think.

I think the -80 might be more of a logistical problem than people realise.

Freezer companies might be jumping for joy though.

I should also point out that Fig 2 is on a log scale (as is the top half of Fig 1). So the risk increases pretty much exponentially with age.

Yes! That's the one. Severity increases mid 40s but at about 50 there is a more severe gradient change.

I must have read it in an ME/ CFS forum, I think!

From the BHF website:
almost all deaths involving Covid-19 occur in people over 45
www.bhf.org.uk/informationsupport/heart-matters-magazine/news/coronavirus-and-your-health/what-makes-you-at-risk-from-coronavirus

Their info comes from the ONS.

The government emphasis on over 50s puts people in their mid 40s in a very vulnerable position.

Potentially increased risk but limited chance of protection - and less awareness of their risk.

-80 is way below the temperature that a regular freezer can generate.

Specialist freezers would be needed for anything more than short term storage. Short term storage can be done on dry ice, but that comes with its own drawbacks in terms of safety and that it needs regular replenishing. The volume of 20-30million vaccine doses is vast. Vast.

I'd guess the Pfizer vaccine is likely to be distributed to and administered from centralised centres (query hospitals that already have such freezers, other locations if the govt has managed to procure the freezers - they are in very very short supply).

The AZ (Oxford) vaccine is not quite so advanced (I'd guess a month or so behind) but can be transported and stored at 2-8 (usual refrigerator temperature).
I'd guess harder to reach people and places - and lower risk people - will wait longer and get the AZ vaccine. There are also 3-4 other vaccines that will be similarly on the stocks by the summer from other big and confident producers.

It's going to be like a balloon debate for those vaccines.

God that was depressing! I was feeling really hopeful earlier in the day.

Did they downplay the vaccine progress out of genuine caution or because the Americans and Germans are closer to the finish line than we are with the Oxford vaccine?

Or is it because Dictator Boris and his army of doomsayers are loving their control over our lives a little bit too much?

I wonder how long they defrost it for/what temperature it is administered at?

God that was depressing! I was feeling really hopeful earlier in the day.

Me too! And then I got an email from the co-op about planning my own funeral!!

@Fizbosshoes

God that was depressing! I was feeling really hopeful earlier in the day.

Me too! And then I got an email from the co-op about planning my own funeral!!

Bastards!

The CEO of Biontech was sounding optimistic about the cold storage/vaccine stability issue - they currently think it can be defrosted and kept in fridge for at least 5 days, but maybe up to two weeks. They’ll know more in December.

Or is it because Dictator Boris and his army of doomsayers are loving their control over our lives a little bit too much?

Because they still need this lockdown to work and they can’t allow people to let down their guard.

But 90% efficacy speaks for itself, so don’t let it worry you in the longer term.

Don't know about the rest of you, but I found that Brigadier quite dashing ...

Any silver lining!

Oxford vax data will be released next week, efficacy and safety, thus may be passed by the regulator and distributed first.

Because they still need this lockdown to work and they can’t allow people to let down their guard.

I get that but I also think people will be more willing to make the sacrifice if they can see a real end in sight. Boris was full of optimism about a vaccine when he announced the restrictions last week but now that we have a proper basis for that optimism, he’s pouring cold water all over it. It just doesn’t add up for me.

Any cut-off in who gets the vaccine, and who those to receive it on grounds other than age, will be thought to be unfair by some, not just those who miss out.

As for MPs, I would not prioritise those who nominated Boris Johnson to be Conservative leader.

@bornonvalentines

Don't know about the rest of you, but I found that Brigadier quite dashing ...

Any silver lining!

I thought he looked like Bert from Sesame Street

‘Oxford vax data will be released next week, efficacy and safety, thus may be passed by the regulator and distributed first.‘

Where have you heard this?

@laudemio that’s interesting, where do you see that? So the Oxford vaccine could well be the game changer here still?

I've heard it from someone close to the process but also was in the fail, this article a little way down
www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8929131/Pfizer-BioNTech-say-COVID-19-vaccine-90-effective.html

How are going to discover who the 10% that it doesnt work for? Will they run mass antibody testing in conjunction with this?

Or will people just have to hope they are in the 90%?

No vaccine is 100% effective. For those it is offered to it will be choose 90+% effective or nothing...

Re: AZ: have they been manufacturing on risk too? Are they ready to distribute too? If so that's v.good news too.

I'll make life a little bit easier by saying that anyone who wants my vaccination can have it. I don't want it.

@etopp that's fabulous thanks I'll have yours (but I may have to fight the other millions across the country who will want the vaccine and have not been scared off by conspiracy theorists on Facebook who probably didnt scrape a pass in GCSE science )