Data and Analysis Thread, started Oct 29

[PatriciaHolm]

With a link to the previous header for all the great links to data -

www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/4057030-Pure-data-thread-1-Daily-numbers-graphs-focused-analyses?

And with a polite plea to keep the focus on data and analysis if you please.

thanks all

Southampton had no stand out areas at all
Anecdata, but a relative went there and it was pretty much all SE / SW students, areas that haven't gone up so quickly in general.

Thanks so much boys. My lad is in Boultham area which seems a little lower but has a lot of student houses and a lot of shops. He hasn't actually heard of any cases other than a mate SI because of someone in his seminar group. I suspect the case in more rural Lincs are food factories and farms..

@Piggywaspushed

I need to stay away form the main corona boards! So much abuse, misuse and misunderstanding of data out there! It's not even funny , really.

I came to the same conclusion. The sheer stupidity of people is astounding.

Its I've wondered that too.,

Wow look at this

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/nov/01/half-slovakia-population-covid-tested-covid-one-day?CMP=ShareiOSAppp_Other

The thing is, if someone calls them out for poor use of data or just sheer wrongness they all say we are being patronising , so I ahve given up and retreated!

That Slovakia link is really interesting, two weekends to give everyone a double test... Amazing. It helps to be a little country with something like that, but I really hope it works for them. Their case numbers will look temporarily terrifying, but the comparison with their previous case numbers will be interesting too.

@Piggywaspushed
My husband phrased it nicely: once you start applying logic, let alone throw in numbers, you are the devil reincarnated. But if you have shamanistic powers you are applauded and loved by masses.
This is how great civilizations fall into the next dark ages.

Guess that explains Trump!

Agreed Piggy, I can't read any of those threads without getting really riled up and just baffled at the sheer cognitive dissonance and lack of critical thinking, and the same names spouting the same misinformation and agenda. It's really frustrating! I've always valued this thread and hope we can keep it going.
I know this is not an anecdata thread but my friend who is an ICU consultant and the most balanced, non dramatic person, is seriously worried about the readyness of hospitals for this. He reckons they are less ready than in the first wave because now they are expected to carry on as far as possible with usual treatment. He has been posting balanced and helpful data posts through all of this and tends to be on the optimistic side so to see him say this, obviously very concerned, is very worrying.

@Piggywaspushed - from time to time I drift into random threads, then get irritated and stop. It's nice when you see others that I think of as the data group. Yesterday I saw @Hmmph dipping into the same threads as me on the same mission to drop off the link to actual government guidance as opposed to whatever a bored poster thinks "makes sense". Today I engaged with a troll to try to extricate one or two they were drawing in, and saw @SeedsofaDream on the same mission. It can be frustrating though, for sure.

As someone in the NW I think a part of the flattening was due to us feeling like we were about to get new restrictions imposed any day now, for about 3 weeks before they actually came in. During that time people started modifying behaviour a bit and then the tier 3 came in and the impact of that was also felt. Difference between that and this seems to me that those in low infection levels didn’t seem to be anticipating this quite the same so it is more of a drastic behaviour switch, so will be interesting to see how quickly the rates come down.

It's a worry mad. they should ahve listened to doctors so much longer ago.

the whole narrative on secondary schools is changing now, too, acknowledging there is indeed transmission. It is a shame that is being roared down in a fair amount of panic and union bashing (and possibly union posturing but I don't share the view on that since I read a lot of Owen Jones! Not a discussion for this thread!). It stifles proper debate. The politicians , apart from Andy Burnham . won't take the discussion further either. The should have listened to MRex on that one!

Yes the Slovakia moonshot is fascinating. Not least as it may give a really accurate picture as to prevalence across all ages and also symptoms (given they're recording that.)

I think councils here have been offered the same but not many have taken it up from some reason. Wish I could find where I read that.

I wonder if Slovakia have the same level of suspicion and hostility that we do here?

I'm not sure many would comply in some areas, based on the other bbc news report about the guy who was a conspiracy theorist till a lot of his family ended up In icu.

It's been much more humid recently as my lungs will happily attest to.

Possible impact?

That's interesting @GetAMoveOnTroodon the first wave felt very much like that here (north Hampshire, very much London commuter belt). You could feel there was a problem, traffic decreased, kids were being pulled out of school.

Wonder how attendance is going to be going back next week.

There are scientists who have concerns about the rapid antigen tests considered for use in moonshot (similar to those being used in Slovakia).

For example the authors for this article, JD leads the Cochrane covid-19 test evaluation reviews and is a member of the Royal Statistical Society covid-19 task force steering group. AP is a member of independent SAGE.

www.bmj.com/content/370/bmj.m3699

@wonderstuff
I agree. The dc's school closed a day earlier than planned in March as they were down to less than 50% attendance of pupils and teachers.

We're SE, and were low at the time, and have stayed low. We haven't had that surge that some areas have had.

I know ds' year is going back tomorrow with still a good proportion missing as they were put into quarantine on the Wednesday before half term, so will still be in it.
The school is holding to "no known transmission in school/all independent" -they've had about 7 official positives but I know two of the cases don't know where they got it from (one does, and I have no idea about the others) so it's as likely they picked it up asymptomatically at school as anywhere else. One certainly isn't going anywhere other than school.

Slovakia has 2.85m citizens. Half the population 25,850 cases or 1%, so say 2% actually currently infected. 20% false negative rate usually, higher with this type of test, so say 2.5% positive and 71k cases.

ECDC: Had ~8861 cases in week 43 with 22.34% positivity. So 1/8 of the real cases. I'm really tempted to do dodgy maths back to a factor for positivity. We'd need a few more countries to join in.

That's interesting Choco, thank you.

Also explains why they're keen to only test symptomatic people.

Though why the pm was using mass testing as a "we're gonna beat this" thing I don't know...

I suppose the value to cutting the R number can in some circumstances outweigh the few people who may be self isolating unnecessarily for 10 days.

Especially if your health network is precariously close to capacity and cases are rocketing.

@NeurotrashWarrior - depends how they do it. Mass testing aligned with sewage testing to locate and shut down clusters could work very well, an extension on the type of thing Japan were doing with cluster testing and that seemed to work. (I don't know if they'll use sewage, but they should!!)

@MRex Slovakia's population is 5.5 million, perhaps you confused that country with Slovenia?

Aaaargh! Quite correct @TunMahla.
Slovakia population 5,450,421; 9472 cases in week 42; positivity 13.58%.

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