Data and Analysis Thread, started Oct 29

[PatriciaHolm]

With a link to the previous header for all the great links to data -

www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/4057030-Pure-data-thread-1-Daily-numbers-graphs-focused-analyses?

And with a polite plea to keep the focus on data and analysis if you please.

thanks all

Well Scotland has had no indoor home visiting and only meeting up with a Mac of 6 people from 2 households since about the 23rd September and the Central Belt has done almost 3 weeks of licenced hospitality being shut...and our daily infection rate is starting to decrease.
Teachers and S4-6 ( think that's year 11-13) have to wear masks all the time in schools from Monday. We'll see what happens to the numbers.

My mistake; Germany moves to blended learning when infections are over 50/100,000

www.nytimes.com/2020/10/29/world/europe/schools-coronavirus-europe-lockdowns.html

I’ve merged the gov.coronavirus data with the ONS MSOA information, to show the most ‘at risk’ areas from the perspective of hospitalisations.

Method; multiplying the rate in the last 7 days of cases by the % population over 65. In my view these are the most concerning areas be university towns with sky high cases numbers.

Two charts, one sorted by rate by cases and one sorted by rate per >65.

Attached

@loftyloft Featherstone (4th line down in your first picture) has a big prison and there is an outbreak there.

Hello data thread people!

squashedbybiscuits Yes there is a huge qualification required that it doesn’t take into account ‘clusters’ and assumes even distribution.
The ideal is that the government are sharing cases by age with the local hospitals, as that is the best indicator of how many people will be hospitalised over the next 10 days.

@Perihelion

Well Scotland has had no indoor home visiting and only meeting up with a Mac of 6 people from 2 households since about the 23rd September and the Central Belt has done almost 3 weeks of licenced hospitality being shut...and our daily infection rate is starting to decrease. Teachers and S4-6 ( think that's year 11-13) have to wear masks all the time in schools from Monday. We'll see what happens to the numbers.

Your typo of Mac for Max when referring to Scotland has given me a much needed chuckle this morning!

I saw this graph on the bbc website. Does anyone know where I can find more info on the different approaches each model takes?

@BigBadBox - some are explained here, you might need to loo the others up independently or dig for more details: ourworldindata.org/covid-models.
YYG is included there but not in anything UK government would look at, it's usually out of step and not worth looking at.

@MRex Thanks

update on council area positivity rates (P2) with DoT (direction of travel) column added as requested.

In terms of the 7 day figures : light green less than 2%, light blue 2% to 4.9%; puce 5% to 9.9%; amber 10% to 14.9% and 15% and over red.

DoT shows green if the latest figure has decreased by 2% points as compared to last week; and red if increased by 2% points or more. At the moment far more reds than greens.

UTLAs attached and district council areas to follow in next post.

and the district council areas

UK Deaths today 162

Cases 23254

I need to stay away form the main corona boards! So much abuse, misuse and misunderstanding of data out there! It's not even funny , really.

Thanks @boys3, glimmers of improvement in Yorkshire as well as NE, though it's very patchy. Derby, Warwickshire and a few other areas look to have started a quick nosedive, the lockdown is good timing for them.

I know we are all in Lockdown now but looking at those boys , i do find it bonkers that NE Lincs and N Lincs went up a tier but not Lincoln. It looks to be in a spot of bother. And si totally surrounded by areas in a higher tier.

Don’t suppose anyone has a link to the rolling death rates, I’m wondering if 162 is high for a Sunday?

@ChristmasCantComeSoonEnough

Don’t suppose anyone has a link to the rolling death rates, I’m wondering if 162 is high for a Sunday?

I don't think so. The rates this week have been around 300, so 162 is approximately half, the average over this week was 260

Last Sundays was 151, which was a bit high for that week as they were generally lower. The average that week was 179, so only just below average.

@ChristmasCantComeSoonEnough - click on "data" and you will see a table: coronavirus.data.gov.uk/deaths

Boys3 those tables do make it clear what is happening, well it makes it clear for me so thank you they are much appreciated.

Can someone correct me if I'm wrong?

The areas in tier 3 are flattening out after just a week or so.

Other areas in south are increasing.

Overall cases have been lower past 5 days?

So why not our whole country into tier 3 or even some areas into tier 2 quicker rather than whole lockdown?

@Piggywaspushed. I had a quick look at the MSOA map on the dashboard yesterday evening. The uni area MSOA in Lincoln was close to 700 cases per 100,000 for the most recent 7 days. I trust your Ds who is there is safe and well.

I had a quick look at a couple of other smaller uni cities - my DS2 at UEA, Norwich is relatively low overall and the uni MSOA was just over 200 per 100,000; similar picture at Kent uni MSOA in Canterbury.in contrast Loughborough uni MSOA was over 1400! Southampton had no stand out areas at all. If I get a chance I’ll have a more detailed look at the local rates for a wider range of uni areas. Lincoln of course did start back a lot later than many.

It feels to me as though the Government keep veering between strategies and so we end up with the worst of all worlds.

If they were convinced by the Tier system (and areas in Tier 3 do seem to be levelling off) then they should have held their nerve for a few more weeks. If they weren't convinced the Tier system was going to work they should have locked down earlier.

Instead we seem to be simultaneously doing both and neither. I am SE so hoping the lockdown really drives the numbers back down here. Also keeping everything crossed for those in the North that if Tier 3 has been working the lockdown will make a reasonable difference there too.