Does anyone think lockdown will carry on past 2nd December round?

[Viv0321]

Does anyone think lockdown will carry on past 2nd December round?

No.

From the Zoe app there is a levelling off of new cases and even a slight reduction. This had been apparent for the last week, so obviously due to tier restrictions. So I think numbers will come down nicely once we have ‘locked down’ (although there might be a slight lag).

However I think we will have another month of lockdown come January. Maybe mid January. Maybe a two week circuit breaker if we get the timing right.

Rinse and repeat until we have a vaccine. Which will hopefully be in spring/early summer.

I think part of the problem is beyond preventing hospitals being overrun there is no real clear cut statement of what they want this to achieve so the goalposts can be moved to suit whatever rhetoric they decide upon
There have been mumblings if reducing R down to one but presume that won’t be set it stone and has mainly been Michael Gove
We are in a circling holding pattern for a month I assume to allow the vaccine programmes to be checked in the hope for a December starting to roll out. I think this has been gambled on so as info starts coming out the picture will be clearer

Does anyone actually think the restrictions will be lifted on 2nd?

We’ll only get placed back into tier 3 anyway despite my area having 17 cases in the past week (not per 100000, 17 in total).

If it makes anyone feel better, Belgium's hospitals are about to be overwhelmed and they're doing worse than us. We're usually about a month behind countries like Spain, France etc.

@LadyCatStark

Does anyone actually think the restrictions will be lifted on 2nd?

We’ll only get placed back into tier 3 anyway despite my area having 17 cases in the past week (not per 100000, 17 in total).

These numbers seem odd, 17 cases out of how many people? Areas in tier 3 have all got high rates, maybe you are in a rural portion of a high-rate council area?

The issue has been the government not moving up quickly enough.

In which case it will be the end of our economy and of Boris.

If businesses (restaurants, pubs. shops) lose the Christmas trade, many will just fold.

Tory MPs will start sharpening their knives to finish Johnson off in the New Year.

befuddled... they put the WHOLE north east into tier 3, thats a large chunk of the country made up mostly of rural villages and towns but because the cities (all small, close to each other and all with universities) where over run they put EVERYONE in lockdown for hundreds of miles regardless of cases.

there may have been 1000 cases in newcastle town center but that doesnt effect the rates in small villages 2 hours drive away but no the 'north' is all one blanket thing so we must all be punished.

I don't think so. I think we'll move to national tier 3 type restrictions after 2nd December so that shops can reopen. I do think we'll have another lockdown in the new year.

They’ll bring in tier 4 IMO

@Sweetchillijam

Yes, scary times especially with this idiot I’m alright Jack mentality I’ll take my chances with this virus attitude and no one is stopping me from doing X thats gained momentum since Dominic’s arsey entitled justifying rule breaking incident. I think they will relax it 2 weeks before Christmas knowing many people will break it then anyway and it will kick off again blaming families have spread it to their nearest and dearest.

It's pretty "I'm all right Jack" to say you'll do what suits you regardless of any potential effect on others - just because Cummings did.

@Aroundtheworldin80moves

I have a strong feeling that non essential shops will open for December. But not the pubs, gyms etc. And maybe schools shut.

Yes, I agree. I think they will end the lockdown on 2nd December in so far as they open non-essential shops (and maybe some services like driving lessons/tests and some outdoor leisure) but will leave hospitality and shut - drunken Christmas parties are not going to help anyone (other than the breweries).

They might close schools a week early and open them a week late in January.

@dangerrabbit

Boris said lockdown is definitely going to stop on 2nd December so I'm thinking lockdown will definitely continue.

Well yes, but they won't just say "sorry we're extending it" they will just change it a bit.

A bit like increasing NI and saying they're not increasing income tax. Well technically you're not, but....

It's always too little too late. Shorter sharper lockdowns before things got out of control would be so much better for the economy

Yes. Furlough has been extended until March which indicates they are planning, at least, a series of rolling lockdowns until then.

I think non-essential shops will open for December but shut again in January.

I think uni students going home and coming back will cause another surge because they won't have a strategy again. The government are also ignoring the secondary school situation which won't be solved by them pretending that it's not happening.

No

@Ohchristmastreeohchristmastree

No.

From the Zoe app there is a levelling off of new cases and even a slight reduction. This had been apparent for the last week, so obviously due to tier restrictions. So I think numbers will come down nicely once we have ‘locked down’ (although there might be a slight lag).

However I think we will have another month of lockdown come January. Maybe mid January. Maybe a two week circuit breaker if we get the timing right.

Rinse and repeat until we have a vaccine. Which will hopefully be in spring/early summer.

This is what I think.

I hope not as I want to see my family. I know people are going to flame me for this but I will still be going, regardless. I've followed the rules in place so far but this time I'm not doing it. Sick to death of it all now. I want to see my family, so I am going to.

people on other forums keep pointing out that the current lockdown furlough has been extended until March not December which would indicate the expect this to go on throughout winter.

There is no way in hell the gov will be wanting loads of people boozing it up on New Years Eve. Can you imagine the fall out 2/3 weeks later in case numbers? I think lockdown will lift around the 20th/22nd December, and be reinstated once everyone has safely travelled home after Christmas, so perhaps around the 28th/29th Dec. Otherwise NYE will happen as usual.
I'd be delighted to be wrong and they lift it earlier, I'm in a very low case Tier 1 area in the SW.

@mam0918

Yes, that’s what I think too. I would love to be wrong though.

Furlough does not equal this level of lockdown until March just some level of restrictions

I think schools will start Christmas holidays a couple of weeks earlier. Then they can trade off one source of transmition for another and let us see family and friends.

By Dec 2 they'll be saying it isn't effective enough. They'll continue the lockdown and close the schools from 4 December to early January. There will be a phased return to school.

Tiers will continue thereafter, with the possibility of further national lockdowns and school closures in February. With the aim of a gradual return to some-kind-of-normal (if anyone remembers what that is) by the end of April, if at all possible.

They'll continue the lockdown and close the schools from 4 December to early January. There will be a phased return to school

I doubt this will happen.