Press conference this evening

[bathsh3ba]

Do we think this will be a vaccine update, a change to rules or just waffle?

@Unsure33 not just the subject of his speech also his diction which is very poor. I have had a hard day at work.

[quote Unsure33]@SheepandCow

It won’t just be in age .

The nhs already have a list of the clinically vunerable .[/quote]
That doesn't fill me with confidence.
Not if it's based on the shielding list - which excludes many of the most extremely vulnerable, including people with diabetes, who comprise 1 in 4 of all the deaths.

Wrt age, it's concerning that JVT is incorrectly stating the risk increases at 50 - when in fact it's 45. It doesn't bode well for the 45-50 age group. Higher risk, but potentially left unprotected.

I read somewhere that socioeconomic factors would be taken into account. Now that would make sense.

An affluent healthy 55 year old, living in a rural area, is at far lower risk than a low income 45 year old living in a deprived town or city.

Do you know why they need to dumb it down. Because there are posters in here saying they won’t take the vaccine because boris is incapable of producing a safe one .

Fgs it’s American

If you want to say it’s going to fail blame the Americans .

@SheepandCow

Yes but when they have enough vaccine you will be able to get it probably in Superdrug or boots like you do with the normal flu vaccine now ?

My work pay for mine or I pay myself .

Try to look forward .

It's very important, if the government is doing an age cut-off, that they get the age right.

Separate from the vaccine, it's irresponsible to give factually incorrect information. People need to be aware of their risk levels.

I bet the MPs (of all ages) get the vaccine before most of the public

Almost certainly. I don't suppose children will get a look in, even vulnerable ones, as we've just had a school letter saying those children who previously were considered high risk are no longer considered it and will have to get a GP letter saying they are.

[quote Unsure33]@SheepandCow

Yes but when they have enough vaccine you will be able to get it probably in Superdrug or boots like you do with the normal flu vaccine now ?

My work pay for mine or I pay myself .

Try to look forward .[/quote]
There are no flu vaccines to be found in pharmacies now, at least not the ones near me. There has been a shortage this year, more than usual.

It hasn’t been tested on children, so no, they won’t get it. Tbf the death rate in children is absolutely minuscule. They’re at more risk from flu.

I would be so interested to know the number of people on this thread who have had confirmed corona

Minuscule I’d say

Age increases risk, but I am pretty sure it's incremental (BMJ article here: www.bmj.com/content/370/bmj.m3259 seems to agree). So a 45 year old is at more risk than a 40 year old, but less risk than a 50 year old. The 40 year old would be at more risk than a 30 year old. Where the age cut off should be presumably depends on practical factors such as the total amount of vaccine available, but also on factors like the risk of (rare) adverse vaccine effects.

JamieLeeCurtains posted:

"Tooting, bugles and the army flanking.

Fuck off, Johnson, you insane arsehole."

Ha ha ha! @JamieLeeCurtains I take it that you're not a fan of his then?

I quite liked all the military and weaponry references that Bojo used - after all, this is something of a battle against the virus. I enjoyed this press conference, and was pleased that Bojo and Van Tam stressed that people need to hold fast and follow the rules for a few more weeks - the last thing we need is people throwing caution to the wind at this stage.

I think they'd like to eventually get it to children, at least vulnerable ones.

It's true that it needs to be tested first
Can't remember which vaccine but I read last week that one of the developers is planning to start trials on children at some point.

In the meantime they really should allow vulnerable children (or those living with vulnerable adults) to choose to stay off school temporarily without penalty.

This teenage girl wrote to Rishi. She's vulnerable - as is her mum, who she cares for. It's cruel to force her to go to school.
www.gazettelive.co.uk/news/teesside-news/high-risk-teen-pens-letter-19218044

[quote Unsure33]@SheepandCow

Yes but when they have enough vaccine you will be able to get it probably in Superdrug or boots like you do with the normal flu vaccine now ?

My work pay for mine or I pay myself .

Try to look forward .[/quote]
Given that the pfizer vaccines needs to be stored at minus 80 degrees then unfortunately I don't think we will be able to buy it at superdrug or Boots. Hopefully there will be some vaccination centres where you can buy it but I imagine they will be in big cities only.

@110APiccadilly

Age increases risk, but I am pretty sure it's incremental (BMJ article here: www.bmj.com/content/370/bmj.m3259 seems to agree). So a 45 year old is at more risk than a 40 year old, but less risk than a 50 year old. The 40 year old would be at more risk than a 30 year old. Where the age cut off should be presumably depends on practical factors such as the total amount of vaccine available, but also on factors like the risk of (rare) adverse vaccine effects.

Yes that's true. But - the data shows that there's quite a significant jump from 45. JVT incorrectly said it was 50.

Remember the graphs from last week's press conference. They clearly showed the risk (of hospitalisation or death) went up noticeably after 45.

Think about the recent reported deaths. Mostly it's been from mid 40s upwards.

@Jroseforever

I would be so interested to know the number of people on this thread who have had confirmed corona

Minuscule I’d say

I have. I’m just starting to feel better.

Why, anyway jrose?

I'm looking for stats, a graph, to illustrate the gradient change by age for severity of outcome.

I'm sure I've seen one that shows a dramatic increase, worsening in outcome over 45 years but with a significant further gradient increase at 50 ish.

As I said, it depends where you see the gradient denoting 'dramatic''!

@SheepandCow This was on Talking Pictures TV a while ago. Fiction obvs but still an interesting watch

www.imdb.com/title/tt0056802/

@pussycatinboots

Sheep what's the average age of the cabinet? what's the average age of a conservative voter?

You've forgotten the Tory donors. They come between the cabinet and the voters.

If members of the family then they will be immunised and then it won’t matter if the students bring it home.

That's not going to happen before Christmas though. And definitely not before the students start coming home.

First they need to get the safety data, which they are expecting in the 3rd week of Nov. Then they need to get it approved by the MHRA, then we need to organise getting hold of it and rolling it out. And from that point people will need 2 jabs, 3 weeks apart + another 2 weeks to assume immunity.

While you might expect some immunity after the 1st jab, it would be incredibly irresponsible for the government to assume immunity amongst the vaccinated CEV would allow students to go home and it wouldn't matter. If the government were irresponsible to suggest this as a course of action I think that SAGE and the NHS would be giving a different message.

@Travelledtheworld

He has always spoken like that but he might be extra tired .

I'll check it out @MercyBooth
Thanks for the recommendation.

@JS87

I would think the army might get involved then with logistics. But it’s irrelevant as the first 40 million will be allocated to the 20 million most at risk .

The next stage might be more interesting .

@CuriousaboutSamphire Fig 2 in this article? Though it looks like a pretty flat line to me - I'm not seeing any particular jumps (except at the bottom around children's risks) www.bmj.com/content/370/bmj.m3259

No worries. There are flaws but it gives an idea of how things used to be done.