Secondary schools are fucked

[noblegiraffe]

The latest ONS data for infection rates in pupils in Y7-11 shows that they are now nearly as high for university students, the ones who were getting blamed for catching it at pubs and parties.

The latest data for number of cases per 100,000 in each year group looks alarming, even more so when you realise that the latest column is an underestimate. The figures for Y11 in particular are horrendous, and this is a crucial exam year group.

Attendance data for secondary schools is going down each week - 82% according to the latest data (excluding those on half term).

On 22nd October an estimated 557,000 pupils were off school, either isolating, or with covid (this includes primaries, I can't see the data for just secondaries).

On 22nd October, 55% of secondary schools had at least 1 pupil self-isolating due to contact with a case in school.

There is, as far as a I can see, no discussion from those in charge about what to do about this. Schools are a priority, except when it comes to talking about them. Data is hidden, covered up or just ignored. People use arguments about primary schools (parents need to work!) to apply to all ages of pupil.

Secondary schools were set up with 'bubbles'. Risk assessments were based on premise that bubbles would be mixing, and would be sent home if there were cases. This was abandoned a few weeks into term when the DfE elbowed PHE out of the way and took over the the decisions about who would be sent home. Now only 'close contacts' are sent home rather than whole bubbles, which makes no sense in the context of what we know about covid transmission in poorly ventilated spaces with no social distancing. Kids who were told that they could mix 'because they were in a bubble' are now wondering why they're in a bubble but not in a bubble in any meaningful sense.

If, when it comes to any upcoming lockdown, the message is 'schools will stay open' and there is no distinguishing between primary and secondary, and no discussion about how this trend in secondary can be addressed, then be aware that any lockdown isn't going to solve the problem because it's spreading in secondary schools.

PS: I don't want schools to close but they shouldn't stay open as they are because the data shows there's a real problem with as they are. I do want a discussion about specifically secondary so talk about primary elsewhere. If you find the data scary then that's a problem with the situation, not me posting it. I don't want any anecdotes about how your school hasn't had any cases unless you put the word 'yet' at the end of it. If your school has masks everywhere that's great for your school, but the government says their use should be avoided in classrooms and their use in corridors is only mandated in lockdown areas. Schools are not all open in Europe.

Some suggestions: masks, ventilation, review of who is being sent home, regular testing (especially if there are cases), review of fines for pupils who would be safer at home, review of working conditions for ECV teachers, it to be made clear that if a school sends your child home they are legally required to isolate.

I’m not sure a Classics grad is really equipped to be making these decisions.

But neither are SAGE, SAGE are only advising on the science around the pandemic spread (and that is far from settled with huge amounts of uncertainty); they are not advising on economics, employment, housing, logistics, business etc, or even wider public health. So decision will be presented as(numbers made up); if we shut lockdown for four weeks then there is a 70% chance that we can reduce infection rates by 50% and prevent 5,000 Covid deaths, but up 25,000 businesses may close resulting in the loss of 400,000 jobs, and 5,000 extra homeless, it will cost an extra £20 billion which will need to be paid back through reduced public expenditure on health over the next decade, it will result an extra 4,900 non-Covid related deaths...

Dd just home from school. She said her classmates were hugging each other after the half term. I don’t need SAGE nor Johnson - common sense dictates you either do a lockdown with secondary schools closed or don’t bother at all. What’s the point otherwise?

"But neither are SAGE, SAGE are only advising on the science around the pandemic spread (and that is far from settled with huge amounts of uncertainty); they are not advising on economics, employment, housing, logistics, business etc, or even wider public health. So decision will be presented as(numbers made up"
I doubt the government analyse it that thoroughly. We've yet to see any leaks from the treasury on the indirect costs of lockdown. If they were that thorough they might have realised that dithering for 6 weeks means that businesses would need to close for twice as long during one of the busiest shopping months of the year. That must have a higher cost.

They've not even said that we are closing For a month to keep schools open. The other option is to close schools and businesses for 2 weeks have they?

@noblegiraffe if they do end up closing schools again, as a teacher what do you think should happen to the exams? My dc is in year 11 and super stressed with the situation. Mocks in 3 weeks....

SAGE are only advising on the science around the pandemic spread

Indeed and even Rishi was convinced by their argument for a lockdown.

The secondary school issue is tough to justify. It doesn’t affect working parents (could open to Y7/8 if necessary) so you can’t make an economic argument like you can for primary.
It would make lockdown more effective so could potentially save jobs by making it shorter.

One suspects that Johnson is really avoiding shutting secondaries because then people will start asking where the laptops are. And after he’s just taken food from the mouths of hungry kids, admitting he’s fucked up their access to remote education too might be a bit much.

Actually SAGE have way more than just scientist on their membership. They do have economists, mathematicians, social scientists and behavioural scientists.

What they don't have is any educationalists. Not one has ever been consulted.

One suspects that Johnson is really avoiding shutting secondaries because then people will start asking where the laptops are

And what do with GCSE and A level exam year groups?

We can't have another fiasco like last year.

100% this: What’s the point otherwise?

A half-ass lockdown is worst than nothing... If we are going to compromisse the livelihood of some people lets at least do it right... two weeks full lockdown it would probably be much more efficient than 4 weeks with schools and universities running.

I wonder if they'll try to keep schools 'open' ie no blanket closure for the next four weeks then throw their hands up at all the people 'not following the rules' and close at least secondaries for an extended Xmas break?

Possibly, though they wouldn't do an extended break it would be a switch to online eduction.

Yes, I meant schools having their premises closed to all but key worker children.

They'll try to avoid this with primaries for childcare reasons, but I'm expecting some nudging towards closing the premises of secondary schools over the next few weeks.

Cases in my local authority area seem to be levelling out so maybe secondary schools are not fucked everywhere.

That’s cases in the under 20’s by the way.

That's really encouraging.

I dunno. They're all gun ho with their schools will stay open no matter what messaging. Maybe it's the one u turn they feel they cannot take especially with bloody labour saying they must distancing themselves from the unions or school staff safety. They seem to be out-torying the tories

This shows a similar trend nationally. Look at the drop in 11-19 year olds

The really interesting thing about the above chart is that the data is up to 26 October so it doesn’t even show the impact of half term.

I'm worried about the impact of half-term, especially rates of transmission amongst teenagers.

But let's see. Flattening at least would be very good news.

@Sonnenscheins I'd put that down to first year Uni students now having mostly been exposed and behaving perfectly. It's cut the cases in Unis massively in last weeks.

I'm worried about the impact of half-term, especially rates of transmission amongst teenagers.

But half term should have helped reduce transmission. Even in tier 2 they weren't able to meet any friends indoors.

@Sonnenscheins 😂😂😂😂😂😂😂gangs of teens out around here. Lots of different schools mixing. It's going to be a horrible few weeks.

My 16 year old ds has been at home during half term. As have all his school friends. They've played a lot of online games though.

Our school encouraged all parents to stick to the rules (tier 2) and I think most did and so did not let their kids and teens meet up others inside. And the bad weather didn't really allow much outside contact,

@mumsneedwine. Whereabouts do you live?

It actually makes me sad that many of us are following the rules when others ignore them

My two secondary children hardly went out at half-term either.

But I have seen plenty of big groups of teens in the local parks and shopping area.

I'm not criticising them btw. My children are at different schools so merrily potentially cross contaminating each other every day 'within the rules'.

@Sonnenscheins I live in a lovely leafy area. Lots of green spaces with kids using them to meet up outside. We are tier 1 so allowed I think. But not a great idea !

@Sonnenscheins

This shows a similar trend nationally. Look at the drop in 11-19 year olds

The spike and drop relates to the mass testing that uncovered lots of asymptomatic cases in universities a few weeks ago.

The rate of infection is what you need to look at not number of cases.