Data and Analysis Thread, started Oct 29

[PatriciaHolm]

With a link to the previous header for all the great links to data -

www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/4057030-Pure-data-thread-1-Daily-numbers-graphs-focused-analyses?

And with a polite plea to keep the focus on data and analysis if you please.

thanks all

Thank you will look at it now

I am quite shocked that there have been 22 deaths of very young people. The first death of a teen (back in April?) was widely reported. I didn't realise there had been more than one or two since, nor that 4 had no underlying condition . I am glad for the families that it wasn't focused on but I ahve not even heard a whisper.

we just received news from dc sportsclub that one of their peers, without known underlying issues, has died of covid. 14 years old.
dc are devastated.

@Sunshinegirl82

This shows positives by age range (credit to RP131 on Twitter) Due to the incubation period you wouldn't see an immediate drop in infections on the first day of the holiday. The drop should filter through a week or so after the time off.

I think it's more likely that people simply didn't get tested during the half term break (hence the big spike on 2/11 when everyone started getting tested again!)

I think clumping the 10-19s as a single age band is misleading. Attached is the split showing the 10-14 and 15-19 7 day rate since 1st September. We could so though with a 15-17 and 18-19 split as I think they would also differ markedly.

@boys3

That's really interesting. I'm by no means an expert but I can't really see any significant impact from half term, not yet anyway. Unless I'm missing something?

Thanks for the graph @boys3 What it says to me is that we shouldn't be too fussed about schools or half terms, but in students. The huge impact of students studying and living together is far more marked than any visible impact of schools. Schools don't appear to be a major driver is rising cases. Universities clearly were though.

Without positivity rates you cannot judge that graph though. Remember only symptomatic school kids get tested, and more than 90% will be asymptomatic. The younger they are, the more likely to be asymptomatic.

Universities did mass testing. Despite what the government said would happen, there has been no mass testing in schools.

@Augustbreeze it’s here . Definitely updated from July as I remember reading the July version and this is definitely different.

As in the document different, I’m not sure about the Autumn bit.

Mass testing of asymptomatic students has only happened in a few places as far as I'm aware. But it would lead to lower positivity rates, not higher. The only plausible explanation for the dramatic rise in cases in both student age groups and university cities occuring from late September onwards is the spread between students, which in many places then spread out to the wider population.

Yes but that graph is of positives. Not positivity rates

Oh pink

@pinkbalconyrailing that is such sad news. His poor family.

That graph that shows positivity rate. So local town, Guildford, cases are falling, but the positivity rate is rising. Now, either that means fewer people are getting tests, or that the locals are more restrained in getting tests. I am not sure the positivity tells you much, unless it is matched by the numbers of people tested.

Example 100 people with symptoms get tested, 10 people are positive, positivity is 10%, not unexpected, as they all had symptoms.

500 people with and without symptoms get tested, 10 people are positive, positivity 2%, but then most had no symptoms.

You still have 10 people positive out of your total population regardless.

Yes @Reastie, reading the introduction to that document I see what you mean, it does have hints that things may well change.

Mass testing of asymptomatic students has only happened in a few places as far as I'm aware. But it would lead to lower positivity rates, not higher

No it wouldn't, mass testing of asymptomatic, but likely positive, will lead to higher positivity rates among the groups where the majority of cases are asymptomatic - which it is with any young healthy people. So, testing symptomatic students will only catch 1 in 5 student cases (maybe), whereas testing all students who are close contacts of that case will lead to a higher positivity rate, not a lower one.

If it was pure testing of all students, then that would only apply of course if the prevalence in the population was higher than the positivity rate of those with any testable symptoms, but even the places that engaged in mass testing only did it in halls etc. where it was very likely that the prevalence was high.

I don't think that's been the case though @sirfred See www.cam.ac.uk/coronavirus/stay-safe-cambridge-uni/data-from-covid-19-testing-service

for example in Cambridge where the university is publishing figures for both the symptomatic and asymptomatic testing that they're carrying out. The positivity rate for the symptomatic students is running above 10% each week, but the rate for asymptomatic students is less than 1%. In general, we've seen positivity rates broadly track case rates as both have risen together, and places with spikes in cases also seeing higher positivity rates. I would guess that's because the number of worried well/people with other viruses is roughly steady, but as Covid cases rise, so too does the positivity rate.

@pinkbalconyrailing that's terrible. to you and your children. I know I'll be holding my 14 year old a bit closer tonight.

Sorry I managed to delete the part of my post that said thinking also of his poor family tonight.

@pinkbalconyrailing that is absolutely shocking. Why aren't these deaths being reported? Unbelievable amount of silence going on.

@Jackham I guess the rare deaths of children aren't being reported because after the first one or two, it's no longer news. Just like it's not headline news when teenagers die from meningitis, asthma, pneumonia, cancer, etc. All rare, but between them kill several hundred teenagers a year. Can't all be headline news. I knew a healthy 16 year old who died from flu a few years back. Ordinary flu FFS. Completely ripped his family apart, awful, awful thing. But was just a really rare fluke event and didn't hit the headlines.

it's suddenly very 'real' for dc.
until now they read about hospital cases and deaths of covid in the news and a few peers at schoolad been ill with mild symptoms.

wrt news, I guess many of young people dying will not make 'national' news unless they are famous. but will probably be remembered in school newsletters or similar.

Re the schools thing : I think that edit is there because at the moment , all schools are being told to stay open. After Dec 2nd , some areas may not get out of full lockdown. According to my head, there are potential plans to get secondary schools in those areas back on rotas...

Sorry to hear about your DC's friend @pinkbalconyrailing, it always feels harder when a child dies than an adult.