Data and Analysis Thread, started Oct 29

[PatriciaHolm]

With a link to the previous header for all the great links to data -

www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/4057030-Pure-data-thread-1-Daily-numbers-graphs-focused-analyses?

And with a polite plea to keep the focus on data and analysis if you please.

thanks all

So sorry to hear about your DC’s friend Pink.

WRT secondary schools on rotas, two of our nearby (NW) secondaries have gone to rotas from today for the rest of this term, I’m sure they won’t be the only ones but they’re the ones I know about

DD's sixth form has done a week on week off rota since the start of term, with online lessons in the alternate week. It works fine and I'm sure helps prevent outbreaks as there's effectively a fire break every other week.

@jackham there was a recent young tragic COVID death in Northern Ireland, which was quite widely reported, however, the poor family are in the throes of grief and their statement has been twisted by COVID deniers on social media, so I imagine that has also made the media more cautious on picking up and reporting these deaths

I presume that is a sixth form college? they are allowed to do this, where schools with sixth forms (ie the majority of sixth form settings) are not...

Bavarian study of over 15,000 children and babies shows sixfold rate of infection compared to known rates:

https://www.cell.com/med/fulltext/S2666-6340%2820%2930020-9?fbclid=IwAR0xTho7oqo42rQWEAU1v-M2988a9JWTTQnGagYT11_EkjkrP6Mpb3lKMHI

That research says seroprevalence was 6 times higher in April 2020 than the official figures, and very variable by region. In March 2020 cases are thought to have been ten times higher than official figures (www.theguardian.com/world/2020/may/04/german-covid-19-cases-may-be-10-times-higher-than-official-figures) and Bavaria was particularly hard hit. I'm not sure why we wouldn't expect higher seroprevalence from higher case numbers?

Ah @mrex I didn't read all of it, but thought dates ran into summer, will look again.

The study ran Jan to July by the looks of it. In the absence of Bigchoc, I wonder if any German-dwellers could comment?

Or if @BigChocFrenzy could come back, given that this is a genuine data emergency needing her help?

Very exciting news on the Pfizer vaccine BBC News - Covid vaccine: First vaccine offers 90% protection
www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-54873105

wonderful news

Can someone point me in the direction of London Borough data please, specifically number of tests carried out vs. positives.

Mine seems determined to be top of the league table although a new testing centre opened up recently so i'm half hoping its just because more positives are being picked up.

Thanks

Brilliant news. Was announced last week that gps would be rolling it out, most likely via a central identified practice due to the logistics involved and storage needed.

I imagine the need to have two doses, three weeks apart, will cause quite a few logistical/messaging problems too.

Going back to half term, 15% of council areas had 2 weeks off starting Monday 19th so majority were one week starting the week after.

Does anyone know (or would like to guess) how far the 20 million people being vaccinated (40 million does bought, but everyone needs 2) will take us down the vaccine priority list?

older adults’ resident in a care home and care home workers1
all those 80 years of age and over and health and social care workers1
all those 75 years of age and over
all those 70 years of age and over
all those 65 years of age and over
high-risk adults under 65 years of age
moderate-risk adults under 65 years of age
all those 60 years of age and over
all those 55 years of age and over
all those 50 years of age and over
rest of the population (priority to be determined)

There are 3.2 million over 80s for a start...

11.9 million over 65.

That's assuming the 40million doses brought means 20million people can get it. It could still be 40m, it will depend how it is manufactured and distributed

@Hmmph That's a good question. The more up to date info I've managed to find suggests the UK has purchased 30m doses, so enough for 15m people, not 20. Looking at ONS age groups alpine that would take you down to about age 60 (or age 55 if I'm wrong and you're right about the number of doses purchased). Prioritising health care workers and vulnerable younger adults would obviously mean you need to set the age limit for others higher. It's hard to calculate how many NHS/care workers there are because we don't know what definitions they'll use. We also don't know how many people will refuse the vaccine. The more the better for the first few months until they get to me on their priority list!

That should have said ONS age groups alone (not alpine!) Btw

@Firefliess this is from the bbc article

"The UK should get 10 million doses by the end of the year, with a further 30 million doses already ordered."

So 40m in total

Prof John Bell was apparently saying on radio 4 at lunchtime that the fact the Pfizer vaccine works so well is a sign the other 2 front runners are likely to as well as they have shown up similarly wrt other indicators. So there’s a good chance we will also have doses of Astra Zeneca to put into the equation.

@Hmmph - Usual flu vaccine is offered to 30 million, so would need 60 million to do vulnerable plus healthcare workers. However, none of the vaccines have been developed for children yet and teachers are being added to the list.

This has links to population stats: www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/populationandmigration/populationestimates/datasets/populationestimatesforukenglandandwalesscotlandandnorthernireland, care home stats: www.ons.gov.uk/aboutus/transparencyandgovernance/freedomofinformationfoi/carehomeresidents.

Age Groups
0-4: 3,857,263
5-9: 4,149,852
10-14: 3,953,866
15-19: 3,656,968
20-24: 4,153,080
25-29: 4,514,249
30-34: 4,497,132
35-39: 4,395,667
40-44: 4,019,539
45-49: 4,402,122
50-54: 4,661,015
55-59: 4,405,908
60-64: 3,755,185
65-69: 3,368,199
70-74: 3,318,867
75-79: 2,325,296
80-84: 1,715,328
85-89: 1,042,090
90 and over: 605,181

So, at 5m doses...
It would do older care home residents 300k, 500k care home staff (www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/impactofcoronavirusincarehomesinenglandvivaldi/26mayto19june2020), 1.4m NHS. That's 2.2m.

The remainder of the 85s are 1.3m (only 15% in care homes). Up to 3.5m.

Now there's a choice to be made. Do the other 1.5m doses
cover:

1. 80-85yo - 1.7m (presume some unsuitable/ refusal and still run out)
2. ECV (not sure how many in this category now) and/or their household members and carers if they can't have it
3. Teachers, TAs, other school staff - 1m
4. Others required to provide risky close-contact care (varying degrees of risk): private healthcare staff, dentists, opticians, vets, health visitors.

@Augustbreeze

I imagine the need to have two doses, three weeks apart, will cause quite a few logistical/messaging problems too.

Yes.

This is exactly the vaccine a Gp friend in a commissioning role has been telling me about since September, and that they've been telling local authorities to be ready to roll it out, sorting out the logistics.

It's a massive job.